New CNN/Gallup Numbers! HUGE!!!! Kerry/Edwards 50%!!

[Beetwasher]

Smirky/Snarly 46%...

This is BIG! We've hit the 50% mark and are outside MOE in a CNN/Gallup poll that ALWAYS leans Bush!!

GD thread here w/ more awesome details:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1977008

[Az_lefty]

1. Great News!!!!

[DjTj]

2. Bounce!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Nicholas_J]

14. Well its not the 15 percent bounce everyone is talking about

But its an improvement. And it must be very irksome for the press to be noting that there is no constitutional way that they could postpone their is absolutely no way to postpone the election witohut a supermajority vote of Congress, even if the polan of the terrorists is to disrupt the elections.

Other polls results today:

NATIONAL POLLS :
Newsweek: Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3
Time: Kerry 49, Bush 44
Rasmussen: 7/12: Kerry 48, Bush

So it looks like Kerry/Edwards are in the lead in in all ppolls done so far this week.

State Polls:

STATE POLLS :
GA: Bush 52, Kerry 41
IL: Kerry 53, Bush 37
AL: Bush 52, Kerry 38


As noticed, this election is going to be as regional as it gets. Bush has an average lead in the polls as averaged for the entire South of about 17 percent. Kerry's average lead in the regions he lead in is smaller, about 10-12 perceb=nt, but that is an average of 3 regions the West, the Northeast, and the Midwest, In the northeast, Kerry's lead over Bush is as laege as Bush's is in the South, average 17 percent. Kerry has a higher overall lead in the West, but in the Midwest, the lead is much smaller as an average, and some of these states keep wavering between Bush and Kerry still.

Bush is ahead in 7 of the 17 battleground staes, but these are all leads below the margin of error. Kerry is ahead in the other 10 and it the leads are similar except in Washington and Oregon, where Kerrys leads are about 6-7 points.

This race is going to be won largely in the midwest. Kerry has held his lead in Florida, and even in the most conservative regions of the state of Florida, polls are showing Kerry leading Bush. Local television polls in my own area, which is 35 percent registered Democrat, and 65 percent Registered Republican (independents are so small that they just average them out of the way), has Kerry leading Bush in the last few days, perhaps a result of the seletion of Edwards. But Trial Lawyer are also a big business here, every other commercial is for a trial lawyer. (the rest are for medical facilities utilizing the latest quack pain treatment). & out of the 17 battleground states are in the Midwest. Arkansas and Florida are the only battleground states in the south. Though everyone is for Kerry here, and it looks like his position is stronger than Bush's there is a lot that is still shaky in this election. Many of the battleground states are tii close for confort. WE will have to see what happens after Edwards visits Florida, Iowa and the other sttes he plans to visit this week and check how the polls start shaping up.

[SunDrop23]

42. Maybe not, but our numbers are going up, up, up!!!

[tandot]

3. They probably have to sound proof Snarly's office

so nobody is able to hear the constant


f*ck off and go, f*ck yourself and f*ck them


I hope they have a defibrillator handy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Time For Fox To Come Out With A Phony Poll

NT

[dolstein]

5. The poll excludes Nader and is therefore dubious

I believe that Nader is already on the ballot in some states as a result of his endorsement by the Reform Party. Therefore, any poll that excludes Nader isn't very useful. At this point, I'd start paying more attention to state by state polls anyway.

[Beetwasher]

6. I Haven't Seen The Raw Data

I'm only going on what the original poster saw reported on CNN and there's no link yet, so I don't think you can automatically assume the poll excludes Nader, though it's possible. The original poster may have left off the Nader numbers from her original report on the poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Believe The Poll Excludes Nad(i)r...

With Nad(i)r the lead shrinks to three in most polls....

The mere mention of his name makes me want to puke....

[Kahuna]

11. CNN Inside Politics read the poll. When Nader was included..

it was at the expense of *. That's what Judy read. I hope she was correct.

[leyton]

24. The CNN poll also had Nader included in a separate question.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/12/presidential/index.html

Poll question 1:
Kerry - 50%
Bush - 46%

Poll question 2:
Kerry - 50%
Bush - 45%
Nader - 2%

[WI_DEM]

8. A four-point lead is fairly good

especially for Gallup.

[zulchzulu]

9. Gee. Looks like it's time to call off the Election

No wonder that story came out today. Defining terrorism can be attacks on our "traditional family values". Sean, Bill and Rush could spin this pretty well.

Hmmm. Is gay marriage a form of terrorism? Paging Karl Rove...courtesy phone for Mr. Rove...

[spooky3]

10. sorry, it's technically within MOE. You have to subtract 3.5 from

us AND add 3.5 to them. So, in one sense, they are tied. However, it is highly unlikely that they are really at 49.5 and we're really at 46.5.

[Jackpine Radical]

19. Your interpretation of MOE is wrong.

MOE is an espression of the probability that the two numbers don't come from the same distribution (population). The odds are 95% that two numbers separated by at least the MOE are not just random consequences of sampling errors.

[spooky3]

26. No, what I said is correct.

For a layperson's explanation, go to the American Statistical Association's pdf file:

www.stat.ncsu.edu/info/srms/surveyerror.pdf

and

take a look at the example (of a political poll) and discussion on pages 10-11.

[Jackpine Radical]

43. OK--having read the pamphlet you graciously linked to,

I stand partially corrected. The results are within 1 (95%) MOE (but not a 90% one). You are slightly incorrect in that the proper way to calculate the MOE between two sample proportions is not to double the MOE of one of the proportions, but to multiply it be 1.7. Thus the best estimate of MOE is 5.9, not 7.

Thanks for the post and for the link.

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. Those media whores just won't give it a rest (nt)

[wishlist]

13. Kerry 50%, Bush 45% and Nader 2% in CNN poll I saw today

Nader is sinking like a rock according to their chart (and only Bush's number went down 1 point when Nader was included vs 46% for Bush when Nader not included-hee hee!)

[Sean Reynolds]

15. Were you guys not just trashing polls showing Bush winning?

Hm....

I'll remember this next time Gallup has Bush up again and you all bitch and moan about polls not meaning crap.

[JHBowden]

16. 'Shoot the messenger' is pretty universal.

The rightwingers do it too when their guy is behind, Comrade Reynolds.

[Beetwasher]

18. Read My Comment

"...in a CNN/Gallup poll that ALWAYS leans Bush!!"

Gallup is a whore, but they are a decidedly pro-Bush whore. They can be relied upon to spin results as much as they can FOR Bush. I would never say polls don't mean crap. They are certainly a bellweather and they have to be taken in total w/ attention to trends. That this particular poll has Kerry opening up a decent lead is very good news...

[tritsofme]

27. Bullshit

show me another polling organization that has consistently gotten elections right over the past 50 years.

Polling companies, especially like Gallup, gain nothing from being wrong.

[Beetwasher]

28. The Bullshit Is Yours

Gallup was dead wrong in 2000 and is not the same organization it once was. If you're defending Gallup, you haven't been paying attention at all.

[tritsofme]

33. Since when is being within 2% and within MoE dead wrong?

The final Gallup poll before the 2000 election showed Bush getting 48% Gore 46% and Nader 4%.

They nailed Bush's support and slightly overstated Nader's support.

Within the MoE, I would call it dead-on.

[Beetwasher]

37. I Wouldn't Call That Dead On

That's not dead on, not at all in my book. They had Bush winning regardless of the MOE. Zogby was dead on. Gallup is consistently higher than the mean in favor of Bush and Republicans and has repeatedly done questionable things w/ their polls.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=534560

Gallup is no longer a credible organization IMO.

[tritsofme]

46. They got exactly what Bush received

and were within 2 points of what Gore would receive.

How much more can you ask for? Without ridiculously high expectations?

[Beetwasher]

55. Zogby Did Better

And you have to redefine dead on to actually mean close, because it wasn't dead on, it was close. You do know what dead on implies don't you?

[sandnsea]

30. Ah, babe in the woods

These polling companies know exactly what to say and what zip codes to plop in to get the numbers they want. It's Kerry's month so Kerry's going to get the poll numbers. I don't put alot of stock in any of it right now.

When they want a fair poll, they can do a fair poll, but we aren't going to have any of those for quite some time.

[prodigal_green]

39. I think Zogby has been pretty accurate n/t

[Sean Reynolds]

34. You're in the minority.....

So many people here attack polls that show Bush leading, yet jizz all over polls that show Kerry leading.....

[Beetwasher]

38. I Still Don't See Your Point and You Fail To Address The Relevant Issue

If Gallup has a pro-Bus bias, and I think the evidence certainly does indicate that they do (just check their historical data against the mean of all polls and you'll see what I mean), then the fact that their bias can't cover for their boy is good news, regardless...

[Sean Reynolds]

44. Bias?

haha!

[Beetwasher]

45. Uhh, Care To Explain Your Amusement W/ The Word Bias?

I suppose you're familiar with their historical data? Are you claiming they're NOT biased? What exactly is your point?

[Sean Reynolds]

48. Yes I am claiming they're not biased...

You're talking about the same Gallup poll that gave Clinton pretty solid marks throughout his presidency, right?

[Beetwasher]

51. So What?

I don't claim they're pulling numbers out of their ass...

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

Only Fox and NBC have more of a Bush lean. I suppose you think Fox is unbiased as well?

[Sean Reynolds]

56. I think you guys are scared....

Scared of the fact that Bush and Kerry probably will have a close election like in 2000.

Sorry, but I don't believe in poll bias.

[Beetwasher]

58. "You Guys"????

Uhhh, WTF are you talking about? Who exactly are "you guys"???

Please point out where I ever said it wasn't going to be a close election. You can't because I never said that and you're full of shit for insinuating I did.

Why do you insist on changing the subject? Why don't you acknowledge any of the points I've made? Do you have a clue about statistical analysis? I think YOU GUYS are deluded or full of shit. Go watch Fox News, I'm sure their Fair and Balanced reporting will make you feel a whole lot better. What fantasy world do you live in? Do you think bias doesn't exist? You're deluded, comrade. Pathetic. You debate like a child.

[tritsofme]

49. Let's have a look at Gallup's historical data

In 1980 the final Gallup poll has Reagan 47 Carter 44 Anderson 8

The final result of that election was Reagan 51% Carter 41% Anderson 7%.

They are so biased that they understated Reagan's victory!

In 1984 the final Gallup poll had Reagan 59% Mondale 41%.

The final result of that election was exactly the same! No room for bias when you hit it head on!!

In 1988 the final Gallup poll had Bush 56 Dukakis 44%

The final result was Bush 54 Dukakis 46.

I guess according to your math that is extreme bias.

In 1992 the final Gallup poll had Clinton at 49 Bush 37 Perot 14. The actual result was Clinton 43 Bush 37 Perot 19.



In 1996 the final Gallup poll had Clinton 52 Dole 41 Perot 7
The final result was Clinton 49 Dole 41 Perot 9.

They overstated both of Clinton's victories! Does that mean they are biased toward the Democrats???

Where is the bias in the historical data that you were supposed to be familiar with?

[Beetwasher]

53. The Historical Data That Shows Their

Deviation FROM THE MEAN of all other polls from the past few years, especially in regard to approval ratings and more lately w/ regard to THIS election. Pay attention to what I'm saying. I'm not discussing presidential elections from 20 years ago, or even 8 years ago. It's not run by the same people who founded it. You do know that don't you? Gallup USED to be respectable, but not anymore.

Only Fox and NBC have more of a Bush lean than Gallup:

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

While this table does not compare against the mean, it does illustrate my point.

You think Gallup is somehow immune from bias and influence? Maybe you'll start defending Fox next...

[mzmolly]

17. Well then I say, if were concerned about terrorism, let's hold the

election early. ;)

[Jackpine Radical]

20. Yeah, that's the ticket--surprise everybody

like "we" did when "we" "returned sovereignty" ahead of schedule.

[mzmolly]

21. Right. Throw them thar terrorists off the track I say!

;)

[Jackpine Radical]

22. For Immediate Release from the White House Information Office:

The Presidential election was held yesterday. Bush won in a landslide.

[mzmolly]

23. LOL. Strange as it may sound, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.

:P

[Joanne98]

25. APPARENTLY????????????

CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry apparently leads President Bush among likely voters surveyed after he chose Sen. John Edwards as his Democratic running mate, but the race remains close, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

The survey of 706 likely voters, conducted between Thursday and Sunday, found 50 percent would support the Kerry-Edwards ticket, and 46 percent would vote for President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.


Look at the language they used the word apparently. Would they use this word if Bush was ahead? NO This is more proof there is NO liberal media.

[Beetwasher]

29. UPDATE W/ LINK! Numbers W/ Nader FAVOR KERRY!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/12/presidential/index.html

--snip--

Given all three options, 50 percent of likely voters still said they would vote for Kerry-Edwards, while Bush-Cheney dropped from 46 percent to 45 percent. Only 2 percent of likely voters said they would pick Nader-Camejo.

--snip--

[DaveSZ]

31. I agree with Comrade

Everyone would be bitching about how this poll is bullshit if Kerry were behind.

[Beetwasher]

32. This Poll IS BULLSHIT!

But it's encouraging nonetheless that Gallup can no longer even stretch the numbers enough to cover for the dimwit.

Here's why it's bullshit:

They Are Only Giving Us "likely" and "registered" Voters, not the total numbers. That's important because there will be a huge turnout this election by people who wouldn't be considered "likely" and who have yet to be "registered". I'd like to see the raw totals, I'll bet Kerry is significantly higher, BUT THEY DON'T GIVE US THOSE NUMBERS AND THEY SHOULD!

Read the article, you'll see they give the wider sample of "registered" but NOT the numbers on the total sample. The numbers on the TOTAL SAMPLE would have Kerry leading by even MORE. But they don't even bother to report on those numbers anymore, but they USED to when they favored Bush. When those numbers STOPPED favoring Bush, they stopped reporting on them and switched to only reporting "likely" voters, which favored Bush. Now THOSE numbers no longer favor Bush and they have nothing else to switch to. Get it? They're playing games and it's still bullshit, but it's encouraging nonetheless because they can no longer hide how badly the asshole is doing.

Gallup is a BUSH whore and they are NOT credible and I still maintain that, that's why this poll is such good news.

[tritsofme]

35. Its all right here my friend.

No conspiracy in the works.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

National Adults K B N Und
2004 Jul 8-11 ^ 51 43 3 * 3

[Beetwasher]

36. But They Don't Report Those Numbers in Any Articles, Do They?

You have to go to the raw data.

So more acurately, the reporting on the poll is bullshit. The poll is bullshit too, but not completely and for different reasons. I don't think they made it up out of thin air, but I do believe that relatively speaking the have a significant pro-Bush bias, so if they're showing these numbers, they very well might be even better (unless of course they recently started to poll w/ less of a bias, which is possible). You may disagree, but I challenge you to check out the historical data and deny the deviation that exists between Gallup's data and the mean.

[tritsofme]

47. The result from "National Adults" is not pertinent

because we are not going to have 100% voter turnout. How often do any polling writeups include "national adults" anyway?

[Beetwasher]

54. Of Course It's Pertinent!

All the data is. What a ludicrous statement. Why even gather the data if it's not pertinent? Duh... Do you think ONLY "likely" voters are going vote? The write ups USED to include the total adult numbers (and some still do, obviously you don't pay attention) when they favored Bush, then they started switching to the "likely" category. That's my point.

I don't know why you have such a hard on for defending Gallup's integrity. Do you work for them or something? What's next, defending Fox news? Maybe you'll start telling me how they're fair and balanced?

[NNadir]

40. I'm hoping that the two Repuke tickets together Cheney-Nader and Camejo-

Bush come in under 40% combined in the general election.

Only in this way will the international credibility of the American people be capable of restoration.

[SunDrop23]

41. Yahooooooo!

[cthrumatrix]

50. THIS is why there is a "terra election concern"....no other reason

[Nicholas_J]

52. National polls are important in one way

State polls in another. I have always thought it would be difficult for Edwards to help Kerry win states, even his own state of North Carolina, and the Latest CNN/Gallop polls on Nort Carolina done along with this polls shows some rather unpleasant trends since Edwards was selected:

CNN/USAT/Gallup | 7/9-7/11 680 L 5.0% Bush 54% Kerry 39% 4%

The latest poll in North Carolina shows Kerry taking a large dip in polls in that state since the announcement of Edwards as running mate,With Bush moving up into the mid fofties and Kerry dropping down into the upper thirties, briging south Carolina into the average range of Bush's lead in the south. Thr average lead that BUsh has in the southern states is 17 percent, and this latest poll in North Carolina moves Bush's lead on the dream team into the middle double digits. Hopefully Edwardshas a more positive effect in the midwest, and hopefully in Florida (Living in one of the most conservative areas of the sunshine state, I am seeing some positive movement for Kerry/Edwards here, and I am sitting smack dab in the heart of bible thumping, throw away democratic ballots Bush Country. Recent polls even here show Kerry/Edwards pulling ahead of Bush, at least on local television news polls. This may be the result of the fact that Democrats have been registering in great numbers and the differential between the percentage of registerd Democrats and Republicans has taken a large spike in the last 10 months. Afer the 2000 election, Democrats adn Republicans came to one of the closest splits ever here, with Demcrats only having less than a percent more registered voters than Republicans, This number has increased to Democrats having ten percent more registered voters than Republicans. Many voters in disenfranchised groups have come out en-masse to register. In my area, over 37,000 votes vanished, and the final count shows that in this county alone, around 2,500 democratic votyes for Gore were eliminated with absolutely nothing wrong with the ballots. No bad chads, no unreadable ballots, nothing. Perfectly valid, perfecty clear ballots simply removed from the count. Peopl are angry. The local churches are talking up Bush a storm, but Kerry seems to be taking hold since Edwards has been placed on the ticket. North Carolina...well you know, a prophet in his own country.

[West Coast Democrat]

57. Also, Bush's approval rating dropped back down to 47%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/stateNation/

It had been as high as 49% with the "Reagan Bump." Now 47% Approve and 49% Disapprove.