It seems unlikely that any Gore voters would switch to Bush

[skjpm]

I mean, if you liked Gore, what about Bush would draw you to voting for him? Whatever small amount of Gore-to-Bush voters there might be will easily be compensated by Bush-to-Kerry voters. So, I just don't see how we can get fewer votes this election. And since we are making some strides in ensuring votes get counted, it seems that we'll have enough to win.

[Poiuyt]

1. I don't see it either

but I can't help thinking of Dennis Miller saying that 9/11 changed everything. I don't know who he voted for in 2000, but I'm guessing that there are other people who think that only Bush can save us from terrorist. Could 9/11 scare people so much that they would change from Democrat to Republican?

[amber dog democrat]

3. I would have to be sent to a Vote For Bush ReEducation Camp

and promoised huge ammounts of costume jewelry or something first.

Honestly I do not see Bush getting ANY Gore supporters. Tha'td be too much like the Stockholm Sysdrone. given that the 2000 election was stolen.

[bklyncowgirl]

6. Bush war on terrorism

I agree. Alot could happen between now and election day. There may well be Gore voters who will switch sides because of Bush's "War on Terrorism" feeling that the Democrats will not defend our country.

Right now Bush's war ain't looking too good but let's say the new Iraqi government starts cracking insurgent heads and making troublemakers disappear (Negroponte could give them lots of helpful hints from his days in Honduras) and the Pakistanis deliver Osama on a silver platter.

We will all natter on about how this is all an illusion, hypocritical, etc. but in the end it won't matter to many apolitical individuals who will not take the trouble to see through the lies. Even some Gore voters will vote for Bush.

[Ohio Dem]

2. Yeah, I've never met anybody that voted for Gore that was gonna vote for

Bush this time. I have, however, met quite a few people that voted for Bush that say they won't do that again. I don't know if that makes them Kerry voters or nonvoters. Either works.

Counting the votes this time is the key.

[Sperk]

4. About as likely as inviting your mugger in for dinner!

n/t

[skjpm]

5. Plus, I really like Kerry/Edwards

I was not a big fan of Kerry before, but I like Edwards a whole lot, and even Kerry seems more likable now. I just can't see how anyone could choose Bush/Cheney over them.

[StopThief]

7. There is a certain segment. . .

of the population that will vote for whomever is in office if they are personally doing fine. Those people would have voted for Gore in 2000 and will vote for Bush in 2004. It's the "Don't rock the boat" vote.

[osaMABUSh]

8. If it is that simple then Kerry will win - end of story

Based on your premise, we start out in a tie and can't lose because almost no one is going to jump to Bush. And more Bush voters in '00 will go with Kerry.

[Frodo]

9. The problem is - there are lots of Gore voters who didn't "like Gore"

They voted for him for some other reason. Perhaps they were voting AGAINST Bush. Some of those reasons have changed. For instance, he's no longer the constitutionally weak Governor from Texas, he's the incumbent pResident.

Some (small) number of voters may have like Gore more than they like Kerry. Gore was a successful VP for eight years. That's a different resume than junior Senator from MA.

Add to this the IMPORTANT fact that th electorate changes every foour years. There will be a few million people voting for the first time and a few million who have died. Plus all of the millions who sometimes vote and sometimes don't. Does Kerry wake more people up than Gore? Does Bush have more/less "pull" getting conservatives out to vote?


It's a mistake to look at the election as "Kerry automatically wins all the votes Gore got" or "Kerry automatically gets all the states Gore got and only needs to pick up one or two to win the election".

There are at least six or seven states that Gore won the Kerry needs to pay attention to.

[Delarage]

10. My own freaking sister

who lives in Florida (of all places) voted for Gore but now says she'll vote for Bush. She has completely bought into all of the RW bullshit, such as:

Kerry is a flip-flopper
Bush is a brave warrior leader.
Iraq should have been attacked/occupied regardless of WMD's
Bush never lied.
Bush never makes mistakes.
Liberals are ruining society.
Gays run Hollywood and Public Education
Kerry's wounds in Viet Nam were "boo-boos"

I cannot believe we came from the same parents. Even our mom, a lifelong Republican, has not voted for a Republican president since Reagan. This same sister threatened to vote for Nader last time.

Ick.

[Beetwasher]

11. And There Are A Lot of PO'd Bush Voters

who will no longer be voting for him...

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. You are assuming that every Gore voter will vote this time

Some of them may have been turned off by politics in the last four years and may stay home.