Kerry/Edwards could win NC!

[ButterflyBlood]

http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html

a Kerry/Edwards ticket makes it a statistical tie, */Cheney ahead only by 1!

Let's not also forget, having Edwards on the ticket will make keeping that Senate seat a lot easier...

[physioex]

1. I've been saying that for the longest time...

Also Richardson would be a great pick to help out in NM.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. Yep, yep.

I agree 100%. And, it's 15 EVs.:thumbsup:

[freetobegay]

3. How does that ticket fair in the other 49 States?

[Cuban_Liberal]

4. As well as some and better than most, most likely. n/t

[ButterflyBlood]

5. It'd work well in WV and OH

because of Edwards' populism and the fact that he also comes from a pretty protectionist state.

Also since he's another southerner, it'd make winning Arkansas a lot easier, the only other southern state it looks like Kerry has a chance in.

[DjTj]

6. If we win NC we're winning more than half the states...

I can't think of any scenario where we win NC and don't win the White House.

[Darkamber]

7. That's pretty true...if we could win back the south...

That would really start to change things. Also...SC could very well go to Kerry as well with a Kerry/Edwards ticket. Not to mention OH and FL...etc.

[chimpymustgo]

8. This is big. If NC comes along, so do many others.

Kerry/Edwards '04. And beyond...

[David Dunham]

9. Kerry-Edwards is a winner.

[GreenInNC]

10. Kerry/Edwards

they would win our state, no doubt about it.

[Nimble_Idea]

11. sorry its all a fantasy, NC is home to the modern KKK movement

even if Bill Goat Grahm was on the ticket with Kerry, he wouldn't sniff getting within 5% of getting NC.

[chimpymustgo]

12. Well, the WRAL-TV poll says otherwise!

I'll take their poll over your "assertion".

Kerry/Edwards '04. And beyond...

[Nimble_Idea]

13. yeah you do that, WRAL is a kkk plant I bet

you believe the TV?? hahahah

[abburdlen]

16. I got a nimble idea...

You might try letting go of your stereotypical image of NC being one big clan rally.

[surfermaw]

19. Edwards & Kerry will carry North Carolina

Things are a changing in the south..

[GOPBasher]

14. If we're even close in NC, we're winning the nation in a landslide.

[Padraig18]

15. If it helps that much in NC, think of how much it helps elsewhere.

:)

[fujiyama]

17. I think I saw

earlier polls showing Edwards as the nominee actually beating Bush in NC.

Either way, this is good news. I think it shows that Edwards has a lot of supporters in his state...and I would assume from his support in the primaries, throughout the party and the nation. While I favor Clark over Edwards (but slightly) for VP, I really wouldn't be dissapointed the least if Edwards was chosen. I just hope it's not Gep.

[Catholic Sensation]

18. the democrat who lost to dole mounted a valiant campaign given

the remarkably short time he had to campaign (god damn primaries were held in september), so this area is far more democratic than previously thought.

[surfermaw]

20. Right more democratic than you thought

Eastern part of state is heavily democratic, but has gone Republican sine the 70's..with Bush and tobacco and Edwards as VP.. I really think the state will go Democratic. Republicans are angry with Bush most not saying any thing, few saying they won't vote for Bush.. I think many will just stay home on election day

[Kerry Edwards 2004]

21. Bush on the run!

I think we will chase Bush all the way back to TX and then we will take Texas! ha! ha! When we boot him out of TX, maybe we should send Bush to Iraq. Let him see first hand the damage that he has done to our reputation around the world.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

22. It's a fantasy

NC is solid red, culturally. They might be complaining about W now, sending a message, and they may puke when they do it, but they are going to pull the red lever in November.

In 16-20 years NC will have enough northeastern transplants and well-educated people > 30 (assuming under 30's continue not to vote) to move to the center and then it will be competitive. Till then, fugghetaboutit.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Kerry will probably need a substantial national margin to contend in NC

Here are the presidential percentages in North Carolina since '88, with comparison to the national average:

'88: Bush (57.97 - 41.71) = + 8.54% Republican
'92: Bush (43.44 - 42.65) = + 6.35% Republican
'96: Dole (48.73 - 44.04) = + 13.22% Republican
'00: Bush (56.03 - 43.20) = + 13.34% Republican

Clinton failed to carry the state despite roughly a 5 1/2 point national margin in '92 and 8 1/2 point national margin in '96. In the 50/50 race of 2000, Bush belted Gore by nearly 13 percent.

A presidential or vice presidential nominee normally receives at least a 4 point bump in his home state, especially during the first cycle after a lengthy absence of no one from that state on the national ticket. We did much better in Tennessee in relation to the national average in '92, '96 and even 2000 with Gore on the ticket than Dukakis faired there in '88.

1992 is very interesting because Clinton only lost by 1 point in North Carolina, as the nation rejected faltering and out of touch Bush 41. That indicates a Kerry/Edwards ticket COULD carry the state, but it would probably take about a 3-5 point national margin for Kerry over Bush to do so.

Once again, these best case scenario states are irrelevant. If we carry them it means we are winning everything significant, a semi landslide electorally.

Also, I would caution this 46-45 poll comes at a period with Kerry probably with a legit lead of about 5 points nationally. North Carolina will widen if Kerry's national lead does not hold.