Hope its not a repeat. California Field Poll Kerry 51 % Bush 39%

[Nicholas_J]

Bush's numbers fall among likely voters
By Bill Ainsworth
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
May 26, 2004

SACRAMENTO – Democrat John Kerry holds a double-digit lead over President Bush among likely California voters, according to the latest Field Poll.

The Massachusetts senator leads Bush 51 percent to 39 percent, with Ralph Nader winning support from 4 percent of those surveyed.

In a matchup without Nader, the presumptive Democratic nominee leads Bush 55 percent to 40 percent.

Nader has announced plans to seek the presidency. In California, he can either submit 153,000 signatures or win the Green Party nomination, according to the Secretary of State's press office. Nader was endorsed by the national Reform Party this month, but the party was disqualified from the California ballot this year when none of its statewide candidates received the required 2 percent of the vote in the November 2002 election.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20040526-9999-1n26field.html

Polls are starting to resemble earlier ones, where Kerry leads in the entire northeast, all of the great lakes state except Indiana,, and the entire west coast again.

[theo4487]

1. Kerry is expected to be strong in that state

Don't break out the wine bottles yet. Its just an expected poll.

[Kathleen04]

2. I agree, though it's still good to see, especially...

because there was a poll not so long ago where Bush was within 1% of Kerry. It was pretty disconcerting to say the least, but this poll is right where Kerry should be.

[Nicholas_J]

3. All of the polls prior to that one poll

Which had Kerry and Bush 1 point apart were similar to this one, with Kerry having a double digit lead over Bush. When I see an anomaly like that, I start to get the idea that Bush's PR people are trying to control public opinion in a state where BUsh is not doing so well by getting his polling data up. They arrange to have someone who supports them do a poll that gets results more in line what they would like to see. In several statesthis has occurred. like Washinton. Kerry had double digit lead in that state, and then some regional pollster does a poll showing Kerry neck and neck, and then the political pundits report that Kerry is falling back. These things tend to have an effect on the general public. Another poll in Washinton State a few days ago validated theearlier poll data showing Kerry way head of Bush.

[JI7]

4. republican backed poll

during 2000 there was an "odd" poll out which differed from the rest of the polls of california which claimed bush and gore were close in california. it turned out to be a poll paid for by the republican senate candidate. and many times they do it to try to get democrats to waste funds in a state they already have and to prevent it from going in true battleground states.

[Kathleen04]

5. True..it's hard to tell..

which ones are real anymore.

Sometimes it's tempting to just assume that dismaying polls like the close CA one are just biased/fabricated or statistically inaccurate...but I suppose that in someways it's better to treat them as if they're real and have them be false than vice-versa.

[Ridley Park 704]

6. Yippee. Man this shit is looking better all the time

Calif. will push us over the top big time in november. Arnold winning was an anomaly, I'm convinced his party affiliation wasn't the reason he won. A year ago the Democrats who helped elect him just wanted some breathing room from unpopular Gray Davis, and chose a Hollywood celebrity to replace him. It had nothing to do with his party.

This year it is different, people are coming around to Kerry.

[gulliver]

7. But ask Rove and he'll say that CA is in play. n/t