Just taking a look at the breakdown of the 2004 CNN National Exit Poll shows why HRC is great choice

[Tropics_Dude83]

First of all, looking at the CNN national exit poll from 2004, I have to say that John Kerry was a fairly strong candidate. Did he lose? Yes? But it was a very narrow loss indeed assuming he lost at all vote wise. Anyway, I just did an extrapolation of the 2004 CNN exit poll. The findings are very encouraging for HRC.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Let's take a look at the gender breakdown first:

VOTE BY GENDER
BUSH
KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Male (46%) 55% +2 44% 0%

Female (54%) 48% +5 51% 0%

Hillary would expand the female vote to 56 or 57% of the total electorate I would argue. Whereas Kerry won women by just 3 points, I think that Hillary would win them by at least the margin that Al Gore did in 2000. She'd probably win women 56-43 or 57-43 nationally.

I admit men would be cool to her. She'd probably lose them 55-45 but if they are as fed as up with the GOP as they claim to be, she could woo enough of them over to negate her losses.

Next we have the racial breakdown:

VOTE BY RACE AND GENDER BUSH
KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

White Men (36%) 62% n/a 37% 0%

White Women (41%) 55% n/a 44% 0%

Non-White Men (10%) 30% n/a 67% 1%

Non-White Women (12%) 24% n/a 75% 1%

I think that non white men and women could easily give Hillary 80-85% each. She could encroach on the white women vote and lose it by perhaps as little as 3 points. White men are a lost cause for either democrat generally.

Look at this graphic:

ARE YOU A WORKING WOMAN? BUSH
KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Yes (29%) 48% n/a 51% 0%

No (71%) 53% n/a 46% 0%

HRC would CLEAN up among working women. Probably win thm 60-40.

Next, we have the vote by religion category

VOTE BY RELIGION BUSH
KERRY NADER
TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Protestant (54%) 59% +3 40% 0%

Catholic (27%) 52% +5 47% 0%

Jewish (3%) 25% +6 74% *

Other (7%) 23% -5 74% 1%

None (10%) 31% +1 67% 1%

HRC has shown remarkable strength among catholics, a critical and swing voting bloc in GE matchups. I could see her winning catholics 53-47 or 55-45. Obama has struggled greatly amongst this group.

She shows remarkable strengths in many categories of the CNN exit poll. The only problem I see is how she might perform amongst African Americans after this struggle. She'll need to reach out to them; however, I think Obama could conceivably just get 35% of the white vote which would negate HRC's AA disadvantage. This shows perhaps the political neccessity of an arranged marriage even though Speaker Pelosi rejects it as of now.

All in all, however, the CNN 2004 exit poll reveals remarkable weaknesses for Barack Obama and hidden strengths for HRC.

[Nitrogenica]

1. Yes, the best choice would be the candidate with less elected delegates.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

2. This is not 2004, and Hillary is not Kerry

She can prove she's electable by winning the nomination. No other metric matters.

[politicasista]

13. Yep. Kerry is a public servant. Hillary is just a politician n/t

[jenmito]

3. Yet on Hardball Matthews said Obama won every one of those groups among people under age 45.

[OzarkDem]

49. Young voters are a small percentage of voters

Their age group doesn't turn out in large numbers.

That's why Obama can't close the deal. His campaign is based on rallying the support of gullible young voters who don't know enough to realize he's lying.

[Aloha Spirit]

55. "can't close the deal" , "gullible young voters" ...do you even realize you're parrotting the people

on TV?

The 18-29 demographic has been a 55% larger slice of the pie over the 2004 Democratic Primary.
That's impressive, and it's the reason Clinton's campaign started courting younger voters.

[pinkpops]

71. I agree - talking points alert. Also "deals" are made in smoked-filled rooms.

[DearAbby]

4. I just love these STRAWMAN ARGUMENTS

lets take an election out of time...and apply it to the current candidates...yeah that's the ticket! Goody goody! :forced interest golf clap::

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. It's looking at numbers like these that caused me to switch

I just see Hillary's path to the presidency a lot more clearly.

Somehow, she has managed to turn herself into a champion of ordinary people "just like you." They have responded. If they respond the same way in the general, we win.

[Liberal Gramma]

16. While she's appealing to some, she's repelling others.

The real question is, which way is the majority? One measure might be that her numbers usually go DOWN after she campaigns somewhere.

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. That's true as well....

Sometimes, I wonder if bringing in somebody like Al Gore might be the answer. Nobel laureate. Environmental hero. Beloved party figure. Aggreived figure who had an election stolen from him.

[azmouse]

23. $109 million worth of 'ordinary person'....

:eyes:

[rodeodance]

51. over what 7years or was it 10? obama made 4. 2 in ONE year. So ORDINARY!!

[cali]

70. the point is does she have a viable realistic chance for the nomination?

No. Short of an Obama implosion, hilly is done. over. and the primary is not the general. Comparisons between the two are spurious. Furthermore, hilly has alienated two many SDs with her shenanigans. No one screwed hilly like hilly.

[NJSecularist]

5. Good points.

Keep in mind, as you said, that white men typically vote overwhelming for the Republicans. Kerry only received 37% of their votes in 2004. Gore only recieved 36% of their vote in 2000. I'd expect Hillary to get around the same - 36 or 37%.

The real key swing demographic, the one that the Democrats can tap into, is the white women demographic. Hillary gives us the best chance to win this key demographic. If we win the white female vote, we win the general election. I cannot see Obama making in-roads among this demographic.

[jenmito]

6. Weren't you an Obama supporter worried about what would be perceived if Obama lost by more than 10

points in PA? He lost by 9.2.

[EmilyAnne]

9. So why do you think McCain would be more appealing than Obama to white women?

That doesn't make any sense to me.

[NJSecularist]

12. Because white women traditionally vote Republican.

They did in 2000, they did in 2002, they did in 2004, they did in 2006, and they'll likely do it in 2008 if Obama is the nominee. Hillary can swing some of those voters over to our side if she is the nominee.

[Tropics_Dude83]

18. And their pride at having a woman as president could bring them over to our side n/t

[EmilyAnne]

34. So you're saying that they would vote for her simply because she is a woman? That's it?

And you think that typically Republican women with their anti-female politics against reproductive rights and gay marriage (lesbian here) will be attracted to Hillary Clinton? Didn't Rush and his ilk coin the term "feminazi" for women such as Hillary Clinton? I don't think we need to worry too much about republican women. If they come to our side, then great. If not, we dems can win this thing without them.

I just don't buy it. These assumptions are based on the fact that more white women are voting for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama in the primary. More black people are voting for Barack Obama. These are largely democrat women and black people, though, and as democrats they will vote for the dem nominee over the republican in the GE.

[woolldog]

7. Get over it. It's not happening.

[AtomicKitten]

8. Welcome to 2008! The obsolete 2004 game plan is used as hamster litter now.

[NJSecularist]

10. Don't you just love how the Obamites don't address your points?

Instead, they'd rather change the subject.

Says alot about the validity of the point you are making, Tropics. Keep it up. Obama is not electable.

[Tropics_Dude83]

15. Yeah I've noticed that NJsecularist

Also, it's scary how some of these subsets could vote if Obama were the nominee. Especially in Ohio where he could win like you said the other day just 2 counties.

This is why I switched. I would prefer to see Obama as president but I don't see how it could happen. I wish it weren't so but it is. I'd rather win with Hillary than lose with Barack.

[jenmito]

17. You go from supporting Obama to calling us "Obamites"? I addressed the points. Why don't you

or any other Hillary supporter address MY points on THIS thread?: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5684671&mesg_id=5684671

[redqueen]

30. Quite the turnaround that one had, eh?

:eyes:

[jenmito]

44. Yup. Must've been a Hillary supporter the whole time to go so negative like that.

:eyes:

[redqueen]

45. Exactly.

It kills me that they think everyone is as gullible as they are.

[jenmito]

46. I agree...

luckily, we're NOT. :hi:

[ruggerson]

65. I feel like I'm reading dialogue from Lord of the Flies

but I haven't decided which one of you is Piggy.

:)

[Indenturedebtor]

19. That's because the points dont matter

These points may have mattered if they were made before she lost. And besides this manifest demograpic destiny nonsense doesn't speak to the ability of candidates to change minds. He's won over more new voters. Far more. So who is going to pull in more new support?

[NJSecularist]

22. The points do matter if you don't want to win the election. n/t

[Aloha Spirit]

25. Also, white women are not a "swing voter" group.

NJSecularist, I appreciate you coming at this from the numbers angle, but how can you say "white women" are swing voters?

[NJSecularist]

28. They aren't? White women are indeed a swing voter group.

Kerry lost by not swinging enough of them his way.

[Aloha Spirit]

40. That's your argument? Kerry also failed to swing a majority of Republicans, or white men, or people

from the South, or people over 60, or people who made more than $50,ooo a year.
To prove someone is a swing voter, you at least need to know their political ideology, as well as how they've voted in the past.
Kerry did poorly over a lot of groups partly because people were scared of terrorists and "code orange"... lots of reasons. But no, white women are not a category of swing voters.
I challenge you to offer more convincing evidence of that, I'm truly interested now!

Cheers

[Aloha Spirit]

47. I have a poll here that says Obama beats McCain among white women by 8 points....

5 points BETTER than Clinton does in that "swing group".

What polls do you have?

[Awsi Dooger]

67. If that hold up, he's home free

But I would caution it makes zero sense, based on Obama's relationship to McCain in national polling, and the relationship of the white female percentage to the overall percentage.

We fare worse among white women than overall. So if Obama leads McCain by 8 among white women, that means he should lead by at least 10-12 in sum.

When you get it the other way, something like +8 among white women and +4 overall, it's basically a toss poll, no basis in reality.

[Aloha Spirit]

74. "We fare worse among white women than overall" --can you provide a link for this?

I can't reply to your post without a source.
And I really want to reply, because your post was thoughtful and engaging.
And just to be clear, I'm being completely sincere.
Cheers
Tara

[Awsi Dooger]

66. I'll play

White women decide every national election. It's that simple. They are indeed the key swing demographic. The black percentage doesn't vary significantly. Nor white men. Nor Hispanics.

Democrats win when we carry white women, or nearly break even. Failure in that group can't be made up elsewhere, not given current tendencies among other major blocks.

In the '90s Bill Clinton carried that block heavily twice. I forget the exact margin but something like +8 or +10. In 2000 Bush defeated Gore by 1 point among white women, the decisive change from '92 and '96, and just enough to create the disastrous coin flip scenario.

Then 9/11, and very real Security Mom residue. White women tilted toward the GOP in federal races. That block caused the '02 midterms to shift, along with Hispanic men. In '04 Bush won among white women by about 11 points, the decisive shift from '00.

We've started to peel them back, but '06 was disappointing, if not ominous. We led among white women all year, then fell 2 points short according to the national House exit poll. I was stunned. That was the only block I was focusing on. It really didn't matter if white men shifted short term, more in our direction. You know damn well how they'll vote in a presidential matter. But losing white women, not even reaching our '00 level, was bizarre given the avalanche scenario and outcome, in a second term midterm. It signals there is still 9/11 impact out there, or Security Moms who became comfortable aligning with the GOP.

I think NJSecularist is over stating the case when he estimates women would make up 56-57% of the electorate in '08, if Hillary were the nominee. It's well established that women are 54% in general elections and about 52% in midterms. Among the major blocks you don't see seismic shifts in participation. I could listen to 55%, but not higher. I'd prefer 54%, same as always.

IMO, Hillary is more electable but I don't think it's substantial, or can't be argued the other way. Depends on how Obama survives the fall campaign, where I believe he's more vulnerable than Hillary would be. Tonight I clicked past FOX News 5 times, just passing from CNN and MSNBC toward the Golf Channel and back, and literally every time FOX was focusing on Reverend Wright. Get used to it.

We blew most electable when Mark Warner opted out and Edwards was ignored. Jerome Armstrong nailed it on MyDD yesterday, calling Warner, The Map Changer. We would be scrambling for an interesting topic if Warner were the presumptive nominee. He'd be coasting.

Democrats don't handicap well, not the big screen candidates.

[Aloha Spirit]

75. Well, I was trying to point out that "white women" is not a discrete voting block, any more than

"people who wear watches."
There are more enlightening ways to look at the numbers... and I'll be the first to agree that exit polls are not a holy grail, but for starters, there are
-white Democrats
-white Republicans
-single white women
-married white women
-elderly white women
-midwestern white women
et cetera.

It's clear that you're more informed than OzarkDem, and I really appreciated your post, agreed with most of it, found it informing.
The security mom residue is definitely one thing I've been focusing in on, in the crosstabs.
I'm really interested to see how national security voters, particularly women, respond to Hillary.
One thing that troubles me about Clinton is that she doesn't perform as well as Obama among married women...these women I think are *slightly* more representative of a swing demographic than white women in general. I'm absolutely convinced that Obama will do fine among White Democratic women, when it comes to the General election. But I can see how 2000, 2004 exit polls suggest there is a pattern. I just don't think it's as simple as, "Women will vote for a woman." Not in the general.

[Aloha Spirit]

20. On the contrary, basing Hillary's electability on everything but Hillary says that she is a bankrupt

candidate.

[Aloha Spirit]

41. I'll just assume this is the winning argument, since it hasn't been challenged.

[angie_love]

32. Oh so now we're Obamites now? some ppl here are freaking nutty.

[kwenu]

14. Poll all you want. Hillary is NOT the choice in 2008.

[Hippo_Tron]

24. Hillary has shown strength among Democrats, not Independents and Republicans

Democratic primary results don't equal general election results. Just cause she wins Catholic, Female, and Hispanic Democrats doesn't mean she can win Catholic, Female, and Hispanic Independents. She's a very polarizing figure. Democrats love her. The rest of the country, not so much.

[NJSecularist]

26. The most important thing to winning an election is keeping your base.

If you bleed 20% of your Democratic base, then you are not going to win the election, regardless of how many independents you win. And the independent argument is faulty seeing as how McCain has very good appeal to independents also. Our candidate needs to keep the Democratic base.

[Hippo_Tron]

36. And there is no indication that Obama will lose the Democratic base

They like Hillary Clinton better but Obama is virtually identical on all of the issues. The Democratic base votes on issues.

Hillary is will get 47-49% without a problem. It's how she gets to 51 that I'm worried about.

[NJSecularist]

38. Through Latinos and white women?

I am not worried. Black turnout may be down, but they'll still vote overwhelming for Hillary.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. Black turnout won't go down, for Hillary, just as white turnout won't go down for Obama

And Hillary might have a shot at getting to 51 with Hispanics and White women but again she has only shown she can perform well in these groups among Democrats. Obama does well with Independents. He will bring this group overwhelmingly to his side when he gives an incredible acceptance speech at the convention and likely start campaign season 10 points up over McCain. Even if McCain whittles away at his lead, it will still be very hard to beat him.

Hillary won't poll higher than 51 at any point which means that we're going to be relying on turnout in Ohio and Pennsylvania once again and praying that they don't steal the election in Florida.

[anonymous171]

62. Don't count on Florida going blue.

If any dem manages to get enough votes, you know the GOP will find a way to steal it.

[JI7]

27. Kerry also won african american voters and young voters

Hillary is not doing well there.

[angie_love]

29. If shes so fucking electable why is she losing the nomination???

HUH?!

[NJSecularist]

39. Obama's flaws are less apparent in a primary than Hillary's.

The vice versa is true in the general election.

[angie_love]

48. whatever you say, the repugs are leaving her alone right now but if shes the nominee shes going to

get it badly. trust on that.

[Jersey Devil]

31. She may be a great choice but it's too late - she lost

Maybe next time

[Genevieve]

33. She has already lost. nt

[OzarkDem]

35. Women voters hold the power in 2008

as they did in 2004 and 2000. The question is, will Dem leadership and candidates keep driving them away during presidential elections or will they try to rally their base.

It would be nice for a change if they paid attention to their base during a presidential election.

PS - As info, historically when women voters are disappointed in what the Dem party is offering them in the way of candidates, they tend to stay home instead of switching to the GOP candidate.

What's it gonna be Dem leaders? Give us a candidate we can support or tell us to stay home?

[ecdab]

50. And they will support the one candidate in the GE that fights for womens issues - Obama

"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cunt."
John McCain to Cindy McCain, in front of reporters and staffers, after she teased his hair and joked he was thinning on top.

Or women could help put that into the white house?

[OzarkDem]

52. Obama never mentions women's issues, ever

You won't find any mention of it on his web site.

Sorry, but 60% of Dem women voters disagree, he has no record on women's issues.

[ecdab]

54. There choice will be McCain or Obama. And Obama is strong supporter

of a womans right to choose.

If you think 60% of women would be dumb enough to put McCain in the White House I'd have to call you a sexist.

[Aloha Spirit]

58. What??

Okay, what are women's issues to you?
For me, women's issues mean incentives and protections for families, health insurance, abortion rights, equal pay, childcare, early education, schools and afterschool care, and civil rights protection.

All of these issues are addressed in depth at barackobama.com.
Which women's issues do you not think he has addressed?

-Trying to help.

[ecdab]

61. Well - he never talks about "girl power" maybe that was what

they were complaining about?

_ Not trying to help, OD is beyond my abilities.

[Aloha Spirit]

64. Girl power indeed. Obama is all about empowering girls, his education initiatives are spot on.

[ecdab]

68. But he needs to use the exact words "girl power" or it doesn't count.

You're just being silly to not admit that. ;)

[OzarkDem]

73. Show me a link on his web site

You won't find anything, not even a women's issues page.

Womens issues are equal pay for equal work

Secure retirement

Equal access to affordable health care and education

Reproductive Rights

Family leave

Parity for women's health issues


You do understand, don't you, that the largest group of the US population living in poverty are women and children, right?

[rodeodance]

53. WRONG--that is HILLARY!!.

[ecdab]

56. I said in the GE - you know - the election where Hillary will be backing Obama from the sidelines.

;)

[BeyondGeography]

37. It's OK, you can wake up now

Hillary really is the only candidate on either side whose negatives routinely outweigh her positives by 15-20 points and who is thought to be a liar by about 60% of the population.

[otohara]

43. What About All The New Voters

they weren't around in 04, but thanks to Barack Obama hundreds of thousands will come out in droves for him and not for her.

[Milo_Bloom]

57. Are you really comparing primaries to the GE???

and thinking it convinced you of something?


Wanna buy a bridge?

[Aloha Spirit]

59. It's astounding. There are actual polls with actual trends that people can look up on the internet..

and furthermore, I think my above point is still unchallenged, that if the case for Hillary is based on figures that have NOTHING to do with the candidate, then her campaign is dead.

[Aloha Spirit]

60. I'm so frustrated that informed voters keep saying how Obama's not electable based on Exit polls,

when really what these people are thinking is that they feel in their gut that he's not electable. I wish somebody would write an "Election Statistics for Dummies" guidebook.

[earthlover]

63. "She'll need to reach out to them...." Her campaign already has reached out and race baited a lot

They have totally alienated many in the AA community. Maybe it got her some votes in the primaries to remind people out there who don't like blacks that Obama is not white, and raise the point that the only reason that Obama got as far as he has because he was lucky enough to be born black, etc. Problem is, you think the problem can be patched up by "reaching out" to them....once it is in her best interests too. Hate to break it to ya, but if you can't stick up for AAs, and use race as an issue against Obama, you just aren't gonna have much luck "reaching out"....

And you can forget about the new influx of young and independent voters if the nomination is given to the second place candidate in the smoke filled rooms.

Hillary at the top of the ticket would do worse than McGovern or Mondale. In a year we should win by a mandate.

[SoCalDem]

69. I'm sure President Kerry agrees with your assessment

:rofl:

[FlaGranny]

72. This is a poll taken

before many of us got to know Hillary Clinton as we do now OR Barack Obama. It does not apply in 2008.