Why the "They both need the superdelegates!" argument is BOGUS...

[scheming daemons]

Yes.... it's technically true. There are currently about 300 uncommitted Superdelegates and neither can win the nomination without getting a percentage of them.


But here's the rub.

Assuming best case scenarios for Clinton in all of the remaining contests, and she'll still need more than 200 of those 300 Superdelegates to get the nomination.


Obama would only need about 100 of them.


Since Feb 5th, Obama has gained over 80 superdelegates.... Clinton has gained less than 10.


Based on that... in WHAT universe do Clinton supporters envision Hillary getting 200+ of the remaining 300 superdelegates? These people are uncommitted for a reason. If they were likely Hillary superdelegates, they would've come out in her favor a LONG time ago.


The only way Obama would conceivably get LESS than 100 of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates would be if a scandal so large would break (the proverbial being caught with a live boy or a dead girl) that he drops out of the race.



Yes... it is true that they BOTH need help from the Superdelegates to get the nomination.... but Hillary needs to get 70% of them - a virtual impossibility. Obama needs to only get 30% or so of them - a virtual certainty.

[Cronus Protagonist]

1. You negated your headline with the first line of your post!

hahah :P

[Rageneau]

2. I'm looking to lose some money on Hillary. Who'll give me 10-1 for $50?

The appropriate phrase here is, "Put your money where your mouth is."

If Obama is such a sure thing to win the nomination, I want to offer up to 10 people in his camp a way to make fifty bucks off me, said amount to be accompanied by a signed statement admitting the better candidate won. (Think of it as a way to hurt and punish me for being a fervent Hillary supporter.)

All you have to do to claim this prize is to promise to do exactly the same thing for me should Hillary win. But, since Obama supporters absolutely know that Hillary cannot in any circumstances win this thing (whereas Hillary supporters acknowledge that Obama really DOES seem to have it locked up), I propose we make the bet more fair by installing odds of ten to one, Obama over Hillary.

There you have it. Take my bet and if BO wins, I pay you $50 and acknowledge that the better candidate won. If HRC wins, you pay me 500 bucks and provide me with a similar statement. In the interim, we'll get someone to hold the money until the nomination is official.

Since it's a sure thing, you Obama supporters better get in on it quick, cause I can't afford to take the 'action' of more than 10 people.

[scheming daemons]

4. If you were so sure of YOUR candidate, you'd make it an even bet....

[crankychatter]

3. "Thank you for your recommendation" DU is zo nize.

:-)

k/r

[MonkeyFunk]

5. LOL

"It's BOGUS!!!"

"yes, it's technically true"

Quite an argument.

[Blarch]

6. It's over.

[backscatter712]

7. Those hundred superdelegates you mentioned Obama needed?

He's already got them - the Pelosi gang.

They'll endorse when Obama hits 1627 pledged delegates, which will almost certainly happen on May 20th, giving him a mathematical majority of pledged delegates.

It's inevitable, unless Obama eats a baby live on CNN.

He's already won.