New Zogby for WSJ shows Kerry +3 in battleground states

[Jersey Devil]

over 3 weeks ago, holding the lead in 12 of 16 when he previously had the lead in 9.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html :-)

[Jersey Devil]

1. oops, sorry about that

Don't know how that happened.

[ronnykmarshall]

2. I still think Nevada will go for Kerry.

I'm impressed that Tenn is even at this point.

[gristy]

3. A smart lawyer friend who voted for Bush in 2000 thinks

Kerry's gonna win. I just now talked with him about politics for 25 minutes.

[Jersey Devil]

6. Hmm, I know a smart lawyer who thinks Kerry's going to win as well

I'll ask him again tomorrow morning when I see him again. We meet every day when it's time to shave. LOL

[patrice]

4. Yay! That makes all of the sweating we did as about 30 of us walked

the neighborhoods with America Votes in Independence Mo. in 90's heat and humidity worthwhile!

[disenfranchised]

5. Anybody know about Nader?

In which of these states is the scumbag on the ballot?

[Jersey Devil]

8. Zogby says Nader gives Bush the lead in Ark

and gets 5.9% in Nevada, so there are at least two at this point that the SOB is screwing up.

[stellanoir]

7. about 6 weeks ago I read where some pundit wrote

(sorry I read and discount so many it's hard to keep track) regarding the alleged dead heat in the polls, "Kerry's number is a floor, Bush's number are a ceiling." In other words no one who is undecided is going to convert to Bush. Many are still getting to know Kerry.

That, just as these numbers was encouraging.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. What is up with West Virginia (8 points for Bush)?

WTF????

[MikeG]

13. Inbreeding.

[alonso_quijano]

10. Too early to celebrate...

...since the margin of error is +/- Diebold.

But we can hope!

[tridim]

11. I wonder why Colorado isn't on that list?

Bush is only ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points. It's obviously a battleground state.

[Jersey Devil]

12. Good question - maybe Zogby doesn't poll there

since it isn't usually a battleground state.

[BluegrassDem]

14. That's the election

It doesn't matter about Arkansas or Nevada if Kerry carries Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri!! I like that electoral map a lot!

[newyawker99]

22. Hi BluegrassDem!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Beetwasher]

15. I Posted The New Gallup Numbers Which Are Also Encouraging, BUT

These numbers are MUCH MUCH better and more meaningful!!!

Gotta love the trend!!!

Some interesting observations: Some of these poll numbers are wildly out of wack w/ some other recent polls. WI for instance has Kerry w/ a sizeable lead, but I saw another WI poll last week that had it going for Bush w/ a decent lead...

It's it normal for polls to be so incredibly divergent or is something else going on?

[59millionmorons]

16. I dont buy the AR,MI,FL numbers

This is an interactive poll, it only polls those who sign up to be polled. I will pass on this type of polling.

[fujiyama]

17. While I don't put much stock

in these interactive polls - as you mentioned they aren't "scientifically" done.

However the numbers in those states you mentioned actually do go along with those of other polling firms.

The states that don't make much sense are WI and OR, which are much closer in most other polls.

[Inland]

24. Interactive polling

Is that what interactive polling is? I thought it was repolling the same group of people for trends, but I didn't realize it relied on volunteers.

[WI_DEM]

18. wow, according to Zogby Bush is now up by ten in Wisconsin

and nine in New Hampshire and six in Florida.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

19. No, Kerry is up by 10 in Wis and 8 in NH!

[Hillary for Pres]

26. But he was down in VA by 2% now its 5%.... we need to get back on track in

my state! But he is finally putting money into Virginia which is very exciting!

[fujiyama]

20. Remember though

that these aren't random samples.

I would expect the actual race to be much closer, though I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry has a 3-5 point lead after the Edwards pick.

[Beetwasher]

21. Yes, I Was Very Encouraged By These WI Numbers!

I had seen some less than encouraging numbers in WI last week that I thought were puzzling. These are more in line w/ what I would expect.

[MallRat]

23. Poll method sounds a bit odd, but the trend is meaningful.

I read the methodology- it's an online poll of prescreened subjects? Not quite sure I understand how Zogby applies his special sauce to get his final numbers.

But that said, the more meaningful thing to consider are the change in numbers from June 21st to July 12. Plus means Kerry leads, minus means Kerry trails:

AR: went from +2.1 to -2.2
FL: went from -4.2 to +6.6
IA: +2.1 to +1.6
MI: -0.7 to +5.9
MN: +4.6 to +5.2
MO: -0.7 to +3.3
NV: -2.5 to -1.8
NH: +3.3 to +9.0
NM: +6.9 to +7.3
OH: -5.4 to +0.7
OR: +6.6 to +9.2
PA: +7.0 to +7.3
TN: -18.8 to 0.0 (no, this is not a typo. I'm guessing that -18.8 was a BIG outlier.)
WA: +6.4 to +8.2
WV: -6.0 to -8.2
WI: +4.4 to +9.4

In short, in the most critical of the battleground states, Kerry has clearly made big progress. Very, very good trend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Felt Better Till I Saw The Methodology....

As someone who has done research in poli sci at the graduate level that sounds like sloppy social science....