Updates Polls, National and State 7/14/2004

[Nicholas_J]

NATIONAL POLLS:
WaPo/ABC: Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 4

Gallup: Kerry 50, Bush 45, Nader 2

Rasmussen: 7/13: Kerry 48, Bush 45

STATE POLLS:
PA: Kerry 46, Bush 41, Nader 5

AR: Bush 49, Kerry 47

FL: Kerry 47, Bush 44

SC: Bush 51, Kerry 44

NC: Bush 54, Kerry 39, Nader

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Well so far, it does not look like selecting Edwards is having a great effect on Kerry's campaign dislodging Bush's stranglehold in the south, though it does look like there is some small effect on national polls. Not as large a bounce as previous selection of running mates has had in the past, but then again, the nation has never been as polarized in the past as it is now. Most polls have pretty consistantly showed that the percentage of crssover voting, Democrat for Republican, Republican for Democrat, has been the smallest in over 60 years, though some polls have shown that since the selection of Edwards, the percentage of Democrats who sstate they will vote for Bush has grown larger than the percent of Republicans who state they will vote for Kerry, and between March and the end of June, the opposite has been the case, with a larger percent of Republicans having stated that they would have voted Democrat, thatn the reverse For a while the crossover vote favored Kerry, almost 2 to one, while some of the latest polls that ask the question show that 88 percent of Democrats will vote for Kerry, andd 10 percent will vote for Bush 2 percent for Someone Else, The Question asked of REpublican show 92 percent voting for Bush and only 8 percent going for Kerry. These crossover numbers have grown larger, as in April, they were down in the 3-6 percent areas for crossover, with very little crossover among Democrats. Hard to say what has caused this change. Perhaps the selection of Edwards has had some effect, but other factors are most certainly involved. At the national level, Edwards certainly is responsible for some of the boost, but at the state level, particularly in the south, and particularly in North Carolina, the selection of Edwards seems to be pushing sotherners in the direction of Bush, or having little effect at all on Bush's kead in the southern states he has firm leads in. Until the sletion of Edwards polls showed Kerry behind Bush, but only in single digits. This first poll in Edwards home state shows Bush leading by double digits. Almost doubling the Bush lead there.

Then again, Kerry's pushing ahead in Pennsylvania looks very much to have been in part, probably largely so, due to the selection of Edwards as running mate. Edwards Blue collar background may have a a significant positive effect for the Kerry campaign in industrialized states where a large percentage of the workers are blue collar workers.

More good news for the Kerry campaign is the failure of the Bush Administrations failure today to push the wedge issue of gay marriage in Congress today, since the majority of the swing voters consider themselves "moderate" the issue of gay marraige is one that they do not consider important during this campaign season and in fact, the Pew Organization just did a ranking of issues by order of importance among swing voters, and an amendment defining marriage at the federal level n order to make state laws allowing gay unions illegal ranked 23rd in their consideration. Just on step above the importance of sending men to Mars. So Kerry/Edwards have won this one, and it is their campaign who are going to define the issues for this election. The economy, and the war in Iraq, where Edwards and Kerry mmost distinctly are holding the best hand. Edwards will be a very strong running mate for Kerry in the industrialized Midwest and Rust Belt, on the issues of the economy. Kerry's string hand will be on foreign relations. A constitutional amendment banning gay marriages and defining marriqage is not only a non starter, among the majority of swing voters, it may have done Bush some deep damage, giving these voters pause, beleiving BUsh has gone over the top, and is far more conservative than even the most conservative swing voter would like.THe perception of BUsh trying to push this wedge issue to center stage will not help him very much either.

[FloridaPat]

1. One thing these polls are not able to gauge is the number of

republicans who are not even going to vote because they hate bush but refuse to vote for a Democrat. Hope their numbers are large.

And btw, only 18% of the eligible voters did vote for bush in 2000. There is that much of a difference between eligible and registered voters. As a nation, we should be ashamed of ourselves.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Republicans

Are much more prone in the end, to vote for whoever is ono their party's ticket than democrats. You see very little argument from Republicans, like you do among Democrats about issued like the "DLC" or the conservative wing of the Democratic Party and the Liberal Wing cropping up among Republicans when it comes time to getting in the ballot box. Democrats are more likely to not vote when the candidate is not lock step in line with their ideas about politics than Republicans who will vote for whoever their party puts up for the most part. The Perot Debacle was an anomaly which primarily brought conservative DEmocarts who had gone over to the REpubican party over to vote for Perot, giving CLiton his chance to win.

[Lexingtonian]

3. It shows Kerry slowly solidifying support

The polling from January until now has all analyzed about the same- split the Undecideds 2:1 in favor of Kerry, and it has consistently pointed to a 52-45-3 Kerry win (at equal/usual turnout).

I think we are seeing a small movement of Green voters in 2000, just ~1% of the electorate but perceptible, moving over to Kerry now that Nader and the Greens have parted ways. That gives Kerry a 53-54% ceiling and, with 2% consistent Third Party voters, a better cushion.

Edwards doesn't seem to be adding conservative leaners to the Kerry polling numbers after all. (It was probably a vain hope to begin with.) But he is definitely a matchup with Bush- those wavering Undecided liberal-leaning swing voters in the South and Midwest are coming home. The 'Edwards effect' seems to me to be not in getting new voters but in getting these not very solid Democratic voters (aka Gore voters in those regions) to commit, and thereby driving Kerry over 50%.

The Great Unknown of this campaign is whether the Bush-Cheney team's Christian Right turnout machinery 1) works out, and 2) can be matched by Democrats in the states where it matters. They'd need to get 10-15% higher turnout of their own than at any other election since, well, about 1960. I don't see them succeeding- the mass delusions/Heartland political mythology that dominated in 2000 and 2002 are pretty well punctured. But I'd guess they can up things a desperate 5-8%- enough to get them to 47% or 48% overall, but that still has them losers by 3-5%.

The Kerry people are looking pretty good. Definitely the Democratic A Team if the grudging acknowledgments out of the Beltway consultant corps is any indicator. They picked Edwards and ratcheted the pain up on Bush/Cheney in a hurry- and the Bush people are squealing. It's not going to get better for them, either....

[papau]

6. Nice graph from the WashPo poll below

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[papau]

5. GOPer Self esteem problems are dealt with in the lounge

:-)

[Pepperbelly]

7. I am afraid that you will have to add a solid 80 IQ points ...

a character transplant, and better rhetorical skills to even pass as fair.