The math only gets gloomier for Clinton

[JackBeck]

Slate's Delegate Calculator

The math only gets gloomier for Clinton—even after a big Pennsylvania win.

By Chris Wilson and Chadwick Matlin

Updated Wednesday, April 23, 2008, at 1:03 AM ET

Hillary Clinton's 10-point victory in Pennsylvania awards her a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates, based on projections from the popular vote. Because Pennsylvania awards about two-thirds of its delegates by district, we won't have a precise figure until later this week.

Coming into today, the odds that Clinton would catch Obama in pledged delegates were very small. Now they're zero. Before Pennsylvania, Clinton needed to win each remaining primary with 65 percent of the vote to close the gap. Even though she won Pennsylvania, that figure is now just over 68 percent. (Try it on the calculator below by dragging the red bar at the top to the right.) Furthermore, the state with the most remaining delegates is North Carolina, where Obama leads in the polls by about 20 points. Assuming he nets at least 20 more of the state's 115 delegates, Clinton needs 80 percent of the vote in each of the other eight remaining primaries to catch up.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[Triana]

1. ...

[JackBeck]

5. Slate's being generous by calling the win "big".

Can't wait to see how DU's Hillary supporters justify a single digit win.

[Triana]

32. Well - the media just lies about it and claims it's a double-digit win..

...when it isn't. I guess Hillary supporters can just go along with that meme.

[cliffordu]

8. Man, them are some Fucked Up goalposts...

[davidpdx]

26. Now THAT'S a train wreck

All aboard the Hillary express...now departing for a steep cliff near you.

[ScarletSniper]

36. lmao..nice visual

[Endangered Specie]

2. who cares about numbers when you have spin, lies, exaggerations, and media blitz?

[kenny blankenship]

3. Aaand the postmortems of Hillary's failed 2008 Presidential bid begin!

[Aloha Spirit]

4. The Clinton camp stopped caring about pledged delegates a while ago....

It's all about winning big states.
Those are the tinted glasses through which her campaign sees itself.

[bhikkhu]

6. and the bank accounts are empty...

Thanks for the good summary!

[TwilightGardener]

7. After all is said and done, this is what it boils down to. She's waiting

for incriminating photos, or for Obama's plane to crash, or something else terrible to happen to him--what an ugly thing to hinge the rest of your doomed campaign on.

[cliffordu]

9. SO: what's her debt to delegate ratio???

[Eurobabe]

10. She's spinning the SHIT out of this victory, as is the MSM.

Winning Pennsylvania is DEEPLY PERSONAL for her, according to the CNN ticker.

Pass me the puke bucket. :puke: :puke:

[Guaranteed]

12. Yup, including the margin. "10 point victory" is an out-and-out lie. nt

[pointsoflight]

11. It's even worse than this for Hillary.

She'll only gain 10 delegates, not 16. She now needs 70+ percent of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama. OVER SEVENTY PERCENT. Including states like North Carolina and Oregon. Simply not possible.

[Hardrada]

16. Gott sei Dank!

[Eurobabe]

17. Ich höre eine famliäre Sprache...

:hi:

[Hardrada]

37. Ja, Guten Tag!

[speedoo]

13. Slate's wrong.

She didn't win by 10 points, probably closer to 8.5.

And she won't net 16 delegates, probably closer to 10.

This will end no later than May 20, in Oregon. But it's effectively over now, because PA was her last chance to begin to catch up, and she failed.

[JackBeck]

14. She's broke because of Penn.

Obama closed a gap that was over 20 points.

He outspent Hillary, because he had the money and she didn't.

(That's not an evil thing Hillary supporters. 3:1 looks really bad for your candidate)

And now she is millions of dollars in debt.

[knixphan]

21. yippee! I'm glad to know my donation helped

close that gap.

Defense is part of a well-rounded game, and we played solid defense in a state with some racist areas.

Now, back to offense!

[JackBeck]

34. Tell me about it.

A few years back to drove to Ohio from Brooklyn. I witnessed those pockets of racist areas.

:scared:

[Austinitis]

15. So? Catching him in popular vote is more than enough, The pledged delegate count is hugely

undemocratic. In fact, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5624851">super-delegates will be stealing the election if the hand the nomination to anyone other than the popular vote winner.

[JackBeck]

18. Your post is one of the most intellectually retarded statements

that I have seen in quite some time.

[scheming daemons]

19. A) She's still 500K down in popular vote B) he'll pick up everything he lost in pop vote in NC

[sandnsea]

20. I hope her money has at least helped some regular folks pay the bills n/t

[MattBaggins]

22. It was fine for decades

Didn't have a problem with it when her husband did the same thing.

Now that she is losing in a system that was gamed to ensure candidates like her would win; she has a problem with it.

[Asgaya Dihi]

24. You do realize how weak that argument is I'd hope?

Look at the rules and tell me when you think they changed. How long exactly has it been that pledged delegates have been the standard, the goal, the only goal? Did that just sneak up on the "ready on day one" campaign somehow?

The merits of that system aside, and I've got problems with it too, that is the system we've had for ages. Same one Bill got elected under, similar as Bush did with the electoral vote, same one as they started this race with. Same one we'll finish it with. The time to change it is between races and not during them. It's electoral votes or pledged delegates depending on the race, not popular vote.

It doesn't in any way support your arguments of ready on day one, most prepared, best able to win against the repubs, most knowledgeable about the system or anything else to act as if the whole system just snuck up on you and you require special breaks and assistance to somehow make it "fair". If you can't beat Obama by the rules then any criticism of him as unprepared just leaves us to wonder how much less prepared you must be. That might be why the SDs have been breaking his way for the last few weeks. Your own arguments make yours look the lesser candidate and the SDs know the rules even if you don't.

edit to clarify a line

[ima_sinnic]

25. ewww, the ugly smell of desperation

who said a primary was "democratic"? It's a party thing. Mz. Wannabe Rambo is NOT going to be handed the nomination after dissing the party by insinuating that McCain would be a better president than one of her own team members. She has shown she is not loyal to the Democratic Party but only to the "Clinton Party."

[Usrename]

29. Too bad that's not the party rules.

Maybe you should start a third party.

You can make up any rules you like.

[tiptoe]

23. Another delegate calculator here: "Primary MATH Made Easy"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5602940&mesg_id=5602940

[locker13]

27. according to chuck todd

http://presidentobama2008.blogspot.com/2008/04/chuck-todd-impossible-for-obama-to-lose.html

[SunsetDreams]

28. Amen to that! It's the Math Stupid :)

[dbmk]

30. A graph

Hillary passed the point where she now 100% NEEDS SDs to win. Its not even technically possible for her to win on pledged delegates alone.

Its not a real argument ofc, but still a significant point to reach, I think.

[LibertyorDeath]

31. ROTFLMAO!!

"the odds that Clinton would catch Obama in pledged delegates were very small. Now they're zero."

I"m of to bed .....

For all the die hard Hill supporters :hi:

"the odds that Clinton would catch Obama in pledged delegates were very small. Now they're zero."

Cheers!

[NJmaverick]

33. That's the problem, math unlike Hillary doesn't lie

[guyanakoolaid]

35. Depends on your definition of "math"

:P