Democrats may be sitting on an election surge in 2004

[Nicholas_J]

WASHINGTON(GNS) — President Bush's eroding support creates a greater likelihood that Democrats could surge back into control of both Congress and the White House in November.
Many caveats exist. The 2004 election is hostage to events in Iraq, the war on terrorism and the U.S. economy over the next several months. But Bush's falling status, Americans' collective worry about the country's direction and a sudden Democratic advantage in voter preference in congressional races are all reminiscent of the sour atmosphere Democrats began confronting in the spring of 1994. That fall, the GOP swept into control of the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years.

"We have enough (evidence) to ask the questions," political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said about a Democratic surge in 2004. "We don't have enough for the answers yet."

The contours of this election will start to clarify in the next three months, after the United States ostensibly hands over power to a provisional government in Iraq on June 30 and the Democrats and Republicans hold national conventions in late July and August, respectively.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/raasch/2004-05-23-raasch_x.htm

[joanne]

1. We can only hope!

Similar article in Los Angeles Times. :)

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-congpol23may23,1,950019.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[newyawker99]

16. Hi joanne!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[AP]

2. Backlash. You cheat to win in 2000 because you don't want to actually

change your policies to conform with trendlines. The trends continue and whip back and snap your ass out of office.

The Republicans would have been better off accepting a loss in 2000, adjusting their policies, and then holding close to a 50:50 split.

[Nicholas_J]

3. More than that

That Arch Conservative Bob Novak just did a big poll of registered republicans and did not like the results. One fifth of those he polled stated they were not comitted to voting for George Bush in November. If Bush' ratings stay at 50 percent or less through July, Republicans see this election as a lost cause.

People like Dick Lugar are breaking with Bush in order to position thmeselves for some sort of consideration if Kerry wins, as well as trying to avoid a Democratic sweep and retaking of Congress, slong with a Democratic President. Everything points to retaking the senate, even if Kerry loses, and there is a good chance of wqinning back the House.

[Erika]

4. Bush Campaigned As a Centrist

With his lies he suckered in a lot of independents to vote for him in 2000. Then he took the neocon hard right wing philosophy after his "election". Even GOP fiscal conservatives know he is bankrupting this country and will sit this election out. Better Kerry than a liar.

[Erika]

5. What Is Really Sad....

Many democrats saw the election in 2000 after Bush was "selected" as the downturn of America. They saw a puppet who could be used for four years to redistribute the income from the poor to the rich by way of war and a neocon who would force their social conservative values down the throats of Americans. The puppet handler could have cared less who died as long as a GOP business profit was made. Bush met his goals as a puppet. It will probably take us two decades to right his wrongs. The first step is to get rid of his radical neocon buddies in Congress and him.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Bush

Played conservative democrats like crazy. They wanted "EXACTLY" what Bush claimed, compassionate conservatism. They expected someone who would be fiscally responsible, but support government programs that helped those who had problems, or standard government programs like education. He made claims that filled the needs of the Reagan Democrats. Making government prorgrams responsible, but also being compassionate to those who needed it.


Which is why most polls indicate Bush losing large numbers of those Democrats who voted for him in 2000. In 2000, the crossover vote tipped in Bush's favor, with a small percent more Democrats voting for him, than Republican who voted for Clinton. Now the scales are tipped way in the other direction. Twenty percent of registered Republicans polled are indicating that they are not comitted to voting for Bush in November. Registered Republicans are polling at about 8 percent who will vote for Kerry. This is down from a high of 12 percent. But even when it was 12 percent, the crossover of Democrats who were polling for Bush was only 10 percent, giving Kerry a two percent crossover advantage. Right now, less than 3 percent of Democrats are polling for Bush, But dependin on the poll, between 6 and 8 percent of Republicans are polling for Kerry, which means that the crossover percentage differnce is much higher in Kerry's favor.

All of these factors are of concern to conservative think tanks, as when they are all put togetther, they point to a greater possibility for a Kerry win in November, than towards Bush.

[saracat]

6. And the best thing

is that that alianated one fifth is probably his evangelical base!

[Lefty Pragmatist]

7. The only alienated evangelicals

are the ones who are also debt hawks who don't like Bush's deficits.

Bush's problems with his base come from him being not right wing enough. The backlash is from the decade of irresponsible talk radio goading people into thinking that a fullscale right wing insurrection was the only way to save the country. Now, with complete control over the government, Bush still can't push through a lunatic Christian agenda, and some of his base is deeply disappointed in *him*. (Analogy is the Clintonians who turned on him when he went for welfare reform and dumped universal heatlh case.)

You stoke the radicials to get them to contribute and campaign, but if you're successful then there's no way they want to hear that they're a marginal voice and their policy will never fly with the country. This burned the left once, now it's burning the right.

[saracat]

8. Very good post!

But the WP also had an article on the Evangelicals who can't stomach the abuse issue and will stay home, so who knows?

[wyldwolf]

9. oh no! TERRIBLE news to the defeatists on DU!

Whatever will they complain about if this comes to pass?

[Cheswick2.0]

19. the fact that Kerry is not going to change much

.

[wyldwolf]

22. next time you gaze into the crystal ball, tell me this week's winning ...

...lottery numbers.

[dusty64]

10. Now is their chance,

its theirs to blow. Will they unite and present a positive agenda to the People while at the same time revealing ALL that is evil about the extreme right, or will they continue disjointed and often failing to act as an opposition?

[DaveSZ]

11. Yes

Ir's all up to the Democratic leadership; whether or not they lead that is.

[Hattori Honzo]

13. Time to strike while the iron is hot

I think if we can push his numbers down to about 37%, that may be too much for him to come back from.

[rasputin1952]

14. Welcome to DU!!!

:toast: :hi:

[scotty2004]

15. welcome

[newyawker99]

17. Hi Hattori Honzo!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Nicholas_J]

18. No incumbent

has ever won with approval ratings below 50 percent. Uf Bush cant pull it over that by July, he will not be able to win.

[Kahuna]

21. We'll need to hold his numbers way down to keep him from stealing..

the election. No way he can justify winning if he's polling at 40% or lower. But then again with him, I wouldn't put it past him.

[Arugula Latte]

23. Let's push him down

and rub dirt into that scabby, beady-eyed face of his.

[arcos]

25. welcome to DU!

I saw a few of your swords at the movie theater on Saturday. :P

[Larkspur]

20. I'll be working to get Rep Simmons, R 2-CT, booted out in November

Unlike the Dem Prez race, I like both Dem contenders -- Shaun McNally http://www.votemcnally.com/ and Jim Sullivan http://www.sullivanforcongress.com/, but have decided to toss my support with Jim Sullivan right now. He's better organized and I've had a personal 1-on-1 meeting with him. Jim is very personable and is open minded. I like Shaun's Peace Corps experience but he doesn't seem to be as well organized as Jim. Organization will be the key to beat Simmons who has almost $2 million in his war chest.

[DrFunkenstein]

24. Kerry In The White House Gives Us The Supreme Court, Too

At least one, and possibly as many as three Justices will step down in the next four years.

[GalleryGod]

26. Thanks,Nick!

Always a pleasure to read your posts and the research that went into them.
:smoke: Your Man,outta the Faculty Lounge for Summer,
G.G.:hangover:

[CTLawGuy]

27. we also have

Democracy for America, our secret weapon of fundraising and grassroots support for Democratic candidates.

[DinahMoeHum]

28. "Election Surge" . . . From their mouths to G*d's ears. . .

Keep on pushin', keep on fightin', keep on keepin' on, and it will really be a tsunami.

Eyes on the prize.


:kick::kick::kick: