Obama loses 24 points among men in Indiana — in five days! Pastor Controversy Possibly Big Factor

[2rth2pwr]

INDIANAPOLIS -- A statewide poll indicates a dramatic shift of support from Sen. Barack Obama to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of next week's Indiana Democratic presidential primary -- a shift that could be explained by a controversy over Obama's ex-pastor, the poll's conductor says.
http://www.theindychannel.com/politics/16106143/detail.html

The survey, conducted by Indianapolis-based TeleResearch Corp. and released exclusively to 6News, showed Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama in Indiana -- 48 percent to 38 percent -- with 14 percent of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

The telephone poll of 943 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters, conducted from April 25 through April 29, showed Clinton's support getting stronger as the polling period advanced.

On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a slim lead -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- despite a 20 percentage-point lead for Obama among male respondents.

Each day, more respondents supported Clinton. By the last day of polling, Clinton had a 4 percent lead among men -- 45 percent to 41 percent -- representing a staggering 24-point swing in that demographic.

Over the four days in which the survey was conducted, a controversy involving the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's former pastor, swelled.

"In that window, he dominated all the political news in the presidential race," said Jeff Lewis, TeleResearch CEO. "In that period of time, Obama's lead among men went from a 20 point lead on Friday … to a 4 point lead for Sen. Clinton."

Among females, Clinton held a commanding lead of between 15 and 20 points.

"All the movement in the poll was on men, and this is a statewide survey," Lewis said. "So, it clearly indicated that men abandoned Obama as a result of the Rev. Wright."


TeleResearch's polling ahead of the last two Indiana gubernatorial elections proved to be an accurate predictor of those races' outcomes. In 2000, the firm's results matched the eventually winning margin of Frank O'Bannon, and its 2004 results came within 1 percentage point of Mitch Daniels' winning margin.


http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/1/175419/2858

[ProSense]

1. Maybe it's the six months of RW e-mail from Hillary's campaign

Former journalist Sidney Blumenthal has been widely credited with coining the term "vast right-wing conspiracy" used by Hillary Clinton in 1998 to describe the alliance of conservative media, think tanks, and political operatives that sought to destroy the Clinton White House where he worked as a high-level aide. A decade later, and now acting as a senior campaign advisor to Senator Clinton, Blumenthal is exploiting that same right-wing network to attack and discredit Barack Obama. And he's not hesitating to use the same sort of guilt-by-association tactics that have been the hallmark of the political right dating back to the McCarthy era.

Almost every day over the past six months, I have been the recipient of an email that attacks Obama's character, political views, electability, and real or manufactured associations. The original source of many of these hit pieces are virulent and sometimes extreme right-wing websites, bloggers, and publications. But they aren't being emailed out from some fringe right-wing group that somehow managed to get my email address. Instead, it is Sidney Blumenthal who, on a regular basis, methodically dispatches these email mudballs to an influential list of opinion shapers -- including journalists, former Clinton administration officials, academics, policy entrepreneurs, and think tankers -- in what is an obvious attempt to create an echo chamber that reverberates among talk shows, columnists, and Democratic Party funders and activists. One of the recipients of the Blumenthal email blast, himself a Clinton supporter, forwards the material to me and perhaps to others.

These attacks sent out by Blumenthal, long known for his fierce and combative loyalty to the Clintons, draw on a wide variety of sources to spread his Obama-bashing. Some of the pieces are culled from the mainstream media and include some reasoned swipes at Obama's policy and political positions.

link

[jbnow]

31. At a town hall today a man asked Obama

first about a trade issue and then said he had a second question and said if Obama could only answer one it this was the one. That question was about something on an e-mail he had gotten that said he didn't think people should be required to say the pledge of allegiance and then something like so as president he'd end being able to say the pledge at gatherings.

Obama answered both, that one first. He told them that wherever there was a primary people in that state started getting a lot more of these e-mails.
He's right.

This article talks about the increase in e-mails and also mentions Blumenthal although not as the e-mail sender, he sends crazy articles right to reporters.

This is from Nation Magazine in March, an excellent by sad article called Smearing Obama
It focuses mostly on how some of the extreme right wing get some of it the appearance of being credible but leave no doubt smearing Obama is a shared game.

Even if the false claims about Obama originally emanated from the neoconservative right, the Clinton campaign has eagerly pushed them. Clinton operative Sidney Blumenthal has e-mailed damaging stories about Obama to reporters, including a recent article by Batchelor. Clinton fundraiser Annie Totah circulated a column by Ed Lasky before Super Tuesday, with the inscription "Please vote wisely in the Primaries." Clinton adviser Ann Lewis falsely referred to Zbigniew Brzezinski, a critic of AIPAC, as a chief adviser to Obama on a conference call with Jewish reporters. "I can tell you for a fact people from the Clinton campaign are calling reporters and asking them to pay attention to things involving Obama and Israel," says Shmuel Rosner, Washington correspondent for the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. The volume of e-mails about Obama in a given state tends to track the election calendar--hardly a coincidence.

John Batchelor whose articles they specifically mentioned Blumenthal emailing is described this way

John Batchelor, a right-wing talk-radio host for KFI-AM in Los Angeles who has written a series of outlandish columns about Obama for the conservative magazine Human Events and repeatedly pushed the Obama smears on his radio show. According to an e-mail of Batchelor's obtained by The Nation, Batchelor says that information about Obama and Khalidi came via "oppo research."

"Oppo research" I guess could be republicans or not.

It's amazing that Obama gets any votes. He should almost open every town hall asking if people had any e-mail rumors they wanted to ask about. He has had to fight the oddest things. I wish the campaign was his truth vs her truth and let people vote on that.

The pledge of allegiance question comes up way too often and the media is hardly a help. For instance on MTP last week Timmy talked about the picture of him not putting his hand on his heart during the pledge of allegiance. No one corrected him. The picture was of course during national anthem. As this page shows, he's not the only one who has ever done that.

[Egnever]

36. That should be an OP

[NanceGreggs]

2. Hillary has lost all chance at the nomination ...

... and it happened much longer than five days ago.

[LVjinx]

32. Shall we cancel the remaining primaries and execute the undecided Superdelegates?

No?

Then there's still a 40%-50% chance of Hillary being the nominee.

[NanceGreggs]

34. 40% to 50% chance?

Yeah, hm mm, okey-dokey, whatever you say ...

[Mezzo]

42. You underestimate her at your own peril. Good luck with that.

[NanceGreggs]

46. And you grossly over-estimate her chances at this point ...

... and with no basis in facts, numbers, or reality.

Good luck with that.

[leeroysphitz]

3. I guess they don't smell what Barrack is cookin...

Time for the people's elbow.

[thunder rising]

4. To bad she's broke!! And she's lost. I'm all broken up.

[rodeodance]

25. How many pillows do you need?

[Quixote1818]

5. Thats a shift of 1 out of 10 male voters. I suspect once this dies down

in the next few days, that 1 in 10 male voters will move back to Obama.

[laugle]

28. Look for the Reverend to come

out with a rebuttal, that's what I think will happen........that guy has a big ego..........

[bowens43]

6. Well you better start talking Obama up or McCain is going to the president.

[MrSlayer]

7. It's sad to see how stupid this country is.

You can fool most of the people most of the time apparently. Sad.

[FARAFIELD]

8. i like how it said it has matched pass outcomes

Is the final vote going to be Hillary 48 obama 38? What a god awful post. Its not so bad as straight reporting of a poll but to editorialize about the outcome when it only totals 86 of the vote is idiotic.

[2rth2pwr]

9. Late breakers have been choosing Hillary.

[FARAFIELD]

39. Actually thats incorrect

Undecideds break about 75% for the eventual winners (regradless of Hill or Obama)

[Secret_Society]

10. I believe it's called the big MO!!!

[Condem]

11. This, too, shall pass.

[TheWraith]

12. You're just going to keep on mentally masturbating to every oddball poll you can find, aren't you?

Ignoring steadfastly the fact that the polls by bigger organizations don't agree with you.

[emilyg]

13. Here you go..

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/23 - 04/30 -- 45.4 43.8 Obama +1.6
CNN 04/28 - 04/30 441 RV 46 45 Obama +1.0
Gallup Tracking 04/28 - 04/30 1229 V 45 49 Clinton +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking 04/27 - 04/30 900 LV 44 46 Clinton +2.0
FOX News 04/28 - 04/29 400 LV 41 44 Clinton +3.0
CBS News/NY Times 04/25 - 04/29 402 LV 46 38 Obama +8.0
NBC/WSJ
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls

[rodeodance]

24. I wonder if you would object so rudely to the OP if Obama was ahead?

[TheWraith]

38. I'd react rudely to anyone who's denying reality in such a massive and total manner.

Cherry picking the one outlier poll that shows positive movement for Clinton, just to keep trying to deny and repress the fact that she's lost, is pathetic Republican style behavior that has no place among Democrats.

[Pablotomboy]

14. Indiana is not a very important state

NC is, because it has many more delegates.

[faithfulcitizen]

17. I'm glad you're gone.

[JoFerret]

15. Time for more beer and basketball

or is basketball the wrong sport?

[kentuck]

16. No, it's not Reverend Wright - it is jobs, jobs, jobs!

Hillary is very wise to push this issue in IN, just like in OH and PA. It will work very well in KY and WV, also. Obama needs to find a counter to this Hillary strategy. I would recommend that he tell the people of Indiana the truth. The high gas prices are mostly due to the war in Iraq. That also contributes to the higher cost for food and goods. That then leads to losses in jobs and a downturn in the economy. Who voted for the war?

[Triana]

26. Who voted for the war. Who supported and championed NAFTA -

both answers: Clinton (one or the other or both of them).

Hillary pushing jobs eh? Yep. She's pushing them alright. Straight to India, China and wherever else. She's pushing them all right out of this country. What a hypocrite.

[Yossariant]

18. WOW!

:nuke: :woohoo:

[faithfulcitizen]

19. We'll see now that he denounced Wright, What does Obama signs all over in my 99.99% white town mean?

hmmmm, good things I think.

[2rth2pwr]

20. Probably as much as those record breaking rallies in PA.

[faithfulcitizen]

21. you don't know my town. It means something.

[Gore1FL]

22. You mean she'll win by less that 10%

just shy of the 20%+ she needs?

[laugle]

30. That's a good point! It seems that

those big rallies are not translating into votes. Makes me think of P.T. Barnum, who put on a really good show!

[otohara]

49. Are You In Indiana?

you mean white men aren't afraid of the former black pastor of one of the candidates?

This gives me HOPE!

[faithfulcitizen]

50. yes, and unfortunately, people round these parts tend to be racist. I see new signs everyday!

This is what is giving me hope right now too! Even our Village Theater on Main Street has a sign up. Kinda feels like the twilight zone, but in a good way. :)

[rodeodance]

23. REC

[laugle]

27. Men don't like to feel

like they are being played.........many have called in to talk radio and they sound very angry.

Time will tell just what damage has been done, but I think it looks substantial................

[berni_mccoy]

29. Never heard of Teleresearch.

[murielm99]

33. I have.

http://teleresearchcorp.com/eeo_policy.html

They seem to be basically okay.

I have heard from them because I was called by them once when I was in Indiana. They do automated surveys.

[hayu_lol]

35. Judging from all the snappy retorts on this and other threads...

it would seem to be time to invest in 'crying towel' manufacturing companies.

Go Hillary!

And just for general information, Obama has not yet 'won' the nomination.

[murielm99]

37. Oh please.

I am a Clinton supporter. Let all the Obama supporters snarl at me. They seem to enjoy it.

[Hoof Hearted]

40. But I thought it was a non-issue? I know I heard that somewhere.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

[Mezzo]

41. and then he sent out a DOCTORED vid to smear his opponent 'cause he's too chicken to debate.

[beachmom]

44. That is a lie. You are smearing Obama with a lie. nt

[Greyskye]

47. Prove it...

...or STFU.

[otohara]

43. I Want One of These Courageous Men

fearing a former black pastor of one of the candidates!

Yummy, call me white boyz!

[rocktivity]

45. I think he's going to get those 24 points right back

thanks to Mickey Kantor!

:rofl:
rocknation

[indimuse]

48. K&R!!