Okay, electoral strategists.

[elperromagico]

In the six presidential elections held in the period from 1980-2000, 34 states (and the District of Columbia) have gone for the Democratic candidate at one point or another:

Arizona (1996)
Arkansas (1992, 1996)
California (1992, 1996, 2000)
Colorado (1992)
Connecticut (1992, 1996, 2000)
Delaware (1992, 1996, 2000)
District of Columbia (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Florida (1996)*
Georgia (1980, 1992)
Hawaii (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Illinois (1992, 1996, 2000)
Iowa (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Kentucky (1992, 1996)
Louisiana (1992, 1996)
Maine (1992, 1996, 2000)
Maryland (1980, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Massachusetts (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Michigan (1992, 1996, 2000)
Minnesota (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Missouri (1992, 1996)
Montana (1992)
Nevada (1992, 1996)
New Hampshire (1992, 1996)
New Jersey (1992, 1996, 2000)
New Mexico (1992, 1996, 2000)
New York (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Ohio (1992, 1996)
Oregon (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Pennsylvania (1992, 1996, 2000)
Rhode Island (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Tennessee (1992, 1996)
Vermont (1992, 1996, 2000)
Washington (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
West Virginia (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996)
Wisconsin (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)

All told, these states account for 403 electoral votes this year.

Most states won by a Democrat during this period: 32 states and the District of Columbia. (Clinton, 1992; current electoral vote value: 366)
Least states won by a Democrat during this period: 1 state and the District of Columbia. (Mondale, 1984; current electoral vote value: 13)

Let's assume for a moment that Kerry doesn't have a chance in any other states. Let's assume he can only draw a victory from these 34 states. Now, which of these states are winnable for Kerry this year, and which are practically impossible for him to win?

* Florida stolen.

[Bombtrack]

1. My votes for practically impossible

Montana, Kentucky, Georgia

All the rest are possible for him

[beyurslf]

2. And maybe TN should be added to the almost impossible list.

[elperromagico]

5. Self-delete.

Moved this post.

[elperromagico]

3. Okay, that brings Kerry down to 377 EVs,

still a comfortable margin by any standard.

[WI_DEM]

4. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Montana

I honestly don't think Kerry will win. If Gore couldn't win Tennessee, I don't think Kerry can. Of these four the one I think Kerry might have an outside chance in is Montana--only because the west is becoming more blue.

[elperromagico]

6. 366 EVs for Kerry.

Still very comfortable.

I doubt that Montana would swing to Kerry. Clinton only won it in a tight three-way race, and he won it by a narrow margin.

[WI_DEM]

8. true

and I say it is an outside chance. But Montana is getting more blue. The state will probably elect a Democratic governor this year too.

[NewJerseyDem]

19. Montana isn't getting more blue

Montana moved rapidly to the right in the '90s and it has shown no evidence of moving back to the left. The West has in general isn't moving to the left and may actually be moving to the right with the exception of Arizona. Montana was once a democratic leaning state but those days are long gone. Yet, it still has an active democratic party in the state so there is a possibility that democrats will win the governor's race this year. But, that is irrelevant to the partisan leanings of the state.

[elperromagico]

22. And we have to remember that a Dem in one part of the country

is not necessarily the same as a Dem elsewhere in the country. A Dem in Massachusetts may be very liberal (and damn proud of it); a Dem in Mississippi is probably going to be more on the moderate or even conservative side.

A lot of us here (myself included) complain about Tom Daschle's willingness to suck up to Bush* - but in a sense, he has to do that in order to get elected in the heavily Republican South Dakota. The same is true for a lot of Democrats (and yes, Republicans) throughout the country.

[Bombtrack]

7. I came into Kerry's nomination as thinking TN would be impossible, BUT

Polling has shown otherwise. It's polling better than many states that are going without spectulation as tossup or swingstates.

[Bombtrack]

9. I think North Carolina is a state that is possible if Edwards is the veep

even though it hasn't gone dem in any year since 76.

[BillZBubb]

10. OK, here's my take:

Arizona, GOP
Arkansas, Winnable for Dems, edge GOP
Colorado, GOP
Florida, while winnable, will go GOP.
Georgia, solid GOP
Iowa, good shot for Dems
Kentucky, solid GOP
Louisiana, Winnable for Dems, edge GOP
Michigan, Winnable for Dems
Minnesota, strangely tending GOP recently, good shot for Dems
Missouri, goes GOP
Montana, goes GOP, but not hopeless for Dems
Nevada, goes GOP, but not hopeless for Dems
New Hampshire, Winnable for Dems
New Mexico, Winnable for Dems
Ohio, A "must win" for Dems, good shot here
Oregon, Should go Dem
Pennsylvania, Should go Dem
Tennessee, goes GOP
West Virginia, good shot for Dems, but GOP strong
Wisconsin, good shot for Dems

The rest from your list all go for Kerry. By my count, Bush* will have 249 electoral votes either strongly or likely lined up. There are 106 in play with Kerry having better than even odds of taking all of those.

My take is that Ohio is the kingmaker in this election. If it goes for Kerry, odds of his also taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and West Virginia are pretty high.

[TheWraith]

12. A useful tool

Check out the Electoral College Calculator. It's a great tool for this sort of thing. (You need to have Java installed for it to work.)

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

I would suggest that you start by copying the 2000 map to get a base of 'solid' blue states (on the theory that if Gore couldn't lose them, no one can at this point). Then add NH to the blues, since I don't think they'll make the same mistake twice. That, along with the readjustment of EVs according to the 2000 census, leaves us at a score of D264-R274.

It boils down to this: we can win without Ohio, but they can't. If we win Ohio, then the Rs would need huge upsets in several 'solid blues' like NM, OR, and WA, or one big win like IL. If the Repubs win Ohio, we only need one swing state like CO, AR, or MO to take the election.

Personally, though I doubt it will be this close. I suspect we'll not only win Ohio, but several of the swing states as well.

[HawkerHurricane]

11. Here's a projection provided by a Republican...

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

[beyurslf]

31. If you notice, too, on his site

the "real close" states for Bush (less than 5%) are MUCH closer than the "real close" states for Kerry. Most of Kerry's are 3-5% while Bush has several at 1% or less. Look for some swings in those states soon.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

13. Check out this site

It allows you to play around with the states, plus it's fun!

Link: http://www.mockelection.org/electionmap/

[dusty64]

14. OK

Will Win:
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
California
Masschusetts
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island
Washington
Vermont

Can't see him losing:
Iowa
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Oregon
Wiscosin
New Mexico

Very Likely:
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida (jebbie IS starting his shit again)
New Hampshire
New Mexico

Worth contesting:
West Virginia
Tennessee
Colorado
Louisiana
Missouri
Nevada

Don't Bother:
Georgia
Montana

[dusty64]

15. I forgot Kentucky,

put it in the Don't Bother category.

[fujiyama]

27. I would add Ohio

to the "Very likely" category.

Other than that, that's my list exactly, and if he wins all the "we will wins" and the "can't see him losing" states (actually I'd go ahead and say that he simply cannot win if he loses either PA or MI, or two of MN, IA, and WI), he'll win this.

That's why I say Kerry's chances of winning this are good -- barring WMDs myseteriously surfacing or Osama's capture.

[dusty64]

29. You're right, I forgot

Ohio and I think that is the most important of all this year. I would have put it in the Very Likely category as well.

[kvnf]

16. what it comes down to

I think we need three of these four:

1. Florida
2. Pennsylvania
3. Ohio
4. Michigan

If we win three of those, something will have to go seriously wrong for us to lose...like Bush winning in Oregon and Iowa, or something. (If we win all four the election is ours, no problem).

It's possible to do it with only two of those four, but then we'd need to pick smaller battground states like Arkansas, Louisiana, etc.

Really, I think if we lose both Florida and Ohio, we're screwed.

Of those four, I'm not worried about PA or MI, but Florida and Ohio worry me. GOTV in those states!!!!! I know there are more Democrats in Ohio than Republicans...we need to get them OUT!!!

Bottom line: With serious hard work we can win this thing, but it will take every ounce of energy we have.

Go to this site:
http://www.mockelection.org/electionmap/
And use their current electoral distribution map as your base (it's pretty solid) Play around with the four states above to see how easy or hard this race will be.

[MAlibdem]

17. My feelings...

Absolutely UNwinnable
Georgia (1980, 1992)
Montana (1992)

Probably going to lose
Kentucky (1992, 1996)
West Virginia (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996)

Toss-up
Arizona (1996)
Colorado (1992)
Florida (1996)*
Louisiana (1992, 1996)
Tennessee (1992, 1996)

Probably Will Win
Arkansas (1992, 1996)
Missouri (1992, 1996)
Nevada (1992, 1996)
Ohio (1992, 1996)
New Hampshire (1992, 1996)
New Mexico (1992, 1996, 2000)
Pennsylvania (1992, 1996, 2000)

SHOULD Win
Delaware (1992, 1996, 2000)
Hawaii (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Iowa (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Maine (1992, 1996, 2000)
Maryland (1980, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Michigan (1992, 1996, 2000)
New Jersey (1992, 1996, 2000)
Oregon (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Washington (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)


"Fundraising States"/WILL Win
California (1992, 1996, 2000)
Connecticut (1992, 1996, 2000)
District of Columbia (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Illinois (1992, 1996, 2000)
Massachusetts (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
New York (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Rhode Island (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Vermont (1992, 1996, 2000)
Wisconsin (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)



So...my guess is that Kerry will pick up...

Arkansas (6 EV)
Missouri (11 EV)
Nevada (5 EV)
Ohio (20 EV)
New Hampshire (4 EV)

[elperromagico]

18. Would you include Minnesota in the "Will Win" category?

Couldn't find it on your list. Only MN and DC have gone for the Dem in every one of the last 6 elections.

[kvnf]

i would, totally

DC has actually gone D in every election since they got their 3 electoral votes in 1960...
Next is Minnesota, which was the only state to vote for Mondale and Ferraro.

Minnesota is ours. So is Wisconsin. So is Iowa. And Washington, too. I'm not worried about these states.

Oregon and New Mexico, I worry a little.

Pennsylvania I tend not to worry, same or Michigan.

Florida and Ohio freak me out.

Any thoughts on Maine?

[NewJerseyDem]

21. That's just because Mondale was from Minnesota.

And Mondale only narrowly won. If Mondale was from any other state, Reagn would have carried Minnesota.

[elperromagico]

23. This is true. But the state stuck with the Dem presidential candidates

throughout the lean Reagan-Bush years, when it seemed the Republicans had a lock on the Electoral College. And, of course, they've stuck with the party throughout the Clinton-Gore years.

[NewJerseyDem]

20. How is Wisconsin definitely going to Kerry?

Gore won by .2% in 2000. It was one of the closest states in the country. The combined Bush/Buchanan total was larger than Gore's vote. This is one of the most competitive states in the 2004 race and should be considered a tossup, IMHO.

[kvnf]

24. Nader

He pulled a considerable 3.6% in Wisconsin, or 94,000 votes. I think Nader's pull will be leser this time around, in general, and that will help Kerry to win Wisconsin.

Also, Democrats have spent a lot of time in Wisconsin during the primaries...always a good thing. I just think given their history they will go to Kerry. (i hope!)

[NewJerseyDem]

25. Still, it isn't safe

If Nader is on the ballot, he will still get some votes. No matter what it is going to be a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii!! Wisconsin is by no means a safe democratic state.

[kvnf]

26. The more I look at this

So I've spent some time playing around with possibilities at
http://www.mockelection.org/electionmap/

If we lose Florida, we will have to pick up a state we lost in 2000, right?

Switching Missouri to our side--and keeping the rest the same from 2000--would give us a 271-267 win.
I think this is why Gephardt is being strongly considered as a VP choice.

When you consider that Bush may be competitive in Gore 2000 states like Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin, etc., it also becomes important to look at Bush 2000 states we may have a shot at, like West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and maybe even Ohio. These states are going to be essential. And now that I think about it Gephardt as VP would help in places like W. Viginia and Ohio.

But again, as I said before. If we can win three either Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio, we'll win this thing.

Also, if we win the east bank of the Mississippi River, we win this thing.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

28. Yes, No, Maybe

N Arizona (1996)
N Arkansas (1992, 1996)
Y California (1992, 1996, 2000)
N Colorado (1992)
Y Connecticut (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Delaware (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y District of Columbia (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M Florida (1996)*
N Georgia (1980, 1992)
Y Hawaii (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M Illinois (1992, 1996, 2000)
M Iowa (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
N Kentucky (1992, 1996)
N Louisiana (1992, 1996)
Y Maine (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Maryland (1980, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Massachusetts (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Michigan (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Minnesota (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M Missouri (1992, 1996)
N Montana (1992)
M Nevada (1992, 1996)
M New Hampshire (1992, 1996)
Y New Jersey (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y New Mexico (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y New York (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M Ohio (1992, 1996)
Y Oregon (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Pennsylvania (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Rhode Island (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
N Tennessee (1992, 1996)
Y Vermont (1992, 1996, 2000)
Y Washington (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M West Virginia (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996)
Y Wisconsin (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)

Which means, big surprise, it comes down to the Maybes:

M Florida (1996)*
M Illinois (1992, 1996, 2000)
M Iowa (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000)
M Missouri (1992, 1996)
M Nevada (1992, 1996)
M New Hampshire (1992, 1996)
M Ohio (1992, 1996)
M West Virginia (1980, 1988, 1992, 1996)

Florida's not a good target for effort/money, since there is the threat that they will steal it again. So we have to sweep the 2 we picked up last time (Illinois, Iowa) and then pick up one more. The best bet is Ohio. Missouri might be worth looking at.

This election is about the midwest, NOT the south!!!!!

[dusty64]

30. Kick!

:kick: