Mark My Words: Obama WILL take PA 52-48 and Here is Why.

[meow mix]

*Record number of new voters (not polled)

*18-34 year old cell phones (not polled)

*Obama has Underdog Status. (uncertainty will encourage voting)

*ABC-Gate

*Screw the Activists-Gate


Sorry HillFaNz, Game Over.

[anonymous171]

1. They don't poll new voters?

[Diamonique]

9. They can't poll newly-registered voters

They just now registered, so their names haven't made it onto the polling lists yet. So that's a large number of people who can't be polled.

[anonymous171]

13. Really? Then I think he will do better than expected.

He still won't win though.

[geek tragedy]

37. Sure they can. They can do random digit dialing

and then ask if a person is registered to vote.

[AllentownJake]

Yes

I'm sure that will be productive and inexpensive of a state with a population of 12,440,000 they are going to try to find 400,000 people? 3% of the people? They'll also do it so its proportional geographically?

:sarcasm:

They are not polling these people and the pollsters admit to that. They cannot predict the likely voters from the registration drive. So they go with likely voters that are already registered.

All the polls are bullshit. No one knows what's going to happen. If Clinton was feeling comfortable I wouldn't have gotten 3 robo calls in the past 24 hours.

[BzaDem]

47. Um, they poll newly registered voters all the time.

They simply ask random people if they are registered. They even have polls without a registered-voter screen, where they don't even ask.

[AZ Criminal JD]

101. That is not how they poll.

They poll based on telephone numbers (including cell numbers). They don't use poll lists. Nice try though.

[Tarheel_Dem]

105. I get all kinds of surveys on my land line....

I have never been polled on my cell. And even if I did, I wouldn't participate, because I have to pay for my minutes. If the polling outfit were willing to reimburse me, I might reconsider, but who the hell would take part in a 15 or 20 minute poll on their own dime?

[AZ Criminal JD]

118. Thye do get better response rates on land lines but they can call cells too.

Most people with cells have all day free minutes plans so they don't mind as much.

[backscatter712]

12. They poll "likely Democratic voters"

And those voters are those who have voted Democratic in previous elections.

[dchill]

14. They work from lists of registered voters...

and there aren't any new lists - post-2006 - available. That and the fact that cell-phone polls are expensive and time-consuming and therefore rare, gives me some hope.

Over 400,000 new registrations in PA - could be very good for Obama.

[Capn Sunshine]

42. They also only call land lines.

not many 18-34s have a land line.

[Cha]

51. How's our guy doin', Capn?

Any sense or is it still a crap shoot? B-)

[AZ Criminal JD]

102. That is a myth. They call cells.

[Orangepeel]

70. No they don't. They dial randomly.

Younger voters only having cell phones is an issue, which is likely to underestimate Obama voters.

But pollsters don't work from lists, so the "new voters" isn't. Campaigns work from lists for GOTV efforts, but pollsters don't.

[demwing]

100. I dont know about ALL pollsters, but I've BEEN on the phones

And we worked 95% from lists, only using random dialers when the lists ran dry and we still needed X amount of contacts.

[Orangepeel]

110. well, that wasn't a very good pollster

Depending on the research question, marketing researchers use lists. If the company is measuring, say, satisfaction with a brand, it makes sense to randomly select respondents from a list of people who purchased the brand. Political campaigns identifying supporters for GOTV efforts use lists.

But if one wants a representative sample, which is necessary to measure public opinion, one needs a random sample of the population, exactly for the reason identified in this thread. That's why random digit dialers were invented. The computer can randomly dial within a particular area code and exchange (which is why cell phones don't get called) and then switch to a person if the phone number is live.

Maybe you were working from a list of randomly generated numbers that had been cleaned to remove known business numbers and nonworking numbers. That's the way it was done before computer assisted telephone interviewing became common.

[IDemo]

117. Not legally they don't

The federal Telephone Consumer Protection Act bans any sort of unsolicited call to a cell phone using automated dialing devices.

But the numbers seem to show that the "cell phone only" problem causes little change in poll results, and that "weighting by age" for the 18 to 34 age group can mostly correct for any skewed results.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phones_and_political_surv.php

Automatic telephone dialing systems, according to the TCPA, cannot be used to contact a cell phone

[Orangepeel]

120. Calls to landlines for non commercial purposes are exempt from the Telephone Consumer Protection Act

If you reread my post, you will see that I am specifically NOT talking about cell phones.

[InfiniteNether]

84. No. Just like he said, cell phone users don't get polled. But don't get excited and

misunderestimate Hillary's support.

[Austinitis]

2. You know what we call a candidate who relies on young voters turning out?

A loser.

[yourguide]

3. Thats not what they called him in Iowa and 29 other states...

[BzaDem]

53. Those were primaries.

McGovern won the party's primary, based in part on the young vote. He then lost the GE by 49 states.

Oops.

[yourguide]

61. Not sure how you can correlate an event 26 years ago

with an election in 2008 considering how much the youth vote has increased since then, but you keep living in 1972 ok?

[IsItJustMe]

87. Tell it like it is.

[AZ Criminal JD]

103. The youth vote has not increased. Another myth.

[Tarheel_Dem]

107. link? nt

[goclark]

126. Right! This is the 21st Century and that's why I love Obama

His campaign is reflecting his young age (for a Presidential Contender) and his leadership ability.

He is also a TEACHER.

He is inspiring all of us, including HC, to get out of the 20th Century and get with it!

The young voters can't even get their minds around things like -- "the demographic says that people that like to hunt....."

This generation can make music,text messaging and the internet move so fast it's lightening.

Obama knows and understands all of the above.

[whatchamacallit]

4. What do you call a candidate who relies on old fools?

:eyes: :puke:

[BzaDem]

54. A smart candidate, who relies on the most reliable bloc of voters.

[whatchamacallit]

64. So you were a totally unreliable fuckup when you were young?

I'm not understanding this youth hate.

[emilyg]

57. If you live right

you'll be an old fool one day.

[whatchamacallit]

65. Ha, I'm already there

;-)

[quakerboy]

76. McCain?

[emilyg]

80. Good one.

[dchill]

"Not this time."

This time we call him Mr. President.

[TahitiNut]

11. "we"??

Got crabs? :eyes:

[sellitman]

17. Perhaps you have been locked in a closet of late ?

The youth has been out in record numbers for Obama this primary. Where have you been?

[stillcool]

26. Not This Time...

not only is it the 18-29 year olds, it's the people who never participated before. I don't believe Obama will win PA. I'm sticking to the Hillary 20+ predictions. I'll just watch what happens.

[SoFlaJet]

46. Oh thank you Mr Limbaugh

we didn't know that

[bluestateguy]

63. That is an elitist attitude

Young voters put him over the top in Iowa, and it takes a lot more time and effort to vote in a caucus than a primary.

[Bake]

119. Yeah, no shit. Guess who had the time to caucus?

The ones who could cut class, or didn't have to go to WORK. Working adults, especially the Dem base of working class folks, can't just skip work.

Bake

[mythyc]

75. “A [wo]man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” (Oscar Wilde)

don't be one of the

“A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past, (s)he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.” Sidney Harris

[Blondiegrrl]

96. ... except the "loser" is winning.

Young people ARE turning out in record numbers to vote for Obama.

You fail. Try again.

[JVS]

113. A democrat.

[JoFerret]

138. That's how it has been

I do think Obama is turning out new voters. Makes Hillary's win even more impressive.

[EFerrari]

5. I'm not counting any chickens yet -- PA's elections systems are a mess

and HRC has insiders on her side, for one thing. Where people can cheat, they will be tempted to cheat.

I don't think we'll know until election night, if then. (But, I can hope!)

[crankychatter]

39. right on expat... Greg Palast is lurking in PA

close election - E-tabulation - shady territory

[EFerrari]

43. What a nose for a story he has. We've several DUers on the ground

who do election protection. DU will get good info as the voting progresses. Check the Election Reform forum for updates when the votin starts!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[PBS Poll-435]

6. You are right!

He WILL win 52-48 of the 18-34 year old vote.

And lose the state at least 60.5-39

[dchill]

16. OK, you have a right to your opinion, but be honest...

that margin is a pipe dream. Single digits, one way or another, is a much more realistic result - don't you think?

[PBS Poll-435]

22. No..

It is going to be huge.

[cliffordu]

24. RIGHT!! IT"LL BE HUGH!!11!11! I'M SERIAL!!11!11!!!!

:rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

27. I can spell huge...

Tuesday is going to be awesome.

[cliffordu]

35. Aw, come on, I was just teasing with some of that 'lolcats'

spelling and punctuation.

google lolcats...very popular around here....

[PBS Poll-435]

36. ???

Just kidding...I didn't detect the playfulness.

[cliffordu]

48. Wrong smilie, maybe??

How's this?

:hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

52. Fine

}(

[dchill]

25. 'K

[stillcool]

29. I'm sticking with the predictions of 20+

for Hillary. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[dchill]

30. Why not get in on the action?

here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5567505&mesg_id=5567505

:eyes:

[PBS Poll-435]

33. Thanks for the link

[Zachstar]

7. I hope you are right. It would be GREAT!

[Tatiana]

8. Rendell's machine is powerful. I don't think so.

But I hope to God I am wrong and you are right.

[thoughtcrime1984]

67. Just think of the machine Obama will get in the GE, with Rendell and Casey!

I think PA will stay blue for sure!

[Political Heretic]

10. I don't think so. But hope you're right. I'm hoping for under a 10 point spread.

[Quixote1818]

15. I will be very happy if it's under 10 %. nt

[Bensthename]

18. I call an Obama win 90% to 10%

Because he is the better candidate by that much..

[mckara]

19. If You're Correct, I'll Give You a Bowl of Milk...

To Wash Down that Meow Mix! :beer:

[Freida5]

20. Not even close. Clinton will win by at least 15%

[MercutioATC]

66. Clinton by 9 is my estimate.

I'll bet I'm closer...

[ORDem]

68. More power to her. It won't matter if the spread is that small. He's only

211 pledged delegates away from having the majority of them. Even if he loses PA by 15%, he'll only be about 120 or so PDs away from that majority. It's over at that point and the SDs start climbing aboard as fast as they can. Do the math, there are so few primaries left, he'll hit the mark in May. Bye bye USS HRC.

:dem:

[cliffordu]

21. K&R!!!!!!

I been thinking this for DAYS.....


:kick:

[BlooInBloo]

23. Words marked. I think he'll lose by 10-sh, but would love it if you were right.

[Cha]

28. Good because I just came on

and see this propaganda thread that says "Obama has to win PA and prove he's a winner not a whiner."

I don't need shit like that so I ignored the sucker.

[stillcool]

31. deja vu

moving the goal posts.

[HereSince1628]

32. Ok, I've bookmarked this.

And we'll just have to wait to see if you are being TOO conservative. :headbang:

[Orsino]

34. I wish.

I'm tired of trying to read the tea leaves, though.

[crankychatter]

38. agree and disagree - you forgot ONE thing

MOMENTUM

People KNOW the drawn out affair is hurting the Party... and they ALSO KNOW that Clinton cannot win fairly... Obama may be the underdog in PA but they know he's WAY ahead otherwise and they will go with the WINNER...

I don't think too many people care about the activist thing

I think the debate debacle is being spun as a fry job on both candidates... certainly in the media... and to an extent that's true... so they're feeling cheated but it's not so much of a swayer, in one direction

But you're dead on on three counts... underdog vs incumbent perception... Polling skewed eliminating new voters AND young people with cell phones...(very big deal)

plus... MOMENTUM

[meow mix]

49. yes ty, as proven by being 20 points behind weeks ago.. he has the momentum

forgot that oooooops!
:toast:

[SoCalDem]

40. Rendell & his henchmen are running the show.. I wouldn't be too sure about that..

:scared:

remember the ZERO votes for Obama in HARLEM??

the "New Hampshire Flips" from hand count to machine counts?

after '00, I'll never trust the counting of votes..anywhere..

[dbonds]

41. Keep expectations low.

If you make high end predictions then he will be expected to meet that goal. If he doesn't then the clinton supporters will say he failed. They use any excuse to say that.

[ginnyinWI]

44. kicking this positive post! I've just about had it with

the worry-warts at DU today. I suspect that a few of them are concern trolls, of course. The latest meme seems to be that the big bad republicans are going to scare all the stupid people away from Obama.

NOT THIS TIME! right?

[BzaDem]

58. "Not this time" is code for

I have nothing else to say, so I'll pretend history doesn't exist.

[meow mix]

89. lots of desperate straw-grasping.

they need to realize theres not enough of the campaign left for her to do anything.
its too far done =)

[newmajority]

45. If the "official" results are 52-48 for Obama

Then the real results (before Rendell fucked with it) would probably be an Obama landslide.

As I've said before, I just hope the massive turnout is enough to offset Rendell's planned theft. I got the feeling this week that the ridiculous amount of media spin on "Bittergate", in nearly "Dean Scream" proportions, was being engineered as an excuse for a big Hillary "win", if Rendell got the results he wanted.

[BzaDem]

50. Nope.

Newly registered voters? Same in Ohio (and everywhere else).
18-34 year old cell phones? Same in Ohio (and everywhere else).
Obama has Underdog status? And he didn't in Ohio?
ABC-Gate? From the lastest 2 nights of polling, this is helping Hillary, not Obama.
Screw the Activists-Gate? I doubt someone who would be offended by that would have voted Hillary in the first place.

Sorry meow mix, game over.

[EFerrari]

55. My mom and some of her friends were using MoveOn's resources

to organize for Clinton locally.

I'm afraid to even ask her if she knows about this latest. :(

[crankychatter]

56. I take it back...I was wrong... I think the Debate WILL help Obama and here's why

A lot of Democrats remember the smear tactics of 2000 and 2004

They saw that Debate and had a VISCERAL reaction

Clinton should NOT have associated herself with the attackers... mentioning Farrakhan and Hamas

She over-estimates the virtue and utility of these tactics

While insulting the intelligence of voters in PA

yup... wow, I've never been wrong before... it feels so weird

[Maven]

59. OK. Bookmarked

:)

[rocktivity]

60. Since Iowa, I've been taking all the polls with a pillar of salt

(link). But what you're saying makes sense to me, and here's why:

Hillary Clinton accepted an invitation Friday to debate Barack Obama in Indiana ahead of the state’s May 6 primary, at an event sponsored by the Indiana Debate Commission, CNN and PBS...A senior Clinton aide said the New York senator would appear at the debate on April 24, two days after the Pennsylvania primary. The commission offered April 24 as one possible date for the event, but noted in the invitations sent to Clinton and Obama that “we can work with you on the dates.” (link)

The IN primary is May 6, and Hillary wants to debate as soon TWO DAYS after PA? Why? Is she so broke that debates are now her only affordable form of national advertising? Or could it be because Hillary's internal polling indicates that PA is either a dead heat or definite win for Obama? If that's the case, an April 24 debate would be the perfect weapon of mass diversion.

:think:
rocknation

[bluestateguy]

62. I'll be satisfied if Obama LOSES 52%-48%

nt

[DemsUnited]

69. heh. me too.

[my3boyz]

73. Anything under 10 pt loss and I would be dancing in the streets. lol nt

[slinkerwink]

71. Don't be silly. Polls do take cell phones into account now in PA.

Obama's going to lose by 12 points.

[my3boyz]

72. I love Obama but that is not...gonna...happen! nt

[spinbaby]

74. I hope you're right

We're certainly working our tails off here.

[dailykoff]

77. Oh I agree he'll win votes cast, but votes counted is another thing.

Frankly I think he's taken several states that Hillary supposedly "won," including NH and Ohio, in votes cast, but then, so did Kerry in November '04.

:shrug:

[PM7nj]

78. They don't call him Fast Eddie for nothing. mt

[dailykoff]

88. Clinton and cheat go together like bourbon and beer

so to speak.

[CADEMOCRAT7]

79. I wish

It would free us all so we can heal the party before the convention. Also, it would save Hillary's future political career.

[Mooney]

81. God bless you, but it ain't gonna happen.

Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania.

And she may get 10 delegates out of the deal.

It's still over.

[PragmatismRules]

82. In your dreams maybe (O is toast)

[cliffordu]

95. Fuck that didn't take long.....lol

[grantcart]

83. good points and two more

1) The debate really energized Obama's base - pissed them off big time.

2) There is a group that has never been polled - those on the fence and even Clinton supporters who simply want it to be over, and think that continuation helps McCain. Nearly 70% of all Democrats think that he is going to be the nominee. There has to be some number of fence sitters who will either stay home or vote Obama because they want it over.

[JoFerret]

133. His base is?

?

[IsItJustMe]

85. He has a chance at it. Thats for sure.

[ClericJohnPreston]

86. Obamites never met a fantasy

they couldn't embrace.

I'm from Pennsylvania, born and raised. NEVER going to happen.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

90. Okay Meow Mix, I'm holding you to it. You better not dissappoint.

[Emillereid]

91. Then will it be over? I think the longer this in-fighting goes on the more likely it is we will be

slaughtered in November. Please God, let Obama win so we can consolidate around a true statesman.

[meow mix]

92. the dems are stronger than ever, and now they are bloody and pissed.

i almost feel sorry for mccain.

[ClericJohnPreston]

93. I feel sorry for the Democratic Party

Because of the naivete of fools. Its bad enough you are collectively swinging us to the middle and right, away from the core LEFT-WING, but your hubris is your downfall.

While you Obamites are so busy calling HRC every name in the book, which is bad enough, you are overly confident and lulling yourself into delusional thinking that the Rethugs are gonna roll over.

If we lose in November, I hope it is the death knell for Conservatism in the Democratic Party, the end of "bi-partsianship", and a return to LEFT,LEFT,LEFT, and bile spewing hatred of Republicans.

[meow mix]

94. uh.. oh nevermind..

if you think hillary is left of obama, im not even gonna bother trying lol

[ClericJohnPreston]

99. READ MY SIG LINE GENIUS

However, if it were between HRC and Obama, there is no contest in my mind. I don't accept empty rhetoric and speeches full of nothing. That might work on political neophytes, not on this guy.

But, thanks again for proving the most endearing aspect of Obamatons, they have to literally bring Hillary up EVERY single time in defense of their indefensible support for an empty suit.

We're doomed......

[dano81818]

97. my call is hillary by eight points.

too much institutional support for her in PA for BO to overcome... but it still won't be enough for her, so the campaign will continue, and we will waste valuable time that would be better spent attacking mccain.

[Blondiegrrl]

98. I like your optimism, but I believe Hillary will win PA. Not by a big enough margin

to a difference for her, though. She's just wasting time and money.

[dchill]

104. One minor quibble...

I believe that Screw-em-Gate and Activists-Gate are two separate issues! One is party regulars and the other is party activists. Soon, we'll ALL be screwed. ;)

[Eric J in MN]

106. Screw-em-Gate was about voters who put Newt Gingrich into power.

I don't count them as Democratic party regulars.

[davidpdx]

108. I think realistically Clinton will win the state

but not by much maybe 5-8%. Then the meltdown on DU will begin. Remember we are all dead to them.

[donheld]

109. Skinner's gonna make you stand in the corner

if you're wrong :D

[Carrieyazel]

111. He isn't winning PA. New voters and cell phones won't be enough in that state.

He'll make it competitive, but not close to win.

[Carrieyazel]

114. If Hillary wins by at least 53-47, it'll be touted as a "tremendous victory"

and "I'm in it all the way!"

[meow mix]

115. "Young Pennsylvania voters take a shine to Obama "

PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is attracting record numbers of young voters -- but will a demographic known for low turnout vote in enough numbers to defeat Hillary Clinton in the graying state of Pennsylvania?

Attracted by opposition to the Iraq war, antipathy to President George W. Bush or Clinton -- and Obama's aura of "hope" -- Pennsylvanians in the 18-29 age bracket are rallying, registering and switching parties like never before.

At the University of Pittsburgh, a "power rally" by Pitt Students for Obama got 2,000 students to register as Democrats in order to vote for the senator. The state does not allow independents to vote in primary contests.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080420/pl_nm/usa_politics_pennsylvania_youth_dc

[Buzz Clik]

112. Even if Hillary wins 52-48, it's game over.

[ecdab]

116. I hope you're right - my crystal ball is in the shop right now and there

are any number of mispreceptions working against Obama in PA and PA is quite the old school machine kind of state - which favors an old school machine kind of candidate like Hillary. We shall see, I'll believe Obama will taken PA when the votes have been cast and counted, but not before.

[meow mix]

121. i would like to add Momentum and Fund Raising Numbers to the list..

ty

[Maven]

122. WOOPS!

[bridgit]

123. When the musics over...turn out the lights, turn out the lights, turn out the liiiiiights...

[Baclava]

124. Ride the snake

....to the lake

[Eurobabe]

125. USA is Motel 6, we'll leave the light on for you.

:rofl:

See ya Hilly!

[Seeker30]

127. I light another cigarette...learn to forget

learn to forget

[NashVegas]

130. Let Me ... Kick

[Chalco]

128. Loser! nt

[AZ Criminal JD]

129. Your words were marked as you wished.

[kwenu]

131. Enjoy the glee while it lasts Bama.

[AZ Criminal JD]

135. No glee, just helping an Obama supporter out as they wished.

[GoldieAZ49]

132. Sorry BarryHO fan, you are as accurate as Bill Kristol

18-29 yr old were only 12% of the vote in PA

[GetTheRightVote]

134. Hope you are right, thank you for the information

[donheld]

136. What happened?

[Yossariant]

137. Uh Oh.