What swing states will Kerry/Edwards really challenge for?

[uconnyc]

I've heard rumors that despite Edwards selection as VP, Kerry is not too serious about competing in the South - Arkansas, Tenn., Kentucky, Georgia and Louisiana.

Are there ads running there or any scheduled appearances?

[Padraig18]

1. All of them.

I have no doubt we're going to try for a landslide victory, rather than a 'squeaker'...

[King of New Orleans]

2. He'll compete in at least part of the south.

I don't know about Kentucky, Tennessee, or Georgia but he's put time and effort into Arkansas and Louisiana. However, depending on resources he might now rate Virginia and North Carolina ahead of those two.

[WI_DEM]

3. Well there are at least three states in the south/border states

which were rewarded to Bush last time that the Kerry/Edwars ticket is going to go all out for: North Carolina (15 electoral votes) West Virginia (5 electoral votes) and Flordia (27? electoral votes). Of course Florida was ours last time, but stolen. If we win all three and it is possible, Kerry is elected. Even if we take one it is a huge accomplishment. I would say Kerry's best shot is in Florida followed by NC and then WVA. I also think Kerry will compete in Arkansas and maybe Louisiana.

[Padraig18]

5. My brotherer in NOLA says LA is winnable, as is AR.

The economies of both states have been hit hard under Bush, and Kerry is VERY well-liked in Orleans Parish. His selection of Edwards as VP has done much to reassure disaffected, moderate Republicans and independents in both states, he reports.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I've seen ads here in Arkansas

Don't know about any appearances, but I can tell any Kerry folks lurking here that if northwest Arkansas has people who are disgusted with Bush and willing to vote Kerry, the whole state is Kerry's to win.

[lovedems]

14. Could the Big Dog have an impact in Arkansas?

Is he well loved from his home state? I know he will hit some southern states hard for Kerry. Will he be effective there? Think if Clark and Clinton appeared together in Arkansas! Would that have a big impact? 2 great southern democrats! If they are well loved, Arkansas could be a victory!

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

21. Yes

And I've heard some say that Edwards reminds them of Clinton-and they go on to say what a great President Clinton was. Sure, there are some Clinton-haters here, but there are many who compare Clinton's tenure with Bush, and look back on Clinton's term with nostalgia. With Clinton's library opening in Little Rock this fall, the Big Dog will be in the news, and I'm sure he'll stump for Kerry/Edwards.

[lovedems]

22. You probably thought that was a silly question but we have a friend who

grew up in Arkansas and he said stories were rampant about Clinton smuggling drugs, killing people, etc. I didn't know if the fine people of Arkansas believed those rumors or not.

Glad to know the people from his home state still like Clinton. Thanks! I think he can make a big difference in some southern states, Arkansas being one of them!

[Pepperbelly]

29. BC is Arkansas Solid Gold except for the Northwest Quadrant of ...

the state. It is traditionally THICK with gops in that part of the state although that is beginning to change a bit as well.

We shall see what happens.

[TheDebbieDee]

36. The stories about the Clintons' having folks murdered............

and making money hand over fist by selling drugs was malicious repuke spin, a product of that vast right-wing conspiracy that Hillary complained about.

Another one of the tales spun about Clinton was that he had fathered a lovechild with a black woman in Arkansas. I'm sure McCain experienced deja vu when the Bush gang used this same smear regarding his adopted, bi-racial daughter.

[salonghorn70]

25. Clinton's Role

I would send him down to Arkansas and just let him camp out there. I think that he is still well-respected.

[Lex]

20. I've seen LOTS of Kerry/Edwards ads here in NC

right from the start, just after the announcement of Edwards.

[HFishbine]

6. Well

The dynamic duo is in NC today, and I had four people mention in casual conversation yesterday (in my city 90 miles from the event) that they are going to the rally. Anecdotal yes, but I think for the first time since Jimmy Carter, NC has a real chance of going for the dems.

[wyethwire]

7. KE is running ads in 21 states

plus a nationwide cable buy

[TexasSissy]

12. We're not seeing Kerry ads much here in Dallas, Texas.

My sister in Louisiana hasn't seen hardly any Kerry ads. But she has seen lots of Bush ads.

Sounds like Bush may be running lots of national ads, while Kerry is focusing on state ads. Probably because Bush has more $$$$.

[Massacure]

8. I think Kerry will try and take Arkansaw

I'm sure Clinton might give him a boost if Kerry asks for it.

[calico1]

9. I would say

NC, VA, AR and LA. AR and LA are in Bush's column but not by much last time I checked so in addition to NC and VA they could be in play. I don't think they need to spend too much time in AL, GA. Those are heavy REP STates. Also though not a Southern state I think CO is a possibility. We'll see. I agree that if possible they should visit every state though.

[AP]

10. Clearly, they think they have a chance in NC, FL, NM and OH, since that's

where they're going first.

[patricia92243]

11. Edwards from NC and we have Democrat Governor, so I hope we'll be blue

[Literate Tar Heel]

13. this weekend

they're appearing at N.C. State University today at 4:30 (Edwards' undergrad alma mater), and according to the Raleigh News & Observer, organizers are expecting 5,000 to 10,000 people ... of course from what I can tell by looking online, the story was either on page 16A or 6B ... I'm sure Bush was all over the front page when he came on Wednesday, but Raleigh isn't the most liberal place on the planet either ... those 5,000 to 10,000 are probably mostly coming from neighboring Durham and Chapel Hill

[Vox_Reason]

15. I'll be there from Raleigh

After lurking since '01, this is my first DU post.

My wife and I are going to the Kerry/Edwards rally here in Raleigh, NC at 4:30 PM today. It's our 2nd rally--we saw Gore and Lieberman in New Orleans in October 2000.

Can't wait to gather with other proud Tarheels and cheer our hometown boy John Edwards, in hopes of helping to build nationwide excitement about the possibility of change in America that Kerry and Edwards represent. I'm very happy to have Edwards at least on the ticket, and I will cheer both Kerry and Edwards very loudly here in Raleigh in a couple of hours when they arrive.

Yes, Literate Tar Heel, the coverage in the News and Observer today was shameful; a brief mention of the rally in a box on the front page, and then two buried articles, one of which seemed to be more about security/police coverage than anything.

Surprisingly, the paper's coverage of Bush*'s $25,000 per person lunch fundraiser earlier this week was lavish and fawning, though it did mention Cheney-admiring drive-by middle-digit profferers to roadside protesters.

"Liberal media" my arse.

I'm sure the N&O's post-rally reporting tomorrow will be something like "Encouraged by local extreme-right radio, angry people with missing teeth and questionable communication skills, wearing starched brown shirts and shiny boots, enthusiastically waved obscene gestures and signs at the Kerry/Edwards rally attendees from behind police barricades."

Watch--the place will be mobbed with enthusiastic Kerry/Edwards folks today, and the Raleigh N&O will respond with some boilerplate "It is against the policy of the N&O to estimate crowd size..." to avoid having to print "The crowd was far larger than the anticipated size."

Maybe that's in the same class of rationale the N&O has used to avoid having to print "The Bush administration is a lying, dangerous fraud, and most of our dear readers are the victims."

[PopSixSquish]

16. Welcome to DU Vox_Reason

"Encouraged by local extreme-right radio, angry people with missing teeth and questionable communication skills, wearing starched brown shirts and shiny boots, enthusiastically waved obscene gestures and signs at the Kerry/Edwards rally attendees from behind police barricades."


That made me laugh out loud. You have definately have the Southern way of words. :hi:

[Lex]

17. Welcome to DU, Vox!

I hope there's a good turnout today in Raleigh--apparently an enormous number of Dem volunteers turned out last night to help with today's rally. So much so that it turned into its own rally of sorts!

From wral's story:

Hundreds came to the N.C. Democratic Party headquarters Friday night to volunteer for Saturday's event.

The volunteer briefing started inside but so many people showed up, they moved the meeting outside. It soon became a celebration of its own."

http://www.wral.com/news/3515133/detail.html

[Padraig18]

18. Welcome to DU, Vox_Reason!

Good first post!

:hi:

[AP]

19. One night I posted 4 or 5 mildly positive messages on N&O dicussion board

about Edwards.

By 9am they had deleted all of them.

[Vox_Reason]

30. Wow... WOW.... WOW!!!!!

Folks, I am just now back from this afternoon's Kerry/Edwards rally on the campus of NC State University in Raleigh, North Carolina.

I have never been prouder to be a Tarheel progressive than I am right now.

This rally was a SMASHING success. The paper this morning said 5 to 10,000 were expected--but 25,000 people showed up!!

TWO AND A HALF TIMES THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATE!! IN 100 DEGREE HEAT!!!

The crowd was loud, enthusiastic, diverse, and positive. The good vibes were simply overflowing. Speakers were repeatedly interrupted by supportive chants and cheering. Edwards' megawatt smile along with the good feelings among "the four principals" were clearly visible from my position roughly 40 yards from the stage.

The warmup speakers were also great, particularly an hispanic elected official from the town of Carrboro, a suburb of "The Paris of the South" and the home of my beloved alma mater, UNC-Chapel Hill.

But what COMPLETELY blew me away was how well Kerry performed. Of course Edwards was phenomenal--completely off-the-charts great--but Kerry was shockingly good! He was passionate, energetic, hit all the right notes, and was repeatedly interrupted by cheering and chants before he could finish sentences. He couldn't stop smiling, and both candidates stayed to shake hands long after the end of the event. People didn't want to leave!

I'm so buzzed from the energy of this phenomenal rally!! I'm so proud of my fellow Tarheels who came out and showed the whole country what North Carolina values really mean--they're reflected in the values of the Kerry/Edwards campaign!

I could make 1000 calls and knock on 1000 doors right now. This rally was a fantastic success, and I hope many of you get a chance to read this post and catch a "contact rush" from it. BELIEVE THE HYPE, folks!!

Let's all redouble our efforts and our resolve to do whatever's necessary to advocate for what we know is right. It's NEVER been more important than it is right now, folks. Let's grab that brass ring and make tomorrow better for ALL Americans!!!!

THANK YOU, JOHN KERRY and JOHN EDWARDS!!! THANK YOU, NC DEMOCRATIC PARTY!!!! And special thanks to the not-the-expected-200, but the 600 VOLUNTEERS that turned out!!! GET FIRED UP, progressives across America!! We're going to win this thing, and win it BIG!

And thanks to all of you for reading this newbie's long, only-2nd post. I hope it was worthwhile. I'm normally not a caps-and-exclamations poster--I'm just seriously amped up at the moment, and I hope you will be too.

[Cuban_Liberal]

31. Welcome to DU, Vox_Reason!

It sounds like a phenomenal rally!

:D

[Vox_Reason]

32. A great rally indeed today in Raleigh!

Cuban_Liberal, it was a truly great experience, and I wish all DU'ers could have been there. This place would be exploding with energy and good vibes. It was something I'll happily remember for a VERY long time to come.

I encourage all of you to take the time to go to a nearby campaign event. You will remember what this is all about, and why it's so important!

[Vox_Reason]

33. Early story from News and Observer on today's rally

Local newspaper story on today's Kerry/Edwards rally in Raleigh, NC:

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/politicians/edwards/eyeonedwards/series/story/1416807p-7540776c.html

[quaoar]

34. Crowd estimates

I'm a newspaper editor in real life.
I can sympathize with not wanting to estimate crowds. The usual practice is get an "official" estimate from the police. That usually meant a reporter walking up to a cop at the event and asking him. The cop would then glance at the crowd and say, "Oh, about 5,000." Not exactly scientific or even close to accurate.

And then, of course, the side holding the rally is mad because you underestimated the crowd and their opponents are pissed because you inflated the numbers.

[Literate Tar Heel]

35. both Edwards and Kerry

used the number 25,000 ... so I'd assume at least 20,000, giving benefit of the doubt for exaggeration ... still far above the 5000-10,000 that was "expected"

[faithnotgreed]

38. so very glad you posted. thrilled all the way around about your report!

[Pepperbelly]

23. he's running LOTS of ads in Arkansas and I think Kerry will win it. nt

[Capn Sunshine]

24. OHIO. Everybody says OHIO.

Evryone is saying if * loses Ohio, he's toast. Barring a landslide, which is what SHOULD happen given the actualities of the * administration. But they keep saying it will be close.

[Cuban_Liberal]

26. VA, NC, LA, AR, AZ, NV, CO,, PA, OH, WV & FL.

I think we can win them all, with just a little luck. :)

[UrbScotty]

27. What abot MI, WI, MN, WA, OR, and IA? (nt)

[Cuban_Liberal]

28. Yes, of course!

Actually, I sorta assumed that they would go our way, but you're right!

:D

[Nicholas_J]

37. Gonna be a tough haul

Bush average lead in the south as a whole is 17 percentage points. There may be a few states, but it will be difficult fo Kerry. Edwards to even take North Carolina. Virginia, which might have been possible for Kerry has just moved more firmly into Bush territory. There is only one southe4rn state that Kerry has a decent lean in, and that is Florida, and that is because of the South of the State, which is about as un-Southern an areas as possible. Kerry is ahead in Arkansas. The other states are going to be nearly impissible for Kerry to win. National Polls are holding firm for Kerry, and it sems the electoral college is, which in the end, is really what counts. The map is covered with red, but fortunately, those areas are small in population and electoral votes.