Pennsylvania. The Numbers. Part 2.

[dbmk]

Hello everyone!

Time for

The Danish Pennsylvania Democratic Primaries Prediction Projection Presentation v2.0

See v1.0 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5575980">here.



Been searching for predictions on the districts today.

So far I have found five different takes on it:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/12/17239/2856">minvis at myDD (yeah, I know, but it is relatively unbiased afaict)
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=888">Al Giordano at TheField
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/19/141034/315/327/499022">PsiFighter37 at dKos
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375&cpage=1">CQPolitics
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/21/1428/76737/233/500141">ObamaManiac2008 at dKos

The first two are from march 12. The next two are relatively fresh from within the last week. And the last is from today.
Apply whatever source critique you feel it needs. :)

So lets take it one district at the time:



South and central Philadelphia; Chester

minvis: 4-3
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 4-3
OM08: 5-2

Thing is - registration is way up in this area and especially around the AA communities and college areas. Add to that an overall 51% AA population.
It is viewed as increasingly likely that this could go 5-2 for Obama. To get there he has to break 64,286%.

That would prob. require about half the white vote. I can see that happening. A guy at dKos said he would give everyone there a dollar if it didn't break that way :).
I am not going to go as far. And it would be easy to downplay expectations, and err in favour of Hillarys.

But I do think all the indications are strong enough that I will call it 5-2.




West Philadelphia(born and rais<STOOOOP!> ok, sorry.); Chestnut Hill; Cheltenham
(Split listed Obama-Clinton)
minvis: 6-3
AG: 6-3
PsiFighter: 7-2
CQpolitics: 7-2
OM08: 7-2

As you can see the newer predictions say 7-2. That needs a 72,222% vote for Obama.
The area is majority AA with an addition of a sizeable group of high education liberals. In that light the needed percentage is definately likely.
I am keeping that at 7-2. 83,333% for an 8-1 split is probably out of the question.




Northwest — Erie

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

In order for Obama to avoid the 1-4 split he needs to clear 30%. Not a good area for him, but he didn't go under 30 in the nearby Ohio areas, afaict, so I think 2-3 is the likely split. 3-2 seems way out of the question. Don't be overly surprised if it goes 1-4 though.



West — Pittsburgh suburbs

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Same deal as CD #3. Except here the suburbs of Pittsburgh should make it relatively sure that he clears the 30% threshold. Calling it 2-3 Clinton.




North central — State College

minvis: 2-2
AG: 1-3
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

For it to break 1-3 or 3-1 either needs to take 62,5%. And it could look p0ssible for Hillary, if it wasn't for Penn State. 2-2 it is. Outside chance of 1-3 Clinton.




Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs

minvis: 3-3
AG: 3-3
PsiFighter: 3-3
CQpolitics: 3-3
OM08: 3-3

The break to a 4-2 split here is 58,333%. This could come down to the turnout and how new voters and undecided break. I have seen nothing to support a break either way though. Sticking with the five above. 3-3.



Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County

minvis: 3-4
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 4-3

Joe Sestak has endorsed Clinton. High income, highly educated parts, white area. Depends highly on turnout.
Very tough call. Sounds and looks like it could be 4-3 Obama if he gets enough new democrats.
Afraid to be too optimistic Obamas way and calling it 3-4 in Clintons favour.
64,286% for a 5-2 for either is not likely.



Northern Philadelphia suburbs — Bucks County

minvis: 4-3
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 3-4

Seems very similar to CD #7. Except here we have Obama support in Patrick J. Murphy, an Irag veteran that will probably, and probably already has, worked hard for Obama.
4-3 Obama. Its close though.
Again: 64,286% for a 5-2 for either is not likely.




South central — Altoona

minvis: 1-2
AG: 1-2
PsiFighter: 1-2
CQpolitics: 1-2
OM08: 1-2

Red country. Clinton will surely take this with 50+ for the odd delegate. But 83,333%
for all three is more or less out of the question.




Northeast — Central Susquehanna Valley

minvis: 2-2
AG: 1-3
PsiFighter: 1-3
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 1-3

Strong Clinton country. She needs to break 62,5% to get the 3-1 split and probably will. It _could_ go 2-2 i the close polls holds up. And I will get back to that down below.
1-3 it is.




District #11 -- Northeast — Scranton, Wilke-Barre

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 1-4
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Scranton+ should be Clinton territory. If she breaks 70% its here. Even with Casey out for Obama.
Calling it 1-4 for Clinton.




District #12 Southwest — Johnstown

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 1-4
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 1-4

Again strong Clinton country. Throw in Murtha and we have a probable 1-4 in Clintons favour. Only plus for Obama is a lot of surburban area preventing him falling under 30%. Possibly. Calling it 2-3.

#11 could go 2-3 and #12 could go 1-4 depending on how well Obama does overall.




District #13 East — Northeast Philadelphia, part of Montgomery County

minvis: 3-4
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 3-4
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 3-4

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz is a Hillary backer, but it being quite diverse Philly suburbs, it will probably contain Clinton to a 4-3 split.




District #14 Pittsburgh and some close-in suburbs

minvis: 4-3
AG: 3-4
PsiFighter: 3-4
CQpolitics: 4-3
OM08: 4-3

3rd highest AA population of the districts just under 25%. besides that it should be advantage Clinton. Going a little out on a limb, so you can laugh at me afterwards, and call it 4-3 Obama as I think he will break the 50% mark here.




District #15 East — Allentown, Bethlehem

minvis: 2-3
AG: 2-3
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Clinton will win this one. But not with the 70% needed to break it 4-1. Think this is one of the the more solid results and picking it at 2-3.




District #16 Southeast — Lancaster, part of Reading

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Surburban area. Nothing to indicate that either will break the 62,5% mark for a 3-1. If it does it will be Clinton. But then Obama has probably had a relatively bad day.
2-2 it is.



District #17 East central — Harrisburg, Lebanon, Pottsville

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Rural area and Clinton land, with Harrisburg thrown in. She probably wont break the 62,5% mark for a 3-1, And some even think a small win for Obama here is not out of the question. But small doesn't move delegates in a 4 delegate district.
2-2 it is.




District #18 West — Pittsburgh suburbs, part of Washington and Westmoreland counties

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Large rural areas, combined with high education suburbs. Enough to give Clinton 50%+ but not 70%+. for a 1-4.
Quite sure this goes 2-3.




District #19 South central — York, Gettysburg

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Good Clinton base, but neighbouring Maryland areas show Obama have some strength here. At least enough to keep it above 37,5% for a 2-2 split.

----

So there we have it. My take on other peoples takes (yeah, you'll have to forgive me. My american history and geography classes here in Denmark were limited, so I take the help I can get :) ).

And my total is: Obama 50 - Clinton 53.
Same as the first time, arriving via a slightly different path.

--

Now on to something interesting:

The polls on popular vote. And the delegates they bring.

I have:
SUSA - Clinton 50 Obama 44
Mason-Dixon - Clinton 48, Obama 43
Rasmussen - Clinton 49, Obama 44
Quinnipiac - Clinton 51, Obama 44
Suffolk - Clinton 52, Obama 42
PPP - Obama 49, Clinton 46
...
..
..
Now who choked on their preferred beverage on the last one?

It would be easy to dismiss that as a statistical outlier - and probably is to some degree.
But as far as I can tell PPP has been on the money so far. And they called Wisconsin when everone else was calling them crazy. We could be in for something interesting here. If it holds up, any possible flips in the above, can go Obamas way.

I will calculate them into the average of all 6, which gives us:

Obama 44,333 Clinton 49,333

Seems they all agree that the undecideds will break 6-4 for Clinton. But new registrations is expected to break likewise for Obama. So I will split them evenly.

That gives us:

PLEOs: Obama 10 Clinton 10

At-Large: Obama 17 Clinton 18.

There is a threshold right around the 5% and 6% in the two cases, so Clinton could likely gain up to 4 more if it swings just a little her way from those numbers.

But it leaves my total at 4 delegates for Hillary. Possibly 6 or 8.

That can of course all change if one of the wider margins polled holds up. But even Suffolks 10 point spread only gives her 5 of the Statewide delegates. But that would probably also mean that she flips a district or two for a total of 12.

But just for fun, and to validate all my work, I am going to stick to my 4 delegate result.
You can always fire me as your number cruncher after tomorrow.

This of course will be turned upside down if Obama runs away with the popular vote like PPP predicts currently.

But what do you guys say? Am I crazy? Have I completely missed a truckload of points?

[FrenchieCat]

1. Wow!

Well done! isn't your total 50-43 though....cause you've got 50-53? :shrug:

[dbmk]

2. 50-53 should be correct - listing Obama first

There is 103 district delegates in play.

I'll make it clear that Obama is listed first.

[AtomicKitten]

3. Sold!

I'll take it. He'll hold her down in popular vote and virtually split the delegates.

Done.

Great work. Thanks for an interesting and different perspective on this race.

IMHO it's a crapshoot tomorrow. I have high hopes but absolutely no expectations. I am reasonably confident if Obama sustains any damage, he will repair it and then some in No. Carolina. So, it's all good.

K&R :hi:

[LakeSamish706]

4. That works for me, however this will not stop the Troll from fighting on....

I predict that Clinton will take this nomination race as far as she can to do as much damage to Obama as she can.

[AtomicKitten]

5. I've been saying for weeks it's going to take

a blow dart, animal tranquilizer, and a net. ;)

[livetohike]

6. You are amazing dbmk!

Thanks for all this work. Very interesting and I think you're right on with this analysis. I'm hoping it's Obama 51 - Clinton 49 (with heavy turnout in Philly and Pgh. breaking for Obama).

[dbmk]

7. The more I look at PPP and their trackrecord

The more I am sure this will be close.

They have been very solid all the way through. And they have been polling +/- 3% for both candidates for a week or so I think. Edit: For four weeks, as far as I can tell. Latest poll results http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042108.pdf">here
It makes me pretty confident that we will not see a double digit win for Hillary.

If Obama keeps it under 5% she will gain close to nothing. Possibly nothing if the chips fall right for him in the districts.

[Shae]

8. Larry Kane, the guest on Hardball tonight

said that Obama has been playing the expectations game, but has said today that Hillary will win, but it will be close. Mr. Kane is wondering what Obama knows that we don't know.

[babylonsister]

9. Wow! Thats a lot of work. Rec'd! And thanks! nt

[DerekJ]

10. Great Analysis, to me it’s better than all those polls out there. Thank you.

K & R

[quantass]

11. My God...what do they put in Denmark's water? I feel ashamed as a Canadian :(

You know more about the Americans than the Americans....you prolly know about my coutnry too
Fantastic work, dbmk!

Btw, your english is astonishingly precise....i feel doubly-guilty for not being as bi-lingual as i should (we are taught french as our 2nd language but i think i forgot most of it...and last i checked, french was a dead language :scared:)
:hi:

[dbmk]

12. Well...

Most of the above has been learned scouring the web the last few days. (read; Blatantly stolen. :) )

Most of my friends dont quite understand that I put THAT much time into this. But we have a historic moment around the corner and damned important change needed in the US as well. And I get to combine it with learning about the US and crunching some numbers at the same time :) Its all good.

As far as language goes, stick with english. :) I more and more find it easier to find the right word in english compared to danish, because there simply is that many more and more precise terms. Goes for my friends too.
(Had french for a year in school and I am pretty sure all I can remember is "In the church". :) )

[peoli]

13. I didnt read it, someone tell me who wins...

[grantcart]

14. The key will be in modeling in the new voters.

PPP was by far the best in Wisconsin in predicting the crossover factor. I would hate to bet against them in this case. The also tend to have larger poll samples.

Also there is another factor here that has completely escaped polling, as it really is a one off event and that is what percentage of fence sitters and Clinton sympathizers will vote for Obama (or simply stay home) becuase although they may support Clinton have decided that it is not helpful to continue. If only 3-4 out of 100 feel that way it would have a dramatic effect. I do not think that polling would pick up such a sensitive feeling in the populace.

I am still holding out for a small Obama win.


What is not at question is the quality of your outstanding work and a very effective presentation.


Please do a follow up afterwards so we can see who was closest.


Great work.

[dbmk]

16. Thanks!

And yeah, as far as I an tell it is a BIG problem for the pollers with many new voters.

And as far as I can gather, they are expected to break 6-4 for Obama.

It leaves Hillary with a bit of a catch 22 - if turnout is high she will prob get hammered. If its low she will prob win. But then her popular vote gain will be correspondingly smaller. And that is prob. one of the crutches she is leaning on atm.

And if the race so far is to be any indicator, as well as the number of newly registered democrats, then turnout should be substantial.

[Willo]

15. This is really helpful dbmk

I like that you added the individual congressional districts, makes it much easier for me to follow.

Now we just have to factor in where those e-voting machines are and how much damage they may cause.
I'm thinking Obama will win by 5 or less but the votes will show he lost by 5.

Can someone explain a few things about exit polls? Who does and/or can conduct them? Will they be conducted in each district & voting site?

I've bookmarked this. I'm hoping we get information before the "official count"

Thanks again, dbmk

[dbmk]

17. Why does KO have to interview Hillary right after I post this?

And yes, this was a shameless kick for myself before I go to bed. :)

[phrigndumass]

18. "K"ick ass and "R"aise the roof!

Excellent work, dbmk!

Let's assume your scale favored Senator Clinton, and she wins Pennsylvania by six points (53-47). That would give her a net gain of only 120,000 votes out of two million. Winning the "popular" vote in this year's primary would then be impossible for Senator Clinton, and the Pennsylvania votes would prove beyond doubt that Senator Obama is just as electable.

:thumbsup: Good on ya!

[DemsUnited]

19. kick & rec & hoping your right!

[Kukesa]

20. Wow! Impressive work. Many thanks. n/t

[malik flavors]

21. Thanks for the analysis (Chuck Todd?). 50 - 53 would be a dream come true. I don't honestly...

believe it will happen that way, but that's just me being pessimistic.

I hope you're right.

[dbmk]

22. I don't think the districts will give a much different result.

It could tip to Hillary in a few and give her +9 from the districts.
If that happens we are probably looking at a 15 point win though overall. adding another 7 or 9 from the statewides.

[dbmk]

23. Al Giardino has updated his prediction

And lo and behold:
He arrives at the same as me. http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/">Link.

[grantcart]

24. kick

[grantcart]

25. kick

[dbmk]

26. Thank you, grantcart

And let me use this kick to promote some other numbers I did:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5622718&mesg_id=5624900

[grantcart]

27. kick hey do you know where we can get district vote reports?

[dbmk]

29. No. :(

Been asking and looking all day. :)

I'll message you if I find them.

[dbmk]

30. Well, sometimes the answer is simple :)

http://padems.com/

Can't find a combined overview though. Looks like its the place to start at least.

[dbmk]

31. Looks like this is the best bet.

http://padems.com/

Can't find a combined overview though. Looks like its the place to start at least.

[dbmk]

32. Here we go

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=15&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

Problem is that the extensive gerrymandering of the repubs has left quite a few counties sliced and diced, and will be close to impossible for the layman to assign to districts for precise numbers, if its close.

[dbmk]

33. And here

http://www.nytimes.com/?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1208911437-3NNmWFNUlutE9JKYUq6JMw

[thevoiceofreason]

28. Great job.

We'll be watching!

GOBAMA

[Liberal In Texas]

34. Al Giordano? Does Clive Cussler know one of his long running characters is running a

political blog?
B-)

[dbmk]

35. Well, off to bed.

Will be back with updates and reflection on this, later today(Danish time :) ).