You all realize 2 way polls are nonsense right now, right?

[Milo_Bloom]

This is a repost of something within a thread, but this sickness seems to be pretty wide right now...

Dear Idiots who put stock in the (Obama v McCain, Clinton v McCain) polls,

During every primary season, dating back... well... FOREVER... when any party has a presumtive nominee and the other party still has 2 candidates left, the losing candidates voters CLAIM they are going to vote for the opposing party candidate OVER the direct competitor, because they are trying to PROVE their candidate would be better in the election.

Thus, the second place candidate ALWAYS looks like a better option this far out when put into 2 way polling. Check Gore/Bradley numbers, Kerry/Edwards numbers, Bush/McCain numbers... they ALL showed exactly this above.

Right now there is essentially a 3 way race. McCain has his solid 40->45% The Democratic Candidate has a solid 40%... then there is 15->20% of people who rabidly support either Obama or Clinton and depending upon who is "winning" a certain % of those people will say they will vote for McCain over the other candidate... not because they WILL, but because they want to make a point. The one who fares worse off is ALWAYS THE LOSING CANDIDATE. When Gore was beating Bradley, Bradley polled better in a GE setting. When Bush was beating McCain McCain polled better... (visa versa when McCain was beating bush for a short time, Bush polled better). When Kerry was ahead of Edwards, EDWARDS polled better.

It happens every freaking time, but is USUALLY cut short because the candidate with no more path to the nomination drops out or suspends campaigning, etc. However, b/c this is going on longer than usual as a 2 person race, we are seeing it reported more and more.

Even worse, this time we have republicans who have been told to feign support for one of the candidates, just to make the race last longer.


The only one you can really get an "idea" from is the "generic democrat" against McCain.


Once you insert a name, you are trying to turn a 3 way race into a 2 way race and it is completely BUNK.