Blue states that are currently in play

[dolstein]

Maine
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon
New Mexico

I haven't seen any polling information for Delaware, but I would probably add it to the list. The vote in Delaware usually corresponds very closely to the national totals -- 2000 was an exception, and without polling info, there's no way to tell whether it will continue to trend Democratic.

Am I missing any states?

[Frodo]

1. That looks about right.

People keep taling about NJ being much closer than it should be. But I haven't seen good polling information lately.

And I largely ignore polls from the VP announcement until the end of the second convention. No point in getting my hopes up on temporary bounces.

For instance, if I'm Kerry I'm not spending any money in Virginia... and the only reason I'm spendign money in NC is to aid Bowles (if he wants it).

If either of these states is close enough in October to be called "tossups" then the election is already over. The money can be better spent in other places.

[sleipnir]

10. Jersey has been pretty consistent with +10% To Kerry

It's a safe state for Kerry at this point.

Most of the data is a little old, so I won't bother to post, but Kerry's been riding a good lead so far.

[Frodo]

11. A couple polls

Quinnipiac had it at Kerry +3% in May (and there was actually a Bush +4% in April by some presumably Republican firm). The only double-digit leads I've seen have been Rasmussen, and I just don't pay attention to his polls - they aren't scientific.

The only real polls I've seen were the two Quinnipiac polls and one done by the Star Ledger (don't know their tilt). Ranging from Kerry +3 to Kerry +6.

Gore won NJ by 15%.

[tridim]

2. Colorado

My gut tells me it's in play. Last time I checked it was only about 6% in idiotboy's favor. In Denver, Kerry bumper stickers and yard signs outnumber Bush's by about 10 to 1.

Edit: Sorry, this should be in the "red states" thread.

[dolstein]

4. Colorado is a red state

I have it listed in a separate post dealing with red states that are currently in play.

[King of New Orleans]

3. I think Michigan and Pennsylvania will fall off that list early

despite all the early effort Bush has put into PA. The polls just have Bush's numbers too low. Even when he's with the margin of error, Bush only has about 44%, how he going to convince the additional 4-5% he'd need to win?

Resources are finite and Bush now has to defend NC and VA so MI, PA and probably MN and IA will fall off that list before Labor Day.

[dolstein]

5. I disagree about PA, MN and IA

I believe that Pennsylvania will continue to be close well into the fall campaign. While it's true that Gore ended up winning the state by around four points, it was a much closer race that the numbers reflect (Gore's own exit polls showed him trailing Bush around mid-day). And even if the Bush campaign's own internal polls show him losing, I don't think they can afford to publicly write the state off.

Gore barely won Iowa and Minnesota in 2000, and I fear that Nader (if he gets on the ballot) will draw enough support from antiwar activists to keep these states very close.

[ButterflyBlood]

7. don't worry

there was a poll here in MN showing Kerry with a clear lead, and Nader was incldued. He got 2%. Less than half what he get in 2000.

Nader is old news and a joke here. Kerry wins by at least 4 points.

[wurzel]

6. As a Pennsylvanian I an embarrassed to see my state on that list.

[Rob in B_more]

12. Helping out in Pennsylvania?

As a Marylander, I feel pretty safe about staying blue, I wonder what I can do in Pennsylvania as far as GOTV, without seeming like a carpetbagger.

[molly]

8. Delaware will be blue

[NWHarkness]

9. Michigan will be solid for Kerry

The right wing Detroit News keeps putting out polls that show a dead heat, but in all the independent polls, Kerry has a good lead.

Of course, the national media is only reporting the polls that favor Bush.

[AspenRose]

13. New Mexico leans toward Kerry/Edwards

Edited to reflect new information

From American Research Group

July 9, 2004
Kerry Leads Bush Among Likely Voters in New Mexico

John Kerry leads George W. Bush among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 51% to 43%, with 6% undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Mexico. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% are registered as Republicans, 49% are registered as Democrats, and 16% are registered with a minor party or no party. The interviews were conducted July 6 through 8, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nm/