Dbdmjs1022
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:42 PM
Original message |
New IA Poll confirms Obama and Clinton in PA dead heat! 45-43 Hillary |
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Edited on Thu Apr-03-08 01:45 PM by Dbdmjs1022
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/33_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_PA_Dem_Poll_(4-3-2008).pdf So much for people thinking that the polls showing Obama ranging from 2 up to 5 down being anomalies! Obama now only trails Hillary by 3% in the new IA poll. GObama!
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rndmprsn
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:42 PM
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acrosstheuniverse
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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Hope can be a dangerous thing. Now my nerves are rattled with it more then ever.
Go Bama!
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democrattotheend
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
10. Seriously. I want these polls to stop. |
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It just ups the ante, and most of them have been wrong all season. If SurveyUSA shows it closer I will start to believe it's possible.
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sfam
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
29. Agreed. We should ban all polls not from SUSA...they are all flawed nt |
OzarkDem
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message |
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Outside the margin of error. Nice try, though.
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Dbdmjs1022
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
5. Actually it's well within the margin of error |
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The MOE is 3.7%. Nice try though.
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MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. MOE is 3.7, and shes up 2 |
HiFructosePronSyrup
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
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And a typo in the OP, it's 45% C, 43% O.
Nice try though.
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CreekDog
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:50 PM
Original message |
but what about the trend? |
book_worm
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:24 PM
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TahitiNut
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
25. You continue to embarass yourself. |
Alexander
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
37. You think OzarkDem will respond to these facts? |
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Something tells me "no". These types tend to be hit-and-run posters.
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dchill
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
30. OzarkDem - now officially... |
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Outside the margin of error.
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MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:44 PM
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4. Actually, its Hillary 45-43 |
Dbdmjs1022
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
7. You're right. I mistyped. Fixed |
MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:46 PM
Response to Original message |
9. This poll severely underrepresents Obama's African American Support |
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They have it at 55-29 right now for Obama. We all know that wong happen.
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book_worm
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
23. really? he'll get more like 80% is my guess. |
democrattotheend
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
32. Yeah, but the white vote looks off too |
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I work in the labor movement and the people I work with know PA pretty well, and they predict Obama will lose the white vote by 30 points in PA.
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MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #32 |
33. Maybe among the "working class" but among the college educated white surburban libs, he will do well |
democrattotheend
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #33 |
35. That's what I had thought |
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But after spending some time on the Main Line two weeks ago I was not so convinced. He has some support among rich white liberals in the Philly suburbs, but not as much as I had expected. But that was in the middle of the Wright controversy, so maybe it's a little better now. I will let you know after I go back this weekend.
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MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #35 |
36. But you are basing this off of two weeks ago. |
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That was when he was polling 15-25 points behind.
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grantcart
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:47 PM
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11. Look at the similarities at these two states before the election |
woolldog
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
24. I don't see any similarity. |
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HRC WI's support was not terribly strong and treaded water for a long time. HRC PA support shows a strong positive trendline.
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thereismore
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:49 PM
Response to Original message |
12. A lot of AA voters have not decided yet. This will work for Obama. nt |
MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
14. The pollsters in this poll say that his AA support is too low and that it will change. |
Upton
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:49 PM
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13. All the polls are trending Obama |
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it's all good. Clinton has to win big in Pa., she's loses, it over.
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Texas Hill Country
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:50 PM
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15. what kind of poll is that? |
MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
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Its all coming crashing down.
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Texas Hill Country
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
27. i have never heard of them at all and dont know their methodology... sounds like crap tho. |
MadBadger
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
28. Besides the fact that they have it within the MOE and that upsets you, Why does it sound like crap? |
thoughtcrime1984
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
38. I think the SUSA poll with Hil up by 12 is closest. |
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Hil by 20 wouldn't shock me. If Obama gets it down to the 8-9 range, he is golden.
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jefferson_dem
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Thu Apr-03-08 01:57 PM
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17. Obama pulling in 40% of white vote and plenty of room to grow among blacks. |
featherman
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:07 PM
Response to Original message |
18. Crazy stuff... only 56-29% AA margin for Obama |
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Undecided at 12% and margin of error gives a Keith number of 16.
While I'm glad to see this poll showing PA to be closer than the conventional thinking it does seem a bit off.
For entertainment purposes only, as they say.
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MidwestTransplant
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
19. For most of the campaign until January or so, Clinton had a big lead among black voters. |
book_worm
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:21 PM
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20. I like the title, "Clinton campaign on life support" of article. |
book_worm
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
21. He really needs to stay in PA as much as possible to close this deal |
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if she loses PA she is finished--no if, why's or buts about it. The party will then begin to demand she get out of the race if she doesn't do it herself.
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loveangelc
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:33 PM
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Milo_Bloom
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Thu Apr-03-08 02:48 PM
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31. Anything less than a 10 point Clinton win is the official end of her. |
Bullet1987
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Thu Apr-03-08 03:28 PM
Response to Original message |
34. Insider Advantage have some tough remarks... |
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“She will have to pull off a near-miracle to win Pennsylvania, to say nothing of her winning by a substantial margin, which she almost certainly needs to stay alive in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes,” said Towery.
WOW!! I can't wait for the next Rasmussen poll to come out. Zogby and SUSA too.
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