New Poll... Race Tightens Again In The Keystone State

[aaaaaa5a]

Zogby now has Clinton leading Obama just 46-43 in Pennsylvania. This stops Obama's slight slide in Zogby's polling since the debate Wednesday night. Infact if you use "just Saturdays" polling, Obama actually led 46-44.

Here's the link:

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_Zogby_Pa_race/2008/04/19/89395.html


I know Zogby has not been the most accurate pollster this primary season. But the point is a big 15-20 point victory for Clinton seems less and less likely.

Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling (PPP) and perhaps most importantly Survey USA should have polls out Monday. Maybe they will have better news for Clinton. (Survey USA traditionally polls her very favorably)

I think most observers agree, Clinton must win by at least 10 points (and in my view 15) to remain viable. The evidence so far indicates a win by that margin is becoming increasingly difficult.

[dkf]

1. Sat polling had him up 46-44? Nice.

[crankychatter]

17. I have reason to believe Obama may win

25% of the Democrats in PA did not vote in 04 and are not polled.

over a million people.

Also, cell phone only people are not polled... that includes a lot of young folks but I'm an old guy and it includes me.

yeah... don't get your hopes too high but be ready for a surprise

[Hieronymus]

44. Good point about the cell phone users .... there's hope.

[gateley]

2. Is anyone still predicting

a 15-20 point victory for Clinton? I think even her campaign has scaled back on that projection.

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. Rendell's been backing away from that prediction on the Sunday shows....

They are definitely trying to lower expectations so they can once again move the goalposts. I wish I had that great graphic of the kids moving the goalposts (LMAO). I still think she'll win it, but it won't be the blowout she needs. IMHO.

[MindMatter]

34. But what's the point of moving the goalposts out of the stadium?

See Slate's delegate counter at http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

If we assume a 10-point victory for Clinton in PA and a 10-point victory for Obama in NC, and an even split everywhere else, Obama ends up with 1698 pledged delegates to her 1539. That means he needs only 327 superdelegates. He already has 230, so he would need fewer than 100 out of the remaining batch of 310 undeclared superdelegates. In fact, he'll get least 200 of them if the primaries complete with something like that 1698 vs 1539 delegate spread favoring Obama.

A 10-point win for Clinton in PA isn't nearly enough.

The only way Clinton could have pulled this off was to get the FL and MI delegates, but with the recent polling showing Obama would kick her ass solidly in Michigan, there is no way the results from the sham primary will count.

Basically it has been over since Obama won Texas.

[Tarheel_Dem]

41. I agree with you, the math doesn't favor her. Unless her goal is to

make Obama unelectable, I have no idea why she continues? :shrug:

[goclark]

50. I don't get it either

When is her term up for Senator in New York?

If her negatives stay this way and she doesn't beat Obama, would she risj her Senate sear.

For sure her reputation would be down the tank.

[Tarheel_Dem]

65. I think she just won reelection in '06, with no effort, so 2012....I think?

I also think if she doesn't win the nomination, she'll become Joe Liebermann in heels as far as the party's concerned, and being of a vindictive nature, I wouldn't be surprised if she switched parties.

[goclark]

71. Couldn't she run as McCain's running mate this year?

[MindMatter]

72. I never quite understood why NY elected her

But I guess the average person didn't have much to say about that. The party apparatus cleared the way for her.

It makes an interesting question. Let's take a hypothetical of Obama winning the election this fall and having a popular 4 years. Would she challenge him again in 2012? If she waited until 2016, she would be 70 years old if she took office. That ain't happening.

Does she strike you as a Strom Thurmond type that will hang around the Senate forever? Not me. The Senate gig was just a stepping stone for her greater ambition.

So based on that, I'd say she will not go for another Senate term in 2012.

[gateley]

39. Did you see Nance's piece

on the invoice for moving the goalposts?

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. No. I'll have to track it down. I love Nance's rants.

:hi:

[gateley]

46. Don't forget -- it's brilliant (natch). nt

[slinkerwink]

61. I do think she'll win by 12 points because of undecideds

[Tarheel_Dem]

66. yes, undecideds have historically broken her way. we'll just have to see.

12 points? I'm not feeling that, 5-10....maybe.

[stillcool]

21. I am...20+

it's "Hillary Country" and that's what she is supposed to deliver. I'll wait and see what the Pennsylvania voters have to say, but Hillary has been touting her chances of coming close, and I'd like to see her do what she says she can.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Obama up 46 to 44 in today's polling.

Pollster John Zogby: “Okay, so let’s play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton’s 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided.

:woohoo:

[BeyondGeography]

12. I felt better this afternoon when I saw that "slow roll through Parkersburg" video

you just can't fake a vibe like that.

[yellowcanine]

32. And Parkersburg should be Hillary country. Lots of old white people. I have been there.

[Cha]

31. The Obama Train for Change

can't hurt..

[Taxmyth]

4. ROFLMAO

Yah, I trust everything I read at Newsmax. How about the Free Republic poll, how's that one looking?

[jefferson_dem]

10. Poll is partly sponsored by Nutmax. These same results will be posted on zogby's webiste shortly...

for whatever that's worth.

Ya. Zogby must be desperate for a friend.

[PM7nj]

5. Zogby makes me sick.

Why does he even do polls for Newsmax, doesn't that negate any credibility he has left?

[Bonobo]

6. Hey! What happened to "aaaaaa4a"!?

[chknltl]

8. My fears turn away from the voters...

...and turn to e-voting machines. I do not know how many are in use there, but I do not put it past the crooks to corrupt the will of the good citizens of Pennsylvania in every way that they can.
Good luck to all voters in the Keystone State. The eyes of the world are indeed upon you.

[malik flavors]

9. All i'm hoping for is single digits. *fingers crossed*

[jenmito]

16. Don't sell him short. Obama could win by MORE than single digits.

(I know what you meant.):P

[ORDem]

40. This is about where he was just before WI. nt

:dem:

[meow mix]

11. K&R obama will win 52-48

[BattyDem]

13. Get outta the way! Goalposts ... coming through!

[meow mix]

15. lol, there goes the posts on teh move..

:rofl:

[dkf]

14. Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, up 7 points over yesterday

Either they have figured out that Hillary is a Neocon, or they were offended by her throwing Move-On under the bus.

[writes3000]

18. Wow, that's a big shift. n/t

[crankychatter]

19. wow - that's an amazing figure, really

serious business

[peoli]

20. Zogby for me = Fail in New Hampshire and California.

I cant trust his polls. I want to, I cant.

[DerekJ]

23. I second that. I want to. But I can't.

[PM7nj]

25. I don't blame him so much for NH

because everyone was wrong there. He screwed up big time in California though. I guess we will have to wait until Tuesday to see if he is full of shit again. I hate to say it but he probably is.

[SoCalDem]

30. A THIRD of California voted early and by absentee BEFORE

they even knew who Obama was... The polling Zogby did just prior to the election was probably correct, but he had no way to factor in those pesky absentees & earlies..

I'm guessing that many people would have loved to get them back..but it was too late..

[JBoy]

22. And none of these polls are pinging college age kids who only have cells phones

They're breaking 4 to 1 for Obama.

[PM7nj]

26. How do we know this?

People brought this up before Ohio too.

[NJSecularist]

29. It's one of the biggest myths around.

And it's just wishful thinking by some Obama supporters.

[NJSecularist]

28. Yes they are. It is all included in the polling. n/t

[JBoy]

Not according to some polling dudes on CNN today, and this NYT story:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/us/07polling.html

Since the 1970s, pollsters have relied on sampling techniques that depend on talking with people on their home land line telephones. For the most part, the polls sample the public by randomly dialing telephone numbers in every region from a list of area codes and exchanges known to be residences. The sample is weighted to the results of the latest census.

But cellphones are not geographically based, forcing pollsters to adjust their methods. In addition, a land line often represents a household and a cellphone often represents an individual.

Pollsters say they are also concerned about low response rates among people reached on cellphones. Because wireless carriers charge customers by the minute, people may be less likely to agree to complete lengthy cellphone surveys. The survey industry is exploring reimbursing respondents for minutes used.

Researchers using computers to dial may encounter legal complications. The Federal Communications Commission requires an interviewer to dial the number when calling a cellphone. No autodialers are allowed.

[ima_sinnic]

69. my 92-year-old father has only a cell phone and is a big Obama fan

-- and someone above posted that he is an older person with only a cell phone -- so, really, it's hard to say what the make-up is of "cell phone only" -- though I agree, there's gotta be a lot of college students in it.

[grantcart]

24. MSNBC is saying that the Clinton campaign is saying they are 3-4 points ahead

[crankychatter]

36. omg.... the SPIN is three/four points ahead?

they must be losing

[grantcart]

38. well that's the problem rather than lowering expectations it made them sound desperate

[earthlover]

47. I think that means they think they are further ahead than that....they want to lower expectations

If they won by 8-10% and everyone expected them to win by 8-10%, that would not look as good as if they won by 8-10% and everyone expected them to win by 3-4%.

I think it is safe to say that the outcome is somewhere Obama winning by 10% and Hillary winning by 15%. I expect a close vote, but I would not be surprised by a 15% Hillary victory, nor much by a 10% Obama upset.

[slinkerwink]

62. exactly. Hillary will win by 12 points

[thewiseguy]

63. Obama camp expects anything between 6 and 12.

I heard that on Faux. Their Obama reported had those numbers. So if they were to play down expectations Obama is down by less than 6? lol

The reporter said the goal was 6 and as far away from 12.

[MindMatter]

37. Trying to reset expectations

If she gets a 10-point win, she want to try to spin that as a big deal, when in fact it would be a disaster.

[quantass]

43. That's exactly what i was thinking

I think it is just a trick so when she wins by 10+ she can spin that as a huge win and the press will go nutz

[Pirate Smile]

27. This is why this shouldn't have been a big deal last night and shouldn't be a big deal

tonight - although I like tonight's numbers a lot more.

[Kittycat]

33. Rasmussen also has Obama within 3pts in PA (44-47 I think).

[Danger Mouse]

35. i can't get over your name (still)...but...thanks for sharing the info.

:hi:

[Political Heretic]

45. I strongly encourage you to look at Real Clear Politics AVERAGED poll data for the most accuracy:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

They are very good about adding recent polls when they come out, usually no more than 24 hours after.

[aaaaaa5a]

48. I look at Real Clear Politics daily....

I broke down some polling numbers based on their site.

Here's the thread for it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5584503

[thewiseguy]

49. Thank you Thank you Thank you

Hillary folks, If you pay too much attention to the Gallup poll then you are fooling yourself.

[Butch350]

51. Don't forget 3% error

[thewiseguy]

52. His number tonight was 46 and last night it was 40

[Robbins]

53. Obama

Remember all the clinton people using this poll to among others saying Obama was falling? They will
Ignore It now.We could also start to see backlash from MoveOnGate as well as more people seeing
Obama campagining.I ams till skeptical of Obama actully winning PA but the goal post should be for It to be In Single digets.

[thewiseguy]

54. The undecided catholics will be the key for Obama

Somehow someway he has to get their support. Maybe a prominent catholic member endorsing Obama?

Zogby says the undecided catholics are not breaking for Hillary and they will not vote for Obama. Obama has to take advantage of that.

[writes3000]

55. How can he take advantage of that if...

They won't vote for him?

Am I missing something?

[thewiseguy]

56. I said it wrong. Here is what Zogby says:

But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama. They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election.

-----------------

Zogby says if this particular group does not vote then Obama can make it very close or even win Pennsylvania. If they do go ahead and vote, they will probably be voting for Hillary and that would make her margin of victory somewhere around 10 points.

Zogby says after the debate it looked like some of these fellows were breaking for Hillary but tonight it is a different story.

[writes3000]

57. Oh. Maybe they're pro-life voters?

Although their Dem affliation seems odd.

[thewiseguy]

59. That is a good guess

[thewiseguy]

58. Hillary's Moveon comments may have hurt her in Pennsylvania

Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, up 7 points over yesterday. Clinton leads by a small margin among mainline liberals, and by larger margins among moderates and conservative Democratic primary voters.

Also from Zogby

[johnnydrama]

60. these surveys

Just let the newsmax thing chill a bit, i doubt that Newsmax was even involved in the polling. Zogby is a full time poster, he wouldn't need newsmax for anything.

What he would want is to get it publicized on a site that a lot of people go to.

Why that would be newsmax, instead of a progressive site, i have no idea.

[Timberside]

64. Sample is small too...

only 600 "registered voters", as opposed to "likely voters" the other main pollsters use in a 1200 average sample size.

[book_worm]

68. this is a rolling average of 600 people per day.

[Adelante]

73. State polls are most often small samples nt

[davidpdx]

67. I agree with you that 10 points or more is a must

I'm sticking with my prediction of 5-8%, which is 3 points, plus 2-5% of last minute decider's.

[cooolandrew]

70. Zogby used to have a segment on Jeff Farias, they seem to have a lot of info to hand so I like their

polling. No polling can be full proof but their overall record is good.