Kerry ventures into Bush territory with ad push (Virginia)

[Cocoa]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/complete/la-052804kerry_lat,1,6909062.story?coll=la-home-headlines

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry will push his television commercials deep into Virginia next week, in a risky bid to expand the electoral battlefield onto terrain President Bush won easily four years ago.

Democrats said Kerry's move, following earlier advertising forays this month into Colorado and Louisiana, shows the Massachusetts senator can pierce Bush's aura of invincibility in parts of the South and the Mountain West.

Republicans privately conceded that Colorado, which Bush carried in 2000 after both parties largely ignored it, is now competitive. But they insisted Kerry was wasting his money by looking for any gains in the South, outside the tossup state of Florida and possibly Arkansas. In a sign of his confidence, Bush stopped advertising May 17 in Louisiana and has no plans to match Kerry in Virginia.

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[JI7]

1. do you think this means Kerry will more likely pick a southerner ?

does anyone think this points to kerry more likely picking a southerner like clark or edwards, rather than someone like gephardt or vilsack who are from the midwest ?

does anyone else agree with me that only the south is more likely to vote based on geography than the rest of the country ? this means there is more reason to get someone from the south .

[Zynx]

2. If he's thinking about Virginia, he has to pick a southerner.

Clark, Edwards, and Warner have to be considered in this regard.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

3. Who is advising him?

Screw the South. If Kerry has enough momentum to be even close in VA, he already has the election. Concentrate on winning.

The only way this would make Pragmatic sense would be if it is a plot to suck in Bush dollars and ops to VA.

[Zynx]

4. It is important that we are competitive everywhere.

Not necessarily every southern state, but at least some. Outside Florida, Virginia is the most competitive coastal southern states and we have a realistic chance if we would just try for once. It is becoming increasing Democratic with the boom of the DC suburbs and will be a true swing state in the near future. If you can get Dubya to worry about those 13, he's in trouble.

[JI7]

5. he is getting advice from southerners who know the place well

like john breaux, robert byrd, jay rockefeller. and of course mark warner is a good one to get advice from as he won in the state. and isn't mark warner originally from the northeast ? that makes it even more significant kerry is also from the northeast looking to win the south. also, even if we don't win in 2004. the fact that kerry is reaching out some way in the state could make it more of a swing state than a solid gop in 2008 and the future. i'm glad kerry isn't giving up the south to the gop.

[livinginphotographs]

6. Pick Mark Warner for VP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, a biased Virginian here.... ;)

[ed_vadem]

11. with Mark Warner on the ticket

VA would very likely become a battle ground state and the 8% Gore 2000 deficit would be erased. But it would only stay a battleground state if there is a viable grassroots campaign on the ground. Outside of NOVA this is very tough to do. Ony 3 CD's are viably Democratic in Federal elections.

Kerry has also scheduled a July 16th event in NOVA which is supposed to be a multi teired event. This ad campaign and one event without M Warner on the ticket probably wont quite do it for the dems, but it would force Bush to respond somewhat.

[JI7]

13. he might be "testing" to see

i think he will check to see if he gains anything in the polls with the ads and if they feel they have done good enough and actually have a chance they will put more resources and effort into the state and get a ground operation going.

[King of New Orleans]

7. It's an interesting target

N. Virginia was virtually even last time. Kerry would have to win it 55-45. And then improve Gore's showing in the rest of the state by about 5-6 points. Giving Bush's poor running of the govt there widespread dissatisfaction in N. Va so the 55-45 looks possible. An Edwards or Warner on the ticket just might be enough to push the ticket to a win.

[JI7]

8. mark warner

as governor, mark warner would also do a good job of being able to speak from a more local perspective and the troubles he is having and how the bush administration is not helping at all.

[DjTj]

10. I think 55-45 in NoVa is very possible...

...the crowds for Edwards and Kerry at GMU were ridiculous in February on weekday nights.

I like that Edwards strength is in Southwest VA while Kerry is strong in NoVa and the tidewater - together they could do it.

[DjTj]

9. I like the idea of Kerry ads...

...coming on TV when the staff comes home from the Bush Campaign HQ in Virginia...

...psychological warfare...

[progdonkey]

12. The two Warners

I think Virginia is definitely on the board for Kerry. Our two Warners are evidence of that: our Governor, Mark Warner, is a Democrat who deserves a lot of credit for getting this budget through against the Republicans in the VA Assembly.

Our elder Senator, John Warner (aka Sam the Eagle), is a moderate Republican who is very, very highly respected in this state. He has received high praise from Ted Kennedy and Carl Levin for his refusal to buckle to his party's pressure to end the investigations into Abu Ghraib. Of course, I'm sure John Warner will be stumping for his fellow Republican, but I'm using him as an example that Virginia can be fairly moderate (well, outside Liberty and Regent Universities). Our other senator's a whole other story....

(I'd also welcome Kerry's presence in the state because he could provide some high-profile support to my 5th district's Democratic House candidate, Al Weed, who's trying to remove Zell Miller wannabe Virgil Goode.)

If Kerry is serious about taking Virginia, I think he has a good chance of being successful. Even if he doesn't actually carry the state, he should be able to narrow Bush's margin and force him to spend time and money in this erstwhile-taken-for-granted state.