Take a Memo

[BootinUp]

MEMO: HRC Strongest v. McCain
To: Automatic Delegates
From: Harold Ickes
Date: May 1, 2008
RE: HRC Strongest v. McCain

A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November.

The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate’s overall strength. In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain.

HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup's daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).

SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama's lead over McCain is in single digits.

CLINTON BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama’s negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been.

CLINTON IS THE CANDIDATE VOTERS TRUST WITH THE ECONOMY: The economy is the top issue among voters and is likely to remain so through November. In the CBS/NYT poll, Hillary beat both Obama and McCain as the candidate who is talking about the economy most by a margin of 25% to Obama’s 13% and McCain’s 7%.

OBAMA UNFAVORABLES RISING QUICKLY: In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama’s unfavorables increased by ten points in the last month (24 to 34%) while his favorables decreased by four points. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama’s unfavorables among independents rose to 31%. The Fox poll shows that in the last two months, Obama’s unfavorables have increased by nine points (33 to 42%) while his favorables decreased by seven points (54 to 47%). In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama’s negative ratings increased by five points in the last month (32 to 37%) while his positive ratings decreased by three points in the last month (49 to 46%).

CLINTON STRONGEST AMONG SWING VOTING BLOCS: The new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton leading McCain among seniors (51-39) but has McCain BEATING Obama (49-38). She runs stronger against McCain with those under 30 than Obama does, pulling two-thirds of the young vote while Obama gets 55% against McCain. And she wins the Catholic vote against McCain (58-35) while McCain beats Obama (46-43).


http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=7429

[Mooney]

1. Let's make this simple.

If "Barry" has 10 apples, and "Hilly" has 9 apples, and it's a contest to see who can get the most apples, who wins?

The person with the most apples.

Thank you for playing.

[depakid]

2. Except that it's not a contest for the most apples

it's a specific number of apples- and even then, that person still has to play another game....

[Mooney]

6. How is the person with less apples in a better place

than the person with more apples, in a contest for a specific number of apples?

[depakid]

8. Never said they were any better worse

If I need 12 apples, and can only get 10, then I don't "win the game."

[Mooney]

9. But if you have even less than the guy with 10

you have no business sending out memos to tell people that they should be looking at metrics other than the number of apples, unless you're trying to change the rules.

Right?

[Madam Mossfern]

10. I'm hungry

I think I'll eat an apple.
I think I'll have one of Hillary's thank you.
I love sour apples.

[depakid]

11. If your goal is to win second game (the one that matters in the end)

then, yes, indeed other metrics are both persuasive and important.

[Mooney]

12. They will never be as persuasive or important

as who has more apples.

[NanceGreggs]

3. 'Nuf said!

Perfect!

[Spider Jerusalem]

4. Polls six months out from the election mean nothing.

Especially not when complicated by the fact that Obama and Clinton are running against one another and not against McCain at this point. To suggest that polling against McCain for either, at present, could be considered to be definitive, accurate, or even reliable, given the current situation, when the election is not until November, is intellectually dishonest and indeed stupid (if not insulting, because it presumes some people will be stupid enough to see it as a valid argument...which it seems like you, for one, have).

Hillary still won't win, and once she's out of the way and not needlessly complicating things Obama's numbers vs McCain will go up; it's an inevitability. There've been RECORD turnouts in Democratic primaries this year, and record numbers of new Democratic voters registered. A lot of that is due to Obama and his campaign (not to mention their record-breaking fundraising). With all of those advantages, if Obama isn't more eletable than John McCain, then this country is irredeemably fucked.

[Uben]

5. This thread needs to be locked!

We can't have people getting news like this. Do you want to cause a riot at DU? This is akin to Rush Limbaugh's call for a riot in Denver! There are people here that news like this could push over the edge. Please refrain from posting anything positive about Clinton. I think it is now against the rules, but I haven't checked today.

[Dr Fate]

7. That poll will change as soon as DEMS start attacking McCain.

Obviously the media wont do it for us- so McCain gets a free ride for a while...

Perhaps you & I could agree that it would be nice if BOTH candidates could switch to that mode- much less one or the other.

[BootinUp]

13. No, it won't be sinking that fast.

:kick:

[BootinUp]

14. kick