What States are "in Play" after the Edwards choice?

[papau]

#1. *Ohio.
#2. Pennsylvania - leaned Bush in April
#3. Michigan
4. *Wisconsin
#5. *West Virginia
#6. *Missouri
#7. *Florida
#8. Arkansas
9. Louisiana
#10. *Minnesota
#11. Iowa
#12. New Hampshire
#13. *Oregon
#14. *Nevada
#15. *Arizona
#16. New Mexico
#17. *Colorado
#18. Maine
19. New Jersey
20. Delaware
21. North Carolina
22. *Tennessee
#23 Virginia - some hope for Dem but not a lot
#24 Washington

* Suggested as in play back in March by Zogby
# suggested as in play by Cook at some point in 04

[Parche]

1. states

My guess is NC, FL, MO, VA and a good chance at TN and SC

[papau]

3. thanks

:-)

[ButterflyBlood]

13. NO chance in SC

it's the Deep South, and * had a 15 point lead in the last poll.

[kwolf68]

2. Hmmm

I think Ohio and FLA will lean our way

Right now I would say Chimp leads PA, Michigan

I like us in Wisco, Minny, West Va, New Hampshire

Love us in Oregon, Nevada, Maine, NJ, Delaware, Washington

No idea in Arkansas, New Mexico, Iowa as those states are TCTC

No Chance in Tennessee, Virginia (Im in Va and have traveled all through the state…As you get away from the Northern Va area you see nothing but Chimp stickers and religious whackery)

[Tweed]

5. A recent poll showed Kerry up by 8% in Michigan n\t

[TheFarseer]

6. I think we're cooked if we lose MI and PA

I just can't tell you how chimpy gained support in those states

[GOPBasher]

10. Not MI.

We're up by 5% - 10% depending on which poll you look at. I think you're right about PA.

[Tweed]

4. My two cents

Delaware is ours. I don't see any New England states, except for New Hampshire possibly, going for Bush

West Virginia seems out of reach. I don't think Edwards magically puts it back into play.

Arizona is out of play and Edwards won't help at all there. Edwards got less then 12% of the Democratic vote in the primary.

Colorado is in play? I would give up on any state in the Mountain West besides New Mexico.

North Carolina is still out of play. If anything, Edwards hurts our chances in North Carolina. He didn't run for senate again in part because he wasn't polling well. Some of this may go away and North Carolinans(?) will decide that it would be nice to have a VP from their state, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Tennessee is a lost cause. Bush is up by 7 or 8 points here. Edwards nearly lost to Clark here and got creamed by Kerry. If the Democrats had a lukewarm impression of Edwards, I don't see why others would be different.

Washington is ours regardless of who is on the ticket.

Overall Edwards won't help that much on a state to state basis. He will help on a national basis adding excitement to the ticket. I don't see how Edwards will hit upon something that people in Tennessee like better then Iowa. I'm not claiming to be an expert, but that's just how I see it.

[Doosh]

15. edwards

didn't "nearly lose to clark" he cam from behind to beat clark, just check surveyusa.

Edwards will help in Missouri, Fla, Iowa, and Louisiana.

[WI_DEM]

7. western states favor Kerry by 21-points!!

I always thought the east was our strong region--that is incredible.

[Bombtrack]

8. Here's my current take on the electoral map

[papau]

9. Thanks

:-)

[Tweed]

11. Illinois is safely Dem

Even before the Jack Ryan fiasco, Kerry was going to take Illinois without a visit. Now with the Republicans still lacking a GOP Senate candidate and all of the scandals that have plauged them in the past. Illinois is more then ever safely Dem.

[Bombtrack]

12. It isn't any safer than the light red states I have for the GOP

The two different shades of blue are both overlapped by the "safe" virticle label if you'd notice that. While the yellow and yellowish green and orange are both overlapped by the "battleground" label. Clearly indicating Illinois is not part of the battleground

[Doosh]

14. NJ is safely Dem

.