proof John Edwards can bring in crossover voters

[JI7]

kerry won the crossover republican and independent voters in iowa and new hampshire. but outside of those states where he had more competition edwards did the best with crossover voters. i will even exclude south carolina and north carolina as examples since they are seen as edwards birth and home states. i'm going to show examples in tennessee, virginia, ohio,wisconsin, and georgia. john kerry won all of these states, and other than wisconsin and georgia, his lead was pretty large.

kerry won because he did very well among democratic voters. he did the best among women and minorities and others who regularly vote democratic.

but if you look at the republican and independent voters in those states, john edwards did the best. the states with more open voting such as wisconsin and georgia were the states edwards came closest to kerry and this was in large part because of these crossover voters.

even in oklahoma which clark won,edwards still won among the independent and republican voters.

i am a kerry supporter and i think he does have what it takes to appeal to crossover voters but it takes convincing them as they just see him as the stereotype of elitist northeastern democrat put out by the media. his good showings among crossovers in iowa and new hampshire are examples of his appeal. but in those states he had time to convince them and they got to know the man through him and others who know him. but now is a national campaign and he wont have time to do the same with everyone. and edwards can help him here.

click on the link below of exit polls of voters to see the numbers for yourself. they have a pull down menu of different states. remember, edwards did not campaign in all states, the ones i mention above are ones where edwards and others campaigned. they include info on income and other things, but try to find the part which has the info on whether one is democratic,republican,or independent.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/MA/index.html

[Auntie Bush]

1. Did you forget or not realize/know that many Republicans &

corp media whores want Kerry to lose...so they vote for Edwards?
How can anyone just ignore this FACT?


Edited to add..."Yes", of course Edwards pick up many crossover votes...but I say Clark will bring more because Repuks believe Kerry is weak on defense. Does Edwards make Kerry stronger on defence?
I think not. Does Clark?.......

[Padraig18]

2. Names, please?

We keep hearing this allegation, but no one ever seems to name names of who these 'corp media whores' are. Perhaps you will be the first? Cheers!

:D

[Auntie Bush]

9. ALL the media.!!!! They ignored Clark and only made negative

comments when they brought his name up. Wouldn't give him credit when credit was due! Where have you been that you didn't notice that?

First they all pushed Dean because they thought he was easier to beat because he had no foreign policy experience when we were at war. After they maliciously destroyed him...they started to push Edwards and they will do the same thing to him if he is on the ticket. That's why I fear a Kerry/Edwards ticket. I like Edwards personally...but I don't think he can help Kerry very much. Of course they will go after Clark too...but his military expertise can counter the criticisms as so many Conservatives are military.

[Padraig18]

11. Names, please? n/t

[TheFarseer]

5. The media wants a close race to cover

nothing more, nothing less(in the primaries anyways)

[cheezus]

12. Kerry IS strong on defense

The people don't want all guns and no butter! Edwards is the populist who balances the ticket. Picking Clark (someone very strong on defense) would confirm suspicions that Kerry is weak in that area. He's not! Where he is weak (in comparison to Bush) is in the connection to the average man. This is where Edwards excels.

[Skwmom]

20. Picking Clark does not confirm suspicions that

Kerry is weak in that area. It would just demonstrate that Kerry is smart enough to put someone on the ticket who could actually step into the role of commander in chief if God forbid something happened to him (Kerry).

I know plenty of average men and I hate to tell you they don't feel connected to Edwards in the least.

[rabid_nerd]

3. you realize primary numbers mean NOTHING

in the general...?

[JI7]

4. not true that they mean "nothing"

i know one has to take other factors into account in a general election. but i would not say that primary numbers mean "nothing" especially since primary numbers decide who will be the candidate in the general election.

[Adelante]

6. I don't need proof Edwards can

I accept that Edwards can bring in crossover votes. What I was asking proof of in another thread was that Clark could not bring crossover votes. It's a little difficult because Edwards was in so many more races than Clark, and often the current polling and media reporting tend not to include Clark.

But if we look at Arizona, as another example, both Kerry and Clark did better than Edwards among independent voters.

Kerry 33%
Clark 27%
Edwards 6%

As well as moderate voters:

Kerry 40%
Clark 30%
Edwards 8%


I'm not one of those convinced Kerry needs that much help with this group given that events since the primary have changed the picture significantly.

But on this point: "the states with more open voting such as wisconsin and georgia were the states edwards came closest to kerry and this was in large part because of these crossover voters."

Both Wisconsin and Georgia primaries took place after Clark dropped out. While Edwards is likely to have still done well among independents and Republicans in those races, it is also likely if Clark had stayed in the race they would have at least split those voting segments. I think this is true for a variety of states such as Louisiana, California and New York, or maybe anywhere.

As to the open primaries, the problem for me, as I recall, was that the crossover support for Edwards was diluted in importance as those voters also stated they were satisfied with Bush, so I figured they would then vote for Bush. Again, the whole picture has changed a lot since then.

[Padraig18]

8. Link? n/t

[Adelante]

10. Link is in OP nt

[Padraig18]

18. What the heck is 'OP'? n/t

[Adelante]

19. "Original Post"

I didn't invent the term.

[AP]

13. I asked the Edwards campaign if I could volunteer in AZ months before

primary.

They said, "no thanks, we're not competing there."

VA, TN, and other states where both Clark and Edwards competed head to head, where voters had an informed choice are better measures of the the candidates' relative strengths.

[AP]

7. Most remarkably, Edwards didn't even go after those voters.

Edwards was going for the minority vote everyhwere. He didn't campaign for moderatge voters, he didn't aim his message at them, or anything.

And they still loved him.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. None of this factors in the changing situation in Iraq

During the Primaries moderates and Republicans had a greater degree of confidence that the Bush team could still pull off the occupation and transition to a "free Iraq" than they do now. Economic fears held greater relative sway then than they do currently. That, in large measure in my opinion, is why there is such real (along with the manufactured) swelling of support for John McCain joining Kerry on the Dem ticket now. It is also why Clark has resurfaced as a serious VP choice, even in the media which went out of its way to ignore his consideration until very recently. Edwards has cross over appeal primarily on Economic issues. Clark has cross over appeal primarily on National Security issues, and among those who honor military service. It is a shifting equation...

[Dinger]

15. Yeah, In The Primaries. . .

In the general election you can forget it.

[dolstein]

16. Is it Edwards' strength, or Kerry's weakness?

While I voted for Edwards, and found him to be a far more appealing candidate than Kerry, I don't think we can give Edwards all the credit for his strong performance among Republicans and independents. I think a lot of these people simply didn't like Kerry, and were inclined to vote against him, and Edwards quickly emerged as the "anybody but Kerry" candidate.

[JI7]

17. actually, Kerry did win independents in virginia

and in iowa and new hampshire he won the independents and republicans.

but i don't think the republicans that voted for edwards did it just because they didn't like kerry. i think they really did like edwards. and the north carolina poll did show kerry doing not too bad with just him against bush cheney. evenin a southern state like north carolina bush and cheney could not get over 50 percent. when edwards is added it becomes a tie. other southern states show kerry not doing too bad such as tennessee, kentucky, louisiana, arkansas. i think for someone from massachusettes he is doing pretty good.