Electoral Question

[mourningdove92]

I am pretty much a political newbie, I mean, I have always voted (DEM), but have never been terribly active and primarily just watched the primaries. This time is different, because Buschco has made me obsessed with getting rid of him.

So here is my question. If I remember correctly, and I may be wrong, but didn't Smirk "win" by only 2 electoral votes?
If that is the case, it seems that the Kerry/Edwards campaign needs to hold on to all the states won by Gore and on really needs to add one state that went Repug last time.

am I full of it?

[calico1]

1. If there hadn't been cheating in the last election

Florida would have rightfully been awarded to Gore and he would be President.

[bookman]

2. New State Numbers

Due to the census state electoral numbers are slightly different.

[UrbScotty]

3. Well, yeah, 271-267. BUT...

Due to reapportionment based on the 2000 census, the states Gore won will be worth only 260 electoral votes.

If Kerry holds on to all the Gore states, he can win with one Bush state that has AT LEAST 10 electoral votes:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
Ohio
Virginia

[AndyTiedye]

7. We Need to Either Stop Diebold or Get a Helluva Lot of Votes Elsewhere

the Diebold Republican Electing (DRE) machinez will paint Maryland red,
unless we can prevent them from being used. This is a state we
have always assumed we would win.

If that happens we will have to make up those electoral votes somewhere.

Diebold is also an issue in Ohio, where the CEO of the company has
committed to "deliver the electoral votes of Ohio to Bush".
Fortunately, Diebold does not control that much of the vote in Ohio,
so if Kerry has a big enough lead he can still take the state.

In Florida, where they stole the Presidency from us in 2000, they
have new touchscreen machinez in all the highest-population (read
Democratic) areas, accounting for almost half of the voters,
thousands of Democrats STILL disenfranchised from the 2000 voter purge,
and we can expect the usual police intimidation of black voters,
and some lower-profile attempt to purge "felons" from the rolls,
probably at the county level. If the election comes down to Florida
again, we lose.

Arizona and Missouri seem like difficult states for Democrats, but
they at least appear to still use real ballots, so if we can get
the most votes in those states we can actually win them.

Virginia is another difficult state, made more so by the fact that
they have DRE machines in some major cities.


It will be an uphill battle.

[Racenut20]

4. He needs the 2000 States

Plus a Missouri, or Ohio, Or Florida, or WestVa/NewHampshire combination.

[NewJerseyDem]

5. It depends on the state

I believe Bush, under the new electoral votes, has 278 electoral votes to Gore's 260 electoral votes, in the 2000 election. So, Kerry needs to pick up 10 electoral votes to win.

[unblock]

6. a census is taken once every 10 years

in years ending in zero (2000 being the most recent).

the grand total of 435 congressional seats are allocated proportionally to the states based on population, with the exception that each state gets at least one congressman. if a state's number of congressmen changes, or if the state's population shifts within the state, it may redistrict itself to change the boundaries of each congressional district. there is very often considerable political jockeying about in this process.

each state always gets 2 senators.

for presidential elections, each state's electoral votes is equal to the number of congressmen plus the number of senators.

therefore, the number of each state's electoral votes can shift every 10 years. in the present case, many states have changed slightly based on the 2000 census. the changes will have an effect on the 2004 election.

the changes reflect the continuing migration into the south and other 'red' (bush) states. the effect is that, while these states are now a bit less 'red' than they used to be, and thus slightly harder for bush to win, they are nevertheless worth more electoral votes than in 2000.

so if bush wins exactly the same set of states in 2004 as he did in 2000 (counting florida in the bush column for this purpose), then he will win by a larger maring than in 2000 based on the net increase in electoral votes for these states.