a non-politician's (that would be me) political take on what's up

[RainDog]

any reasonable replies welcome. screaming blood-vessel-popping screeds, please tear off your own head. requests for me to place or remove my skull from various orifices will not go unpunished. okay? those are my parameters going into my questions/remarks.

I read last week from the politico or some such, posted here, that the day after Hillary met with the super delegates, these delegates leaked the story that Hillary was not their choice b/c she would bring so many high negatives to the presidential campaign she would cost some house members their seats. These delegates are not going to throw themselves under the sub (just to change it up a bit) for Hillary at the expense of their own seats.

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of that report, obviously, so I'm looking at events to see if there is any confirmation of this pov.

The next day, Dean said that the votes should go on through the primary BUT by June, one of the two candidates should drop out so that the party can build unity before the convention and focus on defeating McCain. That, to me, was a clear message that the DNC does not want this to go to convention and if one or the other does not drop out, the supers will be in their metaphorical smoke-filled room (only now it's febreeze filled room, I guess) and hash out the winner. In this case, refer to the first paragraph here.

Then, Obama appeared for a rally in Bloomington, IN where he was endorsed by Baron Hill. Hill represents a hugely contested district. His district includes the so-called "People's Republic of Bloomington," limestone quarry industrial areas and a large agricultural sector. He lost his seat to his challenger and gained it back over the course of his last two campaigns. He's running in the November election.

Today Joe Andrews, also from Indiana, made a significant move by leaving the Clinton campaign. He not only talked about his personal choice. He also urged all other superdelegates to pledge for Obama too in order to unite the party and because, imo, Andrews sees the future of this nation and this party.

Those two moments make me think the original paragraph about what's on the minds of the supers is truer than true. Hill doesn't want to lose his seat because Hillary is on the ticket bringing out all the fruitcakes from Gnaw Bone who think the Clintons invented political sexual scandal and must be defeated so that the baby Jesus can burp. Andrews is helping him. Bayh... well, bye bye. Wrong race. wrong horse. You don't get to fumigate after Dick leaves the v.p. mansion.

Are there other areas in NC, for instance, or those with upcoming primaries that have seen the same sort of thing?

[phrigndumass]

1. One of the elected supers (anonymously) writes to DemConWatch ...

... that almost all remaining elected supers will endorse Senator Obama once he reaches the halfway mark of pledged delegates (Pelosi Club), somewhere around May 20. But it's been said the uglier the race gets, the sooner some will endorse to help curb the ugliness.

Mr. Super's take on where undeclared supers stand

If anybody knows superdelegates it's Mr. Super. In his latest post he gives a rundown of where he thinks the remaining superdelegates are in their decision.

Governors (7): All Pelosi Club members, though Kentucky's Steve Beshear could conceivably endorse Senator Clinton, and North Carolina's Mike Easley could endorse Senator Obama.

US Senators (19): As colleagues in the Senate, it's feasible that all could be Pelosi Club members.

Undeclared House Freshmen (18): All Pelosi Club. there 40 freshmen in the class of 2006, the 18 who have not endorsed look to be facing tough re-elects and don't want to risk splitting their base by picking a side. It's not what they were elected to do.

House members (52): Of the remaining House members, most are Pelosi Club. There are a few who may endorse prior to their state's primary, that's a total of nine members when you take out the Freshmen who were referenced above.

DNC Members (126): Virtually all up for grabs, save for a few Party luminaries.

I honestly believe that the peacemakers in all of this could be Jimmy Carter, who though he was not a popular president has since become the most popular ex-president, and the award-winning and Al Gore.

Now our definition of Pelosi Club is a superdelegate that commits to voting for the delegate winner. Not sure if Mr. Super is including the ones that say they'll vote for the leader of the Popular Vote. Hopefully he'll drop in and let us know.

Update: Mr. Super has confirmed that, like us, he considers the Pelosi Club going for the leader of the pledged delegates.

Posted by Matt at 4:32 http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/mr-supers-take-on-where-undeclared.html

:hi:

[Sam07]

2. Thanks for this good news!

I needed it today, more than ever!

[phrigndumass]

3. Happy to help a fellow Illinoisan

:toast:

[RainDog]

4. also saw this at The Politico

Currently Obama is credited with 1737 delegates (pledged and super) and Clinton is credited with 1598 delegates. Of the 795 Super Delegates only 272 haven't indicated for whom they intend to vote.

As such, assuming the remaining pledged delegates break 50/50 -- which given our system of proportional allocation is nearly certain to be at least roughly accurate -- then Clinton would need to win 206 of the remaining 272 Super Delegates to win. In other words, she would need to convince 75.7% of the remaining undecided Super Delegates. This would require her to gain more than 3 of the undecided for every one that Obama picks up. This is essentially impossible and this is why the race is really over. The only think Hillary Clinton can do at this point is continue to damage Obama by (1) attacking his qualifications to serve ("he's not ready" "he's not fit to be Comander and Chief"), (2) providing opposition research to the Republicans (see today's article in HuffPost), (3) making Obama waste campaign cash fighting Clinton instead of McCain, and (4) spliting the Dem and dragging the race out where her followers won't be willing to vote for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

5. I completely agree with that!

1, 2 and 4 are obvious, and #3 is also accurate. Hell, I'm thinking about giving Senator Obama my $600 "rebate" to help officially end Senator Clinton's campaign. Not that I can afford to, but can I really afford not to?

Thanks for the read from The Politico, and for your insight.

:hi: