From the Guardian
Unlimited (UK)
Dated Sunday July 11
Bush takes aim at "dream team"
'Edwards effect' could put Democrats 15 points ahead
By Paul Harris in New York
Republican strategists expect George Bush to be trailing in the polls by at least 15 per cent by next month following the announcement of John Edwards as running mate of Democrat challenger John Kerry. The Democrats are also expected to win a large polls 'bounce' from their Boston convention at the end of July.
Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, last week sent an internal memo seen by The Observer to campaign advisers, warning: 'John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favour by early August.'
There is widespread Republican concern that the young, charismatic Edwards, with his Clintonesque southern twang, has revitalised a Kerry campaign that Bush supporters had derided as wooden and out of touch. But the Republicans expect to hack away Kerry's projected lead with their own polls bounce after their convention in New York at the end of August.
One poll put Kerry up by 9 per cent against Bush, but others still have the candidates neck and neck, and an Associated Press poll released on Friday had Bush in the lead. 'This is not a big bounce electorate. We are a nation that is split down the middle, polarised and hardened,' said pollster John Zogby, chairman of Zogby International.
This presents a good, sober reflection on recent polls.