Rothenberg "Movement to the Democrats is simply too strong to be ignored"

[mndemocrat_29]

The evidence is piling up: President Bush's numbers are sliding; more Americans say the country is headed "off on the wrong track"; and voters are announcing in "generic ballot tests" that they intend to vote Democratic for Congress. It's time to ponder whether we are witnessing the early stages of a Democratic wave that could overwhelm Congressional Republicans in November.

And yet there is one considerable factor that points in the Democrats' favor. In 1994, the Republicans had to put together a huge wave, since they needed to net more than three dozen House seats and seven Senate seats to gain control of Congress. This year, the Democrats need to net only a dozen House seats and one or two Senate seats to make Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) the Speaker of the House and Tom Daschle (S.D.) the Senate Majority Leader.

Even a small Democratic breeze could enhance the chances of long-shot Democratic challenges in the Northeast. Candidates such as Lois Murphy (against Rep. Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania's 6th district), Steve Brozak (against Rep. Mike Ferguson in New Jersey's 7th district) and Diane Farrell (against Rep. Christopher Shays in Connecticut's 4th district) face an almost impossible task in running against an incumbent in a district located in an expensive media market. But a Democratic wave could boost the prospects of those long shots.

"Bush is not going to be the weapon that Republicans expected he would be in places like Colorado, West Virginia and even Nebraska," argued one Democratic operative. "Weak Republican and Independent voters are much more open to our ideas. Bush provided a gateway into the Republican Party for voters in states like Georgia and North Carolina in 2002. This time we will have that gateway."

Here's the link: http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_129/rothenberg/5667-1.html

[mndemocrat_29]

1. How We Win Back the House

I think that if we can hold at least three of the Texas Five Seats (Sandlin, Stenholm, Edwards, Lampson, and Frost), we could potentially (though it would be a slim chance) take back the House and make Nancy Pelosi speaker. Obviously, it would be better to take back the House if we could take four or even five of the Texas seats, but it can be done. We would have to take, however:

Open Seats
Washington-8, New York-27, Colorado-3, and Louisiana-3, all very marginal districts that could all four swing to the Democrats, must be won in 2004. We have great candidates in Alex Alben, Brian Higgins, John Salazar, and Charlie Melancon, New York and Washington's districts will both be going strong for Kerry nationally, CO-3 will also have Ken Salazar on the ballot to boost his brother's chances, and Lousiana has been very kind to Democrats lately.

Then there are the Republican-leaning open seats where we have a fighting chance-Pennsylvania-15, which has a strong Republican candidate in State Sen. Charlie Dent, but is nearly dead even for the Gore/Bush votes. In Nebraska-1, Matt Conneally could prove that there is some life left in the Nebraska Democratic party and get elected (not too long ago, Nebraska did have several House Democrats in Congress). And then there is Washington-5: this will take an almost miracle of an upset for Dan Barbieri, but that miracle may be coming-Republicans are facing a tough primary battle in September and Barbieri continues to raise much money and publicity for this district.

Defeating Incumbents
Democrats two best chances at pickups are Georgia-12 and Arizona-1-both musts in the battle to retake the House. John Barrow and Paul Babbitt will likely be our nominees and given the marginality of these districts, we should be able to win both.

Other incumbents that are vulnerable include Jon Porter, who attracted a very high profile challenger in Tom Gallagher, Jim Gerlach, who could fall to Lois Murphy if Kerry is running well in Pennsylvania, and John Hostettler, who likely will fall to Jon Jennings this cycle.

Then there are the perennial candidates-Anne Northup, whose district will definitely be close since KY-4 will be coming out for Kerry, Rob Simmons, who will always be vulnerable, as he is in the most Democratic-leaning Republican-held district in the country, and Heather Wilson, who is running once again against Richard Romero, but Romero will be helped by having Kerry at the top of the ballot and having support from Bill Richardson.

Other than that, we have Steve Pearce and Bob Beauprez, both of whom won marginally last time, could fall after their freshman terms, and then there is the potential for (if we are winning back the House, it will be by a sweep), Clay Shaw or Chris Shays to fall to their very strong, attractive candidates: Jim Stork and Diane Farrell. Finally, there is the question mark in MN-6, where Patty Wetterling (who may arguably have higher name ID than Mark Kennedy) will be running. If we can win 18 (16 seats after Texas-redistricting, plus giving room for losing two of the Texas Five) of these seats, we'd have the majority.

[Crachet2004]

2. Yeah, or Iraq could keep getting worse (a liklihood), gas could bust three

bucks a gallon national average (a liklihood), the economy could falter and the markets lose steam (a liklihood)...etc; at which point, people will completely lose faith in Bush and the GOP, and we will enjoy an historic landslide...a tide that will sink ALL, or nearly all, the GOP boats.

That is what I see shaping up...nothing marginal about it.

[salonghorn70]

5. Texas

At least we could be a battleground for something. I wish we could make Bush have to fight for Texas.

[Larkspur]

3. I'll be working to get Rep Simmons, R 2-CT, booted out in November

He supported Bush on all major issues -- tax cuts, the Iraq War, NCLB, Medicare Bill -- in exchange for fundraising stints from Cheney and Bush.

Unlike the Prez race, I like both Dem contenders and will enthusiastically support the Primary winner, but I've decided to support Jim Sullivan right now.

[bushwakker]

4. Seems like every cycle about this time I hear this BS

I'll believe it when I see it.

[dusty64]

6. Anymore winnable

House races?

[DaveSZ]

7. I do believe

We have a great chance of taking the WH and Senate, but the House will be difficult.