Good breakdown on the SUSA poll for VA today. Democracy for Virginia.

[madfloridian]

There is a place to leave comments as well. Maura from VA, a Dean leader, has done a good job on this. Check it out.

http://www.democracyforvirginia.com/

[salonghorn70]

1. That Was Interesting

Any reasoning for why Bush was doing so well with Hispanics?

[madfloridian]

2. I found this quote from her breakdown on it.

SNIP..."According to the raw data, there were only 27 Hispanic likely voters in this survey, so hopefully this is too small a sample size to be indicative of a real dead heat between Bush and Kerry among Latino voters. Certainly, though, it could be wise to take this as a sign that much more outreach among Latino voters is needed....."

Not a large number, but bears watching.

[King of New Orleans]

3. the sample size was 27

people that is. Not especially reliable. Hispanics don't make up much of the vote in VA anyway.

The regional split were interesting too, though they could be quite iffy due to sample size too. Of course, the boundaries of the regions weren't defined either so that makes it hard to analyze.

Anyway the 54-42 lead in NVA is about what Kerry needs to win Virginia. The 47-45 lead by Bush in Central VA is actually better than Kerry would need. the 56-41 Bush lead in SE VA looks very suspect because the Tidewater was basically 50-50 last election and Kerry has to win the Tidewater area, though not by the margin he needs to win NVA by.

The last region--Shenandoah which Bush leads 55-38 sounds about right, assuming that that includes Roanoke and everything west as well as the Shenandoah. The Shenandoah is the most Repug area in VA. Roanoke-Blacksburg should be won by Kerry and the West mountains are a swing area that Kerry wants to split.