Can Kerry carry the state of VA this November?

[AlecBGreen]

Ive said it once and Ill say it again: Virginia is too good for George W Bush. We need him like a fish needs a tricycle. You and I know this, yet all 13 of our electoral votes went to that imposter in 2000. Why? Who knows. This I do know: KERRY CAN WIN VA THIS YEAR. If he would only take a little time to visit this state and get to know it...we have a rapidly expanding blue north (DC) that has become a major power in state elections. If Kerry can claim 2/3 of the independents (a doable task) he will carry VA. He only has to reassure the rural voters that 1) he isnt going to tax them to death 2) hes not going to take away their guns and 3) he IS going to bring back jobs. Good jobs. If he does this, he just picked up 13 votes and collectively bitchsmacked the GOP :) What a happy day. So can it happen or am I dreaming?

-Alec

p.s. If you have never seen it, the flag of VA has a crest of an armored woman with a spear standing atop a slain man. The inscription reads "Ever Thus To Tyrants" What else is Bush!?

[King of New Orleans]

1. If he wins NVa by 10 points

he can win the state

[Doosh]

2. 35-40% chance he wins it

[AlecBGreen]

4. my guess too

hes got better than 50/50 if he does well in the debates...and hell, my border collie could WHOOP Shrub's "Texas" ass

[MarianJack]

3. If He Does Carry Virginia...

...the likelyhood would be that he probably ouldn't need it because he'd be sooo damn far ahead everywhere else! A SWEET scenario!

[Zomby Woof]

5. Virginia Is For Freepers

And yes, I lived there for over 12 years, so I know firsthand.

I wish Kerry could, but he won't.

[msanger]

6. trailing by 2 points as of Saturday

I was at a Kerry fundraiser on Saturday, and we raised 4,000 for Kerry. A state democratic offical said they see Kerry just 2% points behind, and are continuing to buy ads in the southern cities - I think they are going for the military votes.

We can win VA - all it takes is all us Virginians doing a little work between now and election day.

[AlecBGreen]

7. all it takes

is all us Virginians doing a little work between now and election day.

Damn straight! That goes double for the rest of you stuck in freeperland

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. WOW!!! We are SO close! We CAN DO IT!

Definitely!

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Extremely unlikely, Virginia tilts consistently almost 10% Republican

Compared to the national average. Even when Clinton won nationwide by 8.5% in 1996, he still lost Virginia by 2 points. The gap may be closing, but Kerry can't prevail minus a national margin in the 6 point range. Once again, that makes Virginia irrelevant, like so many other best case scenario states.

Virginia
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican

[spooky3]

12. huge increases in minorities since 2000; lots of military folks who

usually are Repug now have a lot of reasons to vote with the Dems;
an effective Dem. governor;
a business community that is withdrawing support from the neocons (see today's W Post);
energized Dem strongholds such as Arlington and Alexandria;
Gore gave up on VA in 2000;
a VP candidate with electricity and southern charm;
and many other factors make 2004 very different and "do-able" for the Dems IF they are willing to spend a LOT of time and money here.

I am not sure that is the best use of these resources for them, though.

I've seen a LOT of Bush ads (well, at least the first few seconds, before I hit the clicker) so obviously the Repugs are worried about VA. I've seen NONE for Kerry recently.

[spooky3]

13. The last two Rasmussen polls show VA to be a "tossup"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20July%2010.htm

[GBD4]

10. Fairfax County

1992
Bush 44%
Clinton 42%

1996
Dole 48%
Clinton 47%

2000
Bush 49%
Gore 48%
Nader 3%

based on that trend, I say we win Fairfax County this time. Bill Nelson said at the Kerry/Edwards rally last week in FL that "so goes FL so goes the nation." I say so goes Fairfax County so goes VA!

[dolstein]

11. Edwards might have had an outside chance if he were the nominee

But he won't be enough to push Kerry over the top in Virginia. As a Virginia native, I'd love to have Virginia go Democratic this fall, but it's not going to happen. Not with Kerry.