Red states that are currently in play

[dolstein]

New Hampshire
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Louisiana
Arkansas
Missouri
Ohio
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada


Am I missing any? Does anybody know which of these states Kerry is currently running ads in?

[Frodo]

1. How are you defining "in play"?

And which states do we have to worry about?

Edit - Ah, sorry. I found your other post.

[dolstein]

3. By "in play" I mean . . .

states that are being actively contested by both campaigns. I'm not sure that the Kerry campaign is still running ads in Arkansas and Louisiana, although I believe Edwards may be traveling to these states later in the week, so I have kept them on the list.

[Frodo]

4. See my "blue states" reply.

NC/VA are likely not "in play". Money/time spent there is just for show (like any dollars Bush spends in CA are to make it look like he's got his own states nailed down).

[King of New Orleans]

8. I disagree about NC/VA

NC wasn't even close in 2000, but that may have been in part the Liddy Dole effect and no effort put in by the Gore campaign. Historically, it's been a much narrower partisan state and without a star at the top of the Repug ticket and of course with a star in the VP slot on the Dem ticket it's got a shot (plus polling in NC has been pretty narrow).

As for VA, it's all about how ticked NVA is at Bush's incompetent handling of the Federal government. If Kerry can swing NVA to a 10-12 point advantage, he can win VA.

[Frodo]

12. We can disagree on that... but my point is

NC is not going to be THE state the puts Kerry over the top. If we win NC and/or VA then we will have already won the battleground states and it's just "gravy".

BTW - NC is not as even as you seem to think it is. Fist of all, Liddy Dole wasn't ON the ticket in 2000.

Yes, Dole only won NC by 4-5% in '96, but Clinton won nationally by 8-9%. That makes NC 13% more Republican than the nation as a whole. Edwards does not give us a 14% bump in NC. In fact, the last three presidential elections have seen the state move further and further away from us.

[RichV]

23. Dole didn't run in '96...

Jesse Helms was still in that seat at the time.

[spooky3]

27. Did he mean her hubby, Bob Dole? (vs. Clinton)

[RichV]

35. Oh! That makes sense.

Guess the NC link to Mrs. Dole made her my first thought. Thanks for the note. That makes sense now.

[Frodo]

40. Latest polling shows evidence for my theory.

The latest CNN?Gallup poll shows Kerry/Edwards down by 15% in NC.

This is AFTER the bounce from the Edwards announcement (July 9-11), though not as it has continued the last couple days.

[Carolinian]

46. More Dems than Repubs in NC....Just get out the Vote.

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

2. Kerry/Edwards

are running their fair shair of adds in Missouri. Mostly positive ones too, that don't even mention Bush. I think this is smart. Leave the Bush-bashing to Moveon.org and Kerry comes away with his hands clean looking like the bigger man.

EDIT: not that he isn't the bigger man anyway

[JI7]

5. Tennessee ?

i think Kerry's vietnam war service along with Edwards southern background could play well there. although it will still be tough. with limited resources i would focus on the ones you mentioned unless polls show a close race in tennessee.

[dolstein]

7. I don't think Kerry has run ads in Tennessee

I could be wrong. I don't know if Edwards is scheduled to make any trips there.

[Claire Beth]

37. I'm in TN.....

and I have seen several Kerry ads on TV. Last time I looked TN was still up for grabs at 50-50. There are a lot of people who are not happy with Bush and have said they will NOT vote for him this time.
:kick:

[AlecBGreen]

34. look @ that picture of them

I just dont understand how someone would vote W/DICKHEAD over KERRY/EDWARDS :crazy:

[West Coast Democrat]

42. Yes! See my post below

Zogby shows them tied in Tennessee.

[SayitAintSo]

6. Some have mentioned SC... but I seriously doubt it ...cold day in hell..

And SC is built over hell ... some would say :)

[wurzel]

9. New Hampshire and Arizona I'd have thought of as non-starters.

[Redneck Socialist]

10. NH is definitely in play

The last poll I saw had Kerry up two percent. 47% - 45%

[wurzel]

13. That is very very encouraging. I'd have said no chance.

[RichV]

24. In 2000

Gore didn't lose NH by much. Haven't looked up the figures, but it wasn't a resounding Bush victory.

[Gore1FL]

36. NH was in the margins for sure

The difference was less than the Green totals.

[AspenRose]

15. Don't forget about the republicans cheating in Jeanne Shaheen's

election v. Sununu. That controversy about jamming the phone lines....to stop rides to the polls.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=114613

There is probably more Dem support in NH than people realize.

**LIVE FREE OR DIE**

[bobbieinok]

19. didn't NH go W because of fairly large Nader vote (Dartmouth)??

[Redneck Socialist]

21. 22,000 some odd votes for Nader

Gore only lost by 7,000.

[AspenRose]

20. Here's what the American Research Group poll says re: NH

Bush and Kerry Tied Among Likely Voters in New Hampshire

George W. Bush and John Kerry are tied among likely voters in New Hampshire according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 46% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Bush is at 47% and Kerry is at 47%.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% are registered as Republicans, 29% are registered as Democrats, and 36% are undeclared voters (independents). The interviews were conducted June 7 through 9, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

www.americanresearchgroup.com/nh

[saracat]

11. Clinton carried AZ twice.Gore was close enough for a recount

if asked for.It is a real horse race and Kerry ops are everywhere.Kerry supporters are everywhere. I predict Kerry will carry AZ.We sent an undercover op to a Rep.Campaign training and they also think Kerry could carry Az.It's more than in play!

[wurzel]

14. I was thinking of McCain. He's a "Bush Republican"

[fujiyama]

16. No

Clinton carried it only once and that too it was by a pretty narrow margin (He beat Dole there in '96 by around 2 pts. He lost it to HW Bush by around that same margin).

[saracat]

28. Was it once? You are probably right, but

it is true we could have had a recount in 2000, and we are definately close now. For the first time we outregistered the Repugs by a considerable margin.8000 in one months and that with being up against Reggie! and for the first time the repugs have lost registration numbers.I tell you Az will go blue.

[fujiyama]

30. Yeah I just checked the numbers

on www.uselectionatlas.org

another decent site is www.presidentelect.org

If democrats out registered republicans that's good news. If Kerry wins AZ I don't see how Bush can win. It would be great to have those 10 electoral votes in the democratic column. The democrats shouldn't give it up considering the state has a democratic governor.

BTW is governor Napalitano popular? I heard she won it pretty close.

[saracat]

33. Very Popular

In fact, the repugs were the ones that put her over the top! and she has done a masterful job of standing up to the opposition contolled Legislature and the Senate. She is something new for Az. a governor with a brain. The last one was a potted plant and the two previous except for the appointed Rose Mofford were criminals.And not good ones.Both got caught.But we've got to get Janet help in The fall, just to make live easier.Az is going Blue.We have a really large group of Repugs for Kerry .They used to be Repugs for Janet.
The Republican Party is very divisive in Az.The few who vote in the primary are nominating wingnuts and the moderates won't vote for them.That is what happened with the Gov.Race.Matt Salmon was a wingnut!

[Hippo_Tron]

26. Good News, Nader isn't on the ballot in AZ

I like our chances.

[Pepperbelly]

17. he's running the hell out of them in Arkansas. nt

[Literate Tar Heel]

18. I live in N.C.

and I've seen a lot of Kerry/Edwards ads since Kerry's VP pick ("one is a Vietnam veteran ... the other is the son of a mill worker ...") and today on CNN saw a MoveOn.org ad making Bush look pretty silly, but don't know if that was national or if certain states were picked (I was on the computer and not paying a whole lot of attention, so it could have been shown as part of the program, but I don't think so)

Bush has been running the one about Kerry being absent all the time but having the time to vote against the Laci Peterson law

[Crazy8s]

22. Plenty of Positive Kerry Ads in FL

And playing in the Tampa Bay area much more frequently than the Bush* 'Laci Peterson' ad (what an annoying ad:'Kerry has his priorities--are they yours?' Damn right they are!)}(

[Hippo_Tron]

25. The only way Kerry looses, is if he looses Pennsylvania

The truth is that Bush is fighting much harder to hold onto his states from last election than Kerry is fighting to hold onto the Gore states. Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan will move more blue with the help of Edwards and Bush's poor job on the economy. New Hampshire will most likely go blue as well. Kerry really only needs to worry about loosing Pennsylvania, whereas Bush needs to SERIOUSLY worry about loosing Florida (unless he can get Jeb to pull off another election fraud), Ohio, New Hampshire, Arizona, and North Carolina.

[King of New Orleans]

29. and Missouri, Nevada and Virginia

too. Quite frankly, i don't think PA will be that close. I think Wisconsin and Iowa will be closer.

[fujiyama]

31. Kerry can win

if he loses PA, but it makes it a lot tougher and unlikely. He would have to win both OH and FL then and keep all the other Gore states.

I'm more worried about OR and WI. Nader came close to tipping those states last time, and I think Bush has put a lot of resources into those states.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

32. Statistically, yes

but practically, no.

If Kerry loses PA he also loses OH and WI. PA is a must win because it's one of the rust belt keystones.

The unions stole PA for Gore with unreal organization. Hope they're ready again.

[Beetwasher]

38. Theresa Heinz-Kerry is Also Very Popular in PA

I just don't see Kerry losing PA and the latest WI polls are very encouraging too...OH is really the state to watch this time around. I figure all my scenarios for a Kerry win without FL BTW. I just think FL is a lost cause, and not because Kerry won't get the most votes...

[4MoreYearsOfHell]

39. I live near Pittsburgh and

PA is a lot closer than you think...bunnypants has been in the state 29 times...Cheney spoke in Pittsburgh last night...They know it is crucial...A must win for us...

[West Coast Democrat]

41. Zogby puts Tennessee in play

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

They're currently tied at 47.5%

[tom22]

43. We need to worry about

PA, ME, WI, NJ (maybe). We should be able to contest OH, AZ, NH, MO, LA. AR TN FL. We need the first four. WE need two or three of the last group. We should get MO, FL, NH. OH and its over.

[yellowcanine]

45. NJ is a lock for Kerry. PA appears to be moving more strongly into the

Kerry column. Florida and Ohio are inching ever so slowly into the Kerry column.

[yellowcanine]

44. At the moment, South Carolina is more in play than North Carolina. Go

figure.