Simple MATH: If remaining pledged delegates split 50/50, Clinton needs 69% of uncommitted Super Ds..

[tiptoe]

to get to 2024. (Download the Excel Delegate Calculator)

The Excel Delegate Calculator
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm

April 24, 2008

The Pennsylvania primary only served to postpone the inevitable: Clinton's 9-point win just put Obama in a much stronger position to get the 2024 total delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1488–1338 in pledged delegates.
On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165). Her lead has been cut to 24 (262-238).

For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs to win 69% of the vote in the remaining primaries.
If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 32% of the 295 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

This graph displays the effect of Obama projected shares on the pledged delegate () count.

This is a graph of the trend in super delegates ().

This is a graph of the required super delegates () needed by Obama to win the nomination over various projected primary vote shares.

This is a summary of the 2008 Primaries.

The Delegate Calculator is an Excel worksheet for projecting the total number of pledged and super delegates.

TruthIsAll

24-Apr-08

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm

Enter current data and projected vote shares in BLUE cells only

Total Pledged and Super Delegates needed to win: 2024 (excl. FL, MI)

Current Delegates

Projected Delegates

           Pledged  Super    Total
Obama      1488     238      1728
Clinton    1338     262      1600
Other      19
Total      2845     500      3326

                                         Pledged+
          Pledged Total   Super  Total   Super
Obama     204     1691    50.0%  386     2077
Clinton   204     1543    50.0%  410     1952
Other               19                     19
Total     408     3253           795     3038

Remaining  408      295       703

 

Pledged Delegates

 Pre- March 4      Total     Vote share %      Delegates
 Primaries     Delegates     BO      HRC       BO    HRC
Pledged            2253    52.3%   47.7%    1207   1046

       Post-March 4      Total     Vote share %      Delegates
       Primary       Delegates     BO      HRC       BO    HRC
 3/04  OH                  144     45       55       65     76
 3/04  RI                   21     41       59        8     13
 3/04  TX                  193     47       51       99     94
 3/04  VT                   15     59       39        9      6
 3/08  WY                   12     61       38        7      5
 3/11  MS                   33     61       37       20     13
 4/22  PA                  158     46       54       73     85

       Total               573    47.4%    51.7%    281    292

 

Current Pledged             2826    51.4%    48.6%   1488   1338

 

Current Super                500    47.6%    52.4%    238    262
Current Total               3326    51.9%    48.1%   1726   1600

 

Pledged Delegate Projections (enter BO vote shares only)

                         Total     Vote share %      Delegates
 Date  Primary       Delegates     BO      HRC       BO    HRC
 5/03  Guam                  4     50       50        2      2
 5/06  IN                   72     50       50       36     36
 5/06  NC                  115     55       45       63     52
 5/13  WV                   28     42       58       12     16
 5/20  KY                   51     40       60       20     31
 5/20  OR                   52     55       45       29     23
 6/01  PR                   55     45       55       25     30
 6/03  MT                   16     55       45        9      7
 6/03  SD                   15     55       45        8      7

       Total               408    50.0%    50.0%    204    204

 

Projected Pledged           3234    51.2%    48.8%   1691   1543

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 


                                 Obama Projected Share of Remaining Pledged Delegates
Delegates           32%      34%      36%      38%      40%      42%      44%      46%      48%      50%
Pledged
BO                  131      139      147      155      163      171      180      188      196      204
HRC                 277      269      261      253      245      237      228      220      212      204
 

Projected Total Pledged
BO                 1618     1626     1635     1643     1651     1659     1667     1675     1684     1692
HRC                1616     1608     1599     1591     1583     1575     1567     1559     1550     1542
Diff                  2       19       35       51       68       84      100      117      133      149

Projected Pledged + Current Super
BO                 1856     1864     1873     1881     1889     1897     1905     1913     1922     1930
HRC                1878     1870     1861     1853     1845     1837     1829     1821     1812     1804
Diff               (22)      (5)       11       27       44       60       76       93      109      125


Super            	        Obama  Share of Uncommitted Super Delegates Needed to Clinch
Delegates           168      160      151      143      135      127      119      111      102       94
Share              56.9%    54.1%    51.3%    48.6%    45.8%    43.0%    40.3%    37.5%    34.7%    32.0%


                       Super delegate share required by Obama for various projected pledged vote shares
Pledged             32%      34%      36%      38%      40%      42%      44%      46%      48%      50%
Super              56.9%    54.1%    51.3%    48.6%    45.8%    43.0%    40.3%    37.5%    34.7%    32.0%

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Bullshit

Bush just signed an executive order banning math.

Ha ha! Now Clinton will win!

[tiptoe]

3. D'oh! nt

[Ravy]

2. The way I see it,

and I don't really care which one wins... is that the largest chunk of the remaining superdelegates will vote more or less as a block. If they haven't committed by now, I think they are waiting for a nod from someone.

There may be several blocks out there among the SDs. I don't believe for a second that they are all acting independently.

[tiptoe]

4. Announcements like the following could be influential:

MAJOR CLINTON FUNDRAISER DEFECTS TO OBAMA

[tiptoe]

5. Another super delegate announced for Obama. 4/25

http://www.kmph.com/Global/story.asp?S=8230784&nav=menu612_2_6

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. This is all backwards.

The f'ing superdelegates could and should endorse NOW.

If only 40% of the ones who currently exist (not add-ons to be chosen later) endorsed Obama, he would need only 45% of the remaining Pledged Delegates up for grabs in the final states/territories.

Since all the polls show he'll do better than that, we could pretty much call him the presumptive nominee and start working on McCain.

[tiptoe]

8. yep...and this factor has been prolonging the delay on attending to McCain:

Election Fraud: Obama Should Have Won the Nomination By Now

[jackson_dem]

7. God bless Rev. Wright!!!!!!

Great job doing that work, tipetoe. Here are some points you overlooked:

1) She needs 69% to get to 2,024. She needs less, probably around 62-63% to prevent Obama from getting 2,024 and taking this to the second ballot, where all bets are off because delegates are free to vote as they wish then. This is a scenario under which Gore could emerge.

2) She needs that percentage if FL and MI are seated. If they are the delegate gap closes, even if uncommitted is given to Obama, and the magic number becomes 2,208. She would need a lot smaller percentage of supers if FL or FL and MI get in.

3) She will likely enjoy a net delegate gain in the remaining primaries, chiefly due to blowouts in WV and KY.

[tiptoe]

9. we'll see how things play out. nt