ARG: Kerry and Bush Remain in Statistical Tie

[Nicholas_J]

July 6, 2004

Kerry and Bush Remain in Statistical Tie

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain in a statistical tie among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 45% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 47% say they would vote for Kerry, 44% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader.

The results presented here are based on 773 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. The interviews were completed July 1 through 3, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

In June, Kerry was leading 53% to 40% among independents. In this survey, Kerry leads Bush 50% to 41% among independents.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

[onehandle]

1. In three weeks Kerry/Edwards will pull away....

....and stay there.

[DebJ]

2. If the stats were reversed, they wouldn't call it a 'tie'

it would be "Bush leads Kerry by 3-4 points"

[wtmusic]

3. If the election is close it will be a very dangerous time

Lots of accusations and suspicions flying around.

I think I'll leave the country for a while.

[King of New Orleans]

4. I'd rather be ahead 47-44

in a "statistical tie" than behind 47-44.

[VOX]

5. Wait until average folks in Midwest/South start hearing Edwards...

If they're holding back a bit because they think Kerry is reticent, or that he comes from a region that they're not fully comfortable with, Edwards will warm their hearts.

It may sound silly and superficial, but it's guaranteed.

[spooky3]

6. Technically correct that it's a "tie" but also could be as wide as 52-41.

The tie or smaller range is more statistically probable. However, the highest likelihood is that Kerry is leading slightly. Can't wait for the Edwards bump!

[expatriot]

7. Naders takes 2 from Kerry, 1 from Bush...

I think that 1% from Bush is the "please give me a third choice because I am not voting for a Democrat and I really don't want to vote for Bush" vote.

[Blue_Roses]

8. give it some time

it is just the first day