CLINTON INTERNAL POLL LEAKED: 11 Points in Pennsylvania

[slinkerwink]

It's in a red headline on Drudge's page, and doesn't say whether it's Clinton's or Obama's internal campaign polls.

EDIT : CLINTON INTERNAL POLLS SHOW 11 POINT LEAD IN PA

JOSH MARSHALL AT TPM WONDERS:

Drudge?

There's a very odd splash headline that Drudge is running claiming that Sen. Clinton's internals show her with an 11 point lead in the state. Now, Sen. Clinton's campaign has taken some heat during the campaign for opening lines of communications with Drudge and even giving him some exclusives. And the way Drudge writes the updates suggests he's gotten the numbers from them, even including some trash-talking quotes from Clinton "insiders".

But this strikes me as suspicious for two reasons, the first of which isn't particularly determinative. First, this margin is high for the range of the polls out today. But it's not that far off. So it's certainly possible that it's what the Clinton internals are showing. And it could well be true. The second reason is where the problem is. Even if you assume that the Clinton campaign is getting numbers that are making them confident of a good night tomorrow night, it simply makes no sense for them to broadcast the numbers like this.

Here's why.

The game is heavily about expectations at this point. And the public polls are showing a fairly close race. Far better for the Clinton camp to keep expectations right there and surprise people with a low double-digit win. Switching expectations to 10 points, only to meet those expectations makes no sense, especially since Clinton started 6 weeks ago with a 15 or 20 point margin.

Given the improbability of the leak and the unreliability of the source, I think we need to consider whether is a set up rather than a genuine leak.

[slinkerwink]

kicking

[bluestateguy]

1. People talk to Drudge

I don't like the little shit, but he finds people to leak to him all over the country.

[book_worm]

2. looks like she will live another day

hope we can get this wrapped up with Obama wins in Indiana and North Carolina.

[slinkerwink]

3. yeah

[BL611]

8. Internals are usually

least accurate. Hillary's internals had her winning Iowa. They are usually based on a target turnout model for the campaign doing them, and a generic turnout model for the opposition. In essence internals should be the most optimistic possible projection (and if her ceiling is +11, thats pretty good for Obama), however she did out do her own polls in NH...

[yourguide]

4. I would like to give the "Master of The Obvious" award to

Mark Penn's polling.

[The Ghost]

5. Arent 'internal polls' just a silly myth?

I mean Ive seen these before, and they have been wrong. What makes INTERNALS so important? Throw the word INTERNAL on it and its supposed to be like some Top Secret document that knows the future?

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Yes, they rely on the paranoid assumption that those in power "know" something we don't

This is the fundamental belief of groveling fools and subservient cowards everywhere.

[RichGirl]

32. They are only myths if you don't like what they say.

I've worked in campaigns and internal polling is very expensive and the prupose is to get valuable information for the campaign. These polls tell them where they are strong and where they are weak, so they can make the appropriate adjustments. There would be absolutely no purpose in spending a lot of money on an inaccurate poll.

[Leopolds Ghost]

45. And yet alcibiades #9 is correct

All polling is expensive. If anything, the fact that it is being done by
an interested party, willing to throw millions of dollars away on sharks
that could be better spent helping people, makes it less likely to be accurate.

[Eurobabe]

6. I don't believe a thing that campaign says

Obama by +2.

[BigDDem]

31. Using the BO method...

Barry must win PA by 2+ or it's a HUGE loss for him.

[Eurobabe]

46. Using the Hilly method, if she wins by ONE its a blowout

What a mess Clinton has on her hands. Too bad she blew it.

[Azathoth]

7. Now we get to see just how reliable the vaunted "internal polling" really is

Penn's firm is gonna look like shit if Obama comes within single digits.

[The Ghost]

11. Exactly. BOOKMARK this thread!

n/t

[Zachstar]

12. Look at the history of Gore

His polling said Gore was on track to victory and yet later other polls said differently.

So if they are still using his system then they are seriously in trouble.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. Makes you wonder - Clinton and Obama had Obama win in NH

on both internals !

[BlooInBloo]

10. DUers and their Drudge. How jackass is that? Ah...

EDIT: Now I see what's more jackass: self-kicking one's own Drudge thread.

[4themind]

13. Fine, if this is true then

If she goes BELOW that, she didn't meet her expectations, by definition.

[closeupready]

24. That won't change anything. Look at Texas.

She lost Texas even though she claims she won it, when originally, it was mandatory that she win it by a LARGE MARGIN. And further, if she didn't win by a large margin, it was supposed to have been over.

So regardless of whether she wins PA by 11% or not, she'll stay in it for a while, I think.

[thewiseguy]

14. Hillary says she will win by 11?

[kenny blankenship]

54. And it's nowhere near enough, even if it turns out to be true

Does she love McCain THAT MUCH? Or is it just hatred for Obama and the Democrats?

[Bullet1987]

15. Internal polling is not the Be All, End All it's made out to be

Which is why it's never released because it's often wrong.

[The Ghost]

16. I love this stupid shit from Drudge

"Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton's inner circle... Developing..."

[Azathoth]

20. I get the impression Drudge is trying to set Hillaryland up for a fall

Someone at the campaign got excited and leaked the polling data, and now Drudge is pushing it hard with the hope that Hillaryland will look like a bunch of fools if she doesn't win by at least 11 points.

[lojasmo]

17. Sounds like Karl Rove's 'math' EOM

[redqueen]

19. Her campaign doesn't have an official liaison to leak stuff to Drudge.

As far as I know.

[Sensitivity]

23. YES IT DOES. A FULL TIME STAFFER IS ASSIGNED TO WORK WITH DRUDGE

[redqueen]

27. Are you sure? Sure that's not just heresay? That's pretty damning...

I would think it would be, anyway... but considering that Scaife came out and officially endorsed her... well...

:think:

[MadBadger]

28. I read they did from Marc Ambinder

[redqueen]

29. I've read the same thing...

It pains me to think about how closely she's aligned herself with the forces that she's allegedly against.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. All the hoopla and this only equates to a measly

17 delegates:

AVERAGE WORST CASE SCENARIO - CLINTON WINNING MARGIN: 10.78 %
On Edit: AVERAGE BEST CASE SCENARIO - ERROR RATE APPLIED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION: CLINTON WINNING MARGIN: 5.5%



DELEGATES

Clinton Margin: 4
Clinton Delegate Gain: 6

Clinton Margin: 6
Clinton Delegate Gain: 10

Clinton Margin: 8
Clinton Delegate Gain: 12

Clinton Margin: 10
Clinton Delegate Gain: 16

Clinton Margin: 12
Clinton Delegate Gain: 18

Clinton Margin: 14
Clinton Delegate Gain: 22

Clinton Margin: 16
Clinton Delegate Gain: 26

Current Obama Delegate Lead: 141
LIKELY OUTCOME: 141 - 17 = 124

[TheDoorbellRang]

22. Hmmm. Obama's "internal" take on it was a 5 point win for Clinton

The Obama camp prediction was made back around February 5th.

:popcorn:

[slinkerwink]

26. that internal is old though

[TheDoorbellRang]

38. Still, they've been remarkably prescient

Obama Delegate Spreadsheet

[WA98296]

25. That's NOT a Poll, that's a purchase order for programing for the touch screens

[Zavulon]

30. "Leaked," my ass. Try "written and intentionally released / disseminated by Clinton team."

Even if that miserable POS restricted polling to members of her own team, she probably couldn't muster up a double-digit lead.

[4themind]

34. Give this man the prize

[The Ghost]

35. This is their Monday surprise

to try and create momentum going into tomorrow

[mckeown1128]

36. Trying to tell voters not to bother to vote??? NT

[The Ghost]

37. i think ...

to try and get people excited and to, yes, BELIEVE shes gonna win and thus want to vote. I dont know, just a silly hunch! :) :)

[mod mom]

33. Internal poll= Mark Penn

:rofl:

[noel711]

39. What are 'internal' polls?

Does that mean we poll everyone in the campaign office?

Or do we telephone our donor list?

What's the baseline?

[HereSince1628]

41. And why would anyone rate them more reliable than the polls of others?

I'm wondering why a campaign thinks their numbers are better? Anyone round here ever help a campaign interpret polls?

Does a campaign poll more people and have a smaller moe?

Are the poll questions of an internal poll more valid than those used by others?

[Imagevision]

40. Drudge - FOXnews same shit! read the inquirer

[slinkerwink]

42. Clinton camp just denied the internal poll release on Politico

[RamboLiberal]

43. Come on PA - Surprise me and put the Clinton campaign out of its misery!

I'm so hoping my state proves me wrong. I think she wins - but I hope its a lot closer than 11! And I'd love a surprise of PA going for Obama! End the Clinton moving the goal posts NOW!

[MadBadger]

44. I think hes lying.

[my3boyz]

47. I remember right before the 2004 election John Kerry's internals

showed that they were winning VA. Well, we know how that turned out. Yeah, it was too close to call for a little while but then GW Bush had a big win here.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. I'll take it!

And laugh all the way to the nomination. :woohoo:

[CANDO]

49. Why is everything "leaked" out of Hillary's camp....

funneled through right-wing channels such as Drudge?

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Coexist]

51. great! so if she only wins by 9, its a "huge upset"

[npincus]

52. I think HRC leaked that to encourage donors- she's in the red now.

[JCMach1]

53. Message to OP, quit reading Sludge

that is all