AP Poll: Kerry Solidifies Base (gains in South, Nader support drops)

[wyldwolf]

WASHINGTON - Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) has solidified his base, gained some ground in the South and among lower income voters and seen independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites)'s support drop, according to an Associated Press poll. :)


Still, Kerry is slightly behind President Bush :( in the AP-Ipsos poll that found voters increasingly confident about the economy just as Kerry picked his running mate.


The addition of Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) to the ticket appears to have helped Kerry in some ways the four-term Massachusetts senator had hoped for when he selected the North Carolina populist over more seasoned politicians.


"I'm more impressed with Kerry now that he chose Edwards," said Republican voter Robin Smith, 45, a teacher from Summerville, S.C. "I look at Kerry and I don't trust him, but he's got Edwards, who's more middle-of-the-road, a strong speaker, more able to reach the common man."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040709/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_ap_poll&cid=694&ncid=716

[kerryin2004]

1. It also shows Bush up...

Can someone explain after the last 4 years how a man that lost by 500,000 votes could be up in a poll? I cant believe any of these polls with all the crap that Bush has done, and I believe that these "polls" are skewed to keep the elections interesting.. How can Nader, who cant even get the signatures to get on a ballot be polling 3%? Hell, I have seen polls that say he is polling 8%! Let's just get on with the election already please..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. First Of All

The pollsters are asking people who they intend to vite for?


Obviously, if Nader isn't on the ballot in alot of states his reaching 3% or 8% becomes extremely problematic...


What's more peculiar is Kerry- Edwards were up by eight in a poll concluded on July 6 by NBC and down by four in a poll by AP concluded on July 7... A swing of twelve points in a single day...


Highy unlikely...


What I see is some pretty sloppy social science...

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[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. The polls aren't taking into account

the people who have never voted before but who are registering now. They see the threat to our nation and are doing something about it.

[dusty64]

5. Their headline

buried any good news for Kerry. Their blatant bias is showing again, you have to dig deep to read anything negative about our "glorious leader".

[rasputin1952]

6. Most of these polls are skewed...

and it is far enough away from the election to make little difference anyway.

We will be polled out of existance by the time the election hits...:)

I, personally find any of them hard to believe, with a few exceptions, and those are still a little dubious. I am here in NE, and it has been weeks since I heard anyone defending bush and his minions. Not too long ago, people were jumpimng through hoops defending everything the cabal had done; now, I am hard pressed to find ANYONE standing up for this gaggle of goons. If silence is the support bush gets in Nebraska, he is in some REALLY deep trouble.

When the Heartland is non-supportive of these clods, I find it difficult to believe that some 47% of the nation thinks this idiot is worth another 4 years of disaster in the WH. I am willing to bet, the Senate will change, and there is a good chance we might even get the Houose back....:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I'm Not Tooting My Own Horn

but I have done post grad work in Political Science and find it hard to believe that polls taken one day apart can be as far apart as the NBC poll and the AP poll; especially when there was no major event to sway opinion either way...


I also think people make a mistake if they substitute anecdotal evidence for hard social science research..


For instance , all my friends are for Kerry. I could wrongly infer from that Central Florida is Kerry country...

or

Most of my clients are for Bush so I could wrongly infer from that Central Florida is Bush country...

[tedoll78]

8. Bingo!

I've also studied PolySci in college, and the disparity between these polling results tells me that something's up..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Polling Is Both Art And Science...

NT

[fujiyama]

10. AP polls

have been one of the friendlier polls for Bush. Even their newswires seem to have some bias in them.

It's sad when AP news wire feeds sound like something out of FOX News, but that's how it is.

Let's face it, it's an uphill battle, especially with such a whoring media. Neither Kerry nor Edwards should expect any friendly treatment from all these ass holes.