Poll: Edwards boosts Kerry campaign(not in N.C.) Dems lead GOP team nat'ly

[papau]

http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040713/6359063s.htm

Poll: Edwards boosts Kerry campaign, but not in N.C. Dems lead GOP team nationally
By Susan Page
USA TODAY


WASHINGTON -- John Kerry gets a boost nationwide from his choice of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as running mate. But Edwards fails to make his home state competitive, the first in a series of state-by-state polls by USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup shows.

Democratic hopes that Edwards' selection would broaden the list of battleground states in the South were dented by the survey. In it, President Bush and Vice President Cheney hold a commanding 54%-39% lead among likely voters in North Carolina. The lead narrows to 49%-43% among registered voters.

Nationwide, however, Edwards gives Kerry a 6-point bounce. The Democrats now lead Bush-Cheney by 50% to 45% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%. Three weeks earlier, before Kerry announced his vice presidential choice, Bush led Kerry by a single point.

The national survey was taken Thursday through Sunday, the state poll Friday through Sunday. The margin of error for likely voters is +/--4 percentage points in the national survey, +/--5 in the state.<snip>

[King of New Orleans]

1. So, Gallup took a 49-43 margin among registered voters

and then claim that "likely" voters will vote 54-39 for Bush.


I guess that means in the national polls the Kerry/Edwards lead of 50-45 among likely voters is really a lead of 54-40 among registered voters, but Gallup is trying to hide the huge Kerry/Edwards advantage by manipulating the results.

[Frances]

4. You make a good point about

likely vs. registered voters. The writer gave both statistics for the state but only the likely voters for the nation.

I thought the whole article was spun for Bush. It ended by saying that Edwards only gave a 6 point bounce whereas Cheney gave a 12 point bounce in 2000. There was no mention that Edwards is now more popular than Cheney!

[GainesT1958]

2. Um, that's not what a recent Mason-Dixon poll showed...

It (taken in late June) had Kerry trailing Dub by only 5 points, and that was PRIOR to his selection of Edwards. No question was asked in that poll about Edwards' includion on the ticket. M/D polls tend to be the most accurate about the state, so I'm eagerly awaiting the results of the next one. My bet is that it will show Kerry/Edwards ahead of Dub/Cheney by a small margin. Trust us, folks; North Carolina is now IN PLAY as a genuine BATTLEGROUND--and it became so officially on July 6!:D

:kick:

B-)

[Frances]

3. You are right that North Carolina must be in play

Why else would Bush run ads there?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. exactly what the Kerry campaign said about the ads

"...Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, points to a huge turnout for Kerry and Edwards at a rally in Raleigh on Saturday and notes the Bush campaign is airing TV ads in the state. "When they take their ads off we'll know they believe" the state isn't competitive, he says."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm

[WI_DEM]

5. I don't believe that Bush leads by 14-points in NC

more Gallup hogwash.

[Zynx]

6. Their "Likely Voter" sample is off.

That's how they produce some of their stranger national numbers and these odd state numbers. Registered voters is much closer at 49% to 43%.

[AP]

7. It doesn't make sense that K-E are going up in most other states

including several in the south, yet they're this far behind in NC -- Edwards's state, where he has 65% approval ratings, and where Bowles is doing so well.

And it doesn't make sense that Bush would be visiting NC and spending money in NC if this poll were correct.

[yellowcanine]

8. I think the NC poll is flawed because it was taken over the weekend but

the truth is Kerry doesn't need to win NC - just be competetive enough to keep * there and spending ad money there. It is a rope a dope strategy. Money spent in NC isn't available to spend in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. If Kerry wins those three and I think he probably will it is hard to see how he can be denied a victory. Bush would have to hold unto all the rest of the red states and pick up Michigan and Wisconsin and at least one more blue state. Problem for Bush is that the same things that win Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida probably win Michigan and Wisconsin. Actually I think Michigan is probably not winnable for Bush unless all of our calculations are off and some big external event such as a terrorist attack gives Bush a big boost. The possibility of such a public reaction to an attack is diminished by the Bush bumbling about the delaying of elections, however. Some guy in Homeland Security raises the issue - little Scotty fails to shoot it down and Condi trys to shoot it down but we all know how credible she is. Clearly they have talked about this behind closed doors and just having raised the issue will be enough to tip some swing voters away from Bush and plant a lot of doubt in the minds of lots of voters. It is one in a series of royal Cheney-ups that is grinding down the Bush campaign. Heh. Heh. HA!