Why is New Jersey so close?...

[Nimble_Idea]

Does anyone know what the Jewish Population of NJ is? And has anyone done a poll in Holy Joe's state? I think people in the Dem party underestimate how much their base is going to sell them out.

I could be wrong? :shrug: Does anyone have some stats??

[Melodybe]

1. I don't believe that poll, my grandparents live in Jersey and my grandma

says that nobody she knows is voting for Bush. That includes all of her repub friends. To quote one of them, "I should have listened to you Grace (my grandma), Bush is a total disaster."

[NNadir]

2. Speaking only for myself, New Jersey is close because of gravity.

I'm standing on it.

Last time I looked, my state had nothing to do with Holy Joe. He's from Connecticut. He might have moved here recently, but if so, no one told me about it.

I have a Jewish neighbor. That means the Jewish population is at least one. She's voting for John Kerry. So am I, although I'm not Jewish. I don't know what that has to do with anything.

[JI7]

3. mcgreevey ?

[mot78]

4. Democrate took the State Senate last November despite McGreevy

McGreevy was also beating Schundler and Forester in a recent hypothetical poll for 2005. He's not a factor

BTW, this isn't the first tiem NJ has been labled a swing state. Check this out:
http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=126-3

My theory is that NJ, which was once a solidly Repug state (Clinton only won there by 2 points in '92, although in a landslide in '96) and many of the "registered voters" are probably people who haven't voted in years. Some recent polls in CA have been in a similar way. CA and NJ are both similar in that they were red states during the Reagan/Bush 41 era, yet they are now solid blue states, although not a solid as MA or NY are.

[July]

5. I don't believe it.

Wasn't there a poll last week that had Kerry ahead in NJ by 51-39 (I think those were the numbers, and I think it was Rasmussen)?

I live in NJ, and in the recent local elections Democrats were elected to several town councils and mayoralties, changing the makeup from all-Republican to bipartisan. The Republicans are still in the majority in the towns near where I live, but things are changing.

Just my anecdote, and I do have Bush Koolaid drinkers on either side of me.

[GalleryGod]

6. Quinnipac Poll is Bullshit! Pro-life,Pro-Guns! Anti Environment stands

Is the Holy Trinity of Defeat in New Jersey !

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

7. I live in New Jersey

I really can't see *bush winning it! I just can't!

I think New Jersey hasn't really focused in on the election yet. From my vantage point I haven't seen many bumper stickers, etc. to tell me otherwise.

[Zynx]

8. Kerry's numbers are understated.

Bush's 43% is about what he will get there in November, but Kerry's current numbers in the high forties will increase as we approach the election.

[Monte Carlo]

9. I get the feeling McGreevey reflects on the Dems very badly.

From what I understand, he's more than likely to be a corrupt governor, or maybe just incompetent. He's very unpopular in his own state right now.

That said, I still don't think Bush has much of a chance in NJ. It's just not a Republican state.

[dolstein]

10. New Jersey was traditionally a Republican state

Reagan carried it twice. Bush Sr. carried it. Once the Democrats began nominating moderates like Clinton and Gore, it appeared to become solidly Democratic. Pretty soon, many Democrats who really ought to know better began assuming that New Jersey would go Democratic regardless of who the nominee was.

[Nicholas_J]

11. It was only one poll

And a bit suspect at that. What I have been notincing is a pattern in states where Kerry has been foing double digits over Bush, for a poll to suddenly come out, usually not one by a major pollster, which indicated that Bush has suddenly caught up to Kerry. I think this is an attempt to influence voter behavior, as frequently during elections, if a candidate is very far behind, people just bother to come out and vote for that parties candidate as they figure it is a done deal. It is even worse on election day. Remember the criticism about Fox reporting the Bush was winning the popular vote very early in the evening. before the polls had closed in the midwest. It was finally determined that these reports led to a lot of voters who were preparing to vote, deciding that Bush was already the winner, so many did not bother to go out to vote. This is just an early version of that strategy, with reverse intention. If too many Republicans think that Kerry is so far ahead that he is going to win no matter what, many simply may not vote, where if they are led to beleive tbe race is very very close, they will be more likely to thik that it is necessary for them to get out to tip the balance.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. There have been several polls

I believe 3 of them had it close and 1 had Kerry easily winning.

Still, Kerry will win this state in November. New Jersey is notorious for deciding late. The polls here are always close, and they were for some time in 2000. But, this state has become very liberal in recent years and all signs show it getting more and more solidly democratic. One example is how in 2002 Lautenberg won in a controversial situation simply because he was a democrat.

In the latest Qunnipiac poll, the jewish vote would go 56% to Kerry, 29% to Bush, 5% to Nader, 2% someone else, and 8% undecided. NJ does have the second largest percentage of jews, I believe, of any state, but I doubt that any move toward Bush would change much. For instance, a solid majority of NJ jewish voters support gay marriage, so I don't think those votes will be going over to Bush anytime soon.

[zulchzulu]

13. Too many couch potatos enamored with reality TV shows

Why the hell would someone want to know about issues like healthcare, the environment, matters concerning SCOTUS, etc. when you can watch Survivor reruns.

No, SCOTUS is not a disease. Well.. OK, it's sick right now...oh never mind.

[Free_Thinker]

14. No Way

I cannot believe that NJ will go for Smirk, no way.
I know there is the example of the AIPAC convention earlier this week with the chants of "4 more years" for Smirk but let's wait and see what happens, because I don't have a clue as to what more of an outreach we can do in that particular voting bloc.

[Finch]

15. The poll is cracked and poor...

Bush within one of Kerry in CA... Kerry leading by seven in Ohio!... its the summer and a pollster Friend of mine (who happens to be a libertarian) said you're best to trust Mason-Dixon, if any one...