Kerry reduces ads in Missouri, Arizona and the South

[quaoar]

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/9154928.htm?1c

WASHINGTON - Despite promises to expand the election playing field, John Kerry has reduced his ad spending in Missouri, Arizona and throughout the South in the run-up to the Democratic presidential convention.

Kerry's advisers said they were not shrinking their political map, only saving resources for later in the campaign and redirecting ad money to hotly contested states like Florida and Ohio. President Bush's campaign called the strategy a sign of weakness in GOP-leaning territory.

"This whole fiction that they were going to expand the map seems to be falling to the wayside fairly quickly," said Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd.

In his new round of advertising, Kerry has significantly increased his spending in several key states while slightly lowering buys for Missouri and Arizona. Voters in both states will still see plenty of ads, just relatively few compared to other battlegrounds.

In Virginia, the Kerry campaign dramatically reduced its ad buy. Last month, he pulled his ads out of Louisiana and Arkansas.

Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the states are still competitive and called the shift a part of the natural ebb and flow of ad strategies.

[taxidriver]

1. eh, who needs em?

[lachattefolle]

8. Wait a minute

I'm from Arizona and going to a Women For Kerry meetup this weekend. Don't count us out yet, please! I stopped by the Democratic hqs in Sierra Vista today and talked to the guy running it. He thinks Kerry has a good chance in the state and points out it went for Clinton the second time. I just moved here last year so I didn't know that. Also heard that on 4th of July lots of soldiers were coming by to register to vote or to change their party registration from Repug to Democrat. Sierra Vista is home to Fort Huachuca, intel school for the military. The conservative bastions are starting to crumble, hooray! I think some soldiers are sick of getting cheneyed.

[PVnRT]

11. Yeah, that's the attitude

Who the hell cares about all those blacks in the South, right?

[QC]

16. Yeah. And it's not like we actually need any of those Senate seats. n/t

[PVnRT]

27. Oh, hell no

Of course not, they're just a bunch of racist rednecks anyway, right?

[JayS]

25. Or them durn Hispanics.... n/t

n/t

[PVnRT]

26. Nope

As we all know, only whites in the North and on the West Coast count, when it comes to getting the vote, apparently.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

2. The convention is coming up

They're basically going to have free advertising for a little while, this isn't a surprising move.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. That's exactly it. Also a little rope a dope

These states will be barraged after the convention.

[Cha]

3. It's smart strategy and who cares what fucking

matthew dowd thinks?

[Massacure]

4. Smart move for Kerry

Missouri and Arizona doesn't look like they are going to fall into the Kerry column.

The only thing that can happen is that they get better for Kerry, which means Bush has to spend money whilst Kerry doesn't.

[dolstein]

6. "The only thing that can happen is that they get better for Kerry."

Wrong. They could get worse for Kerry. They could easily get worse for Kerry.

[Massacure]

14. Bush already has those states

If it is 51-49 or 60-40 in it, what does it matter as long as Kerry takes the other states?

Edit: maybe kerry does have them though. My bad.

[TheFarseer]

7. that's what I though except

I actually saw Kerry winning Missouri in one poll. It was on electoral-vote.com

[Nicholas_J]

9. Well there is one poll

That has Kerry at 50.1 % Bush at 46.8% with an MoE of 3.3% done between July 6-10th in Missouri but I cant find out which poll it was.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Found it

Latest Zogby Interactive.

ALso has Kerry with a big lead in Florida again, as well as leading in Ohio as well. If Kerry can win these three states and stay ahead where he is, he wins big.

[lanparty]

34. Missouri ?????

This was the state that elected a dead man in lieu of John Ashcroft. I wouldn't count out Missouri.

[troublemaker]

5. "while slightly lowering " n/t

[fujiyama]

10. Arizona

seems to have gotten somewhat tougher. I wouldn't completely give it up, but even with Nader's failure to get on the ballot, the polls have Bush ahead (this also may be because of McCaian campaigning for Bush).

I definetely wouldn't give up AR and MO. Both have Bush up within the margin of error, with leads of two-three points or tied. I remember a Rasmussen poll having Kerry up by one in AR about a few weeks ago.

[lanparty]

35. I would say Arizona is in play ...

McCain is publicly supporting Bush, but you can bet your ass that he'll do anything he can in private to remove Bush from office. If Bush is re-elected, he'll push little bro Jeb to the front of the 2008 line.

Everyone completely misunderstands McCain. He's doing EVERYTHING for the sake of getting the 2008 nomination. In order to do this, he must publicly support the GOP 2004 nominee. Privately, he can do what he wants and undermine Bush. I'd bet there will be a LOT of leaks from McCain's staffers with information embarrasing to Bush.

[3rdCoast Productions]

13. Makes sense... you don't want to overkill the voters

See which states you end up close in, then blitz the ones you have a good shot at.

[sleipnir]

15. There ARE two Americas, the Red and the Blue

It's nice that Kerry reconginzes this fact and abandoned the South and the rest of the Red states.

The guy can win on a "screw the South" approach and I think he should take it and run.

Edwards is a smokescreen and a pretty face, that's about all. I feel he stands little to no chance of being a banner carrier in 2012.

[QC]

17. What about those 5 open senate seats in the South?

Should we just screw those, too?

[sleipnir]

20. Now that's the Senate, not a Presidential race

Kerry is best to be running on the "screw the South" approach, but that doesn't mean we should abandon the Region. It's just that we need to direct more Democratic assistance to counter the Republican threat. Until then, the South is, as a whole, a lost Cause into which we could dump all of the Kerry Warchest, but thankfully will not.

There are pockets of resistance that will help to win some Senate seats, but that is not a Presidential election.

[quaoar]

22. When the Republicans

Continue to control Congress next year because we blew off the South, then don't be surprised when President Kerry has to spend half his time defending himself before congressional investigations and fending off weekly calls for special prosecutors.

So go ahead, blow off the South. That will be seen as arrogant elitism down here and will ensure GOP victories for many years to come.

[lanparty]

36. Only ONE state out of play ....

Mississippi.

Bush's only chance of losing Mississipi is killing a baby on live TV while ass fucking a big black bubba.

[QC]

29. I'm not sure we can break a campaign into neat little parts.

If Democrats here get the impression that the party has officially told them to go Cheney themselves, as would be the case if Kerry decided to ignore the South completely, then we can say goodbye to any hope of controlling Congress. And I think that if the Clinton years taught us anything, it's that having the White House doesn't mean much if you can't do anything in Congress.

Does that mean we should pour all our money into Alabama and Mississippi? No. But it does mean remembering that we need the Democrats who still make up over 40% of even the reddest states.

Besides, surrendering the South means that Bush can spend his whole $200,000,000 in the swing states. Do we really want that?

[sandnsea]

18. VP choices

Those look like states that were targeted based on possible VP selections. Now that the VP is chosen, it looks like they're just regrouping their strategy. Probably see where things are after the convention, and go from there.

[fujiyama]

19. You're probably right

They'll continue to aggressively go after MO and AR, considering the polls in those two states are showing it to be close.

I haven't seen any polls out of LA for a while, but I don't see it as very likely (earlier polls showed Bush with a pretty big lead)...the same with AZ. I hope the dems can keep Breaux's seat.

[MallRat]

23. Save resources for later in the campaign?

I thought that if Kerry takes the $75M in public funds, he can only use THAT money once the convention is over.

I don't get it. Save resources for when?

-MR

[JayS]

24. Let Edwards campaign and run ads down here, not Kerry!

Sorry, but "getting to know Kerry" is a lot like getting to know Aunt Edna's bunions to way too many people out this way. Nails on a chalkboard would go over better.

[Literate Tar Heel]

28. that's what they're doing here in NC

the only Kerry ad I see is the one that shows Edwards giving a speech and talking about Kerry ... Kerry doesn't appear in it at all except in pictures and his voice at the end approving it

[PATRICK]

30. So Bush will lower his spending there

because he is confident of winning? Or will he show his true colors by now trying desperately to secure those states that Kerry is momentarily shifting from?

This is easily spun back against the GOP, but, of course, not in US media.

[DaveSZ]

31. "Blow off the South?"

How do you expect to get anything done in Congress?

[GreenInNC]

32. NC

I am seeing Kerry and Bush ads here.

[Ronin1]

33. Ads in N.C.

The ads you are seeing may be National Buys. My wife works for a ABC Affiliate here in N.C. At her station, Kerry has bought half as much as Bush.

[Literate Tar Heel]

37. no, it's not just that, but

DU has apparently decided I should be silenced for some unknown reason on another thread so I'm not going to say anymore