Early NC Prediction: Obama by 15%

[Bullet1987]

Seriously, Obama should win this state handily due to early voting alone. Anyone who seriously thinks Clinton will win here is kidding themselves. I just wish Indiana was more competitive, though don't they allow Indies to vote or something? I plan on voting Tuesday and expect Obama's name to be called within 30 minutes after the polls close.

[zabet]

1. .

:rofl:

[futureliveshere]

3. Hmm.. Are you cackling when confronted with an uncomfortable truth?

Don't you think it is better to refute with some facts, if you can?

[zabet]

9. Facts about a prediction? That is rich.

I live in NC. I am telling you if Obama wins, it will be in the low, single digits.

15% is laughable. :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[MattNC]

10. it is not unreasonable

I don't expect that big of a margin, but it is not out of the question depending on turnout.

[zabet]

11. All the new voters are not necessarily Obama votes.

We had loads of new voters voting Hillary in our early voting. Our early voting was held in an area that is 67% African American and there wasn't even a single Obama sign at the voting place. Plenty of Hillary signs. It will be interesting to see but, again 15% is laughable considering the Wright episode, the division of the Black Churches over this issue, and Obama losing such ground in the polling.

[MattNC]

12. anecdotal evidence

from one polling site doesn't prove your theory. Black churches also aren't going to abandon Obama over the Wright issue; that's absurd.

Again, I think 15% isn't likely, but it's possible. If he wins blacks 90-10% like he has (and if they're close to 40% of the vote), while getting maybe 40% of the white vote (his floor seems to be about 35%), he'll have a double-digit win.

[zabet]

15. Black Churches as a whole may not abandon him but,

I do know many of the members of the Black Community,(am related to some of them) say they have rethought their vote since Rev. Wright and they question Obama's judgement....and some say they are not going to vote for him now.

[Raine]

17. I'm surprised they allow sign at

polling places, here in CA that's not allowed, they have a law about no electioneering. No one can have signs or pass out literature anywhere near where voting is taking place.

[zabet]

23. They ALWAYS plaster signs all up and down the sidewalk in front

of the building where the voting is taking place here. No one was handing out literature though.

[ClassWarrior]

14. I agree. It'll be single digits.

NGU.

[NotThisTime]

2. I'm sticking with his campaign's expectation of 8

And for those who say he's lost so much ground in the last month because he was up 26, THAT WAS WITH 25% UNDECIDED.... sorry to yell, people overlook that fact LOL...

[MattNC]

13. he was never up 26

even PPP admitted their polling having him up 25 was flawed methodologically.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. take a couple thousand people with ya when you vote !!! nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. ps. hope he gets the nc college vote out !

[caledesi]

6. When do the polls close in NC? nt

[supernova]

20. I believe it's 7:pm on Tuesday

:D

[MADem]

7. So, you have any kind of link, or back up, for that, or are you just guessing? NT

[washingdem]

8. I hope so. I'll take a win by any margin, but more than say 9.2 points would be nice.

[kmsarvis]

16. Ignore citizen jane .........

Obama will most likely win NC by a double digit margin. I live in NC and know my state. All the polls that show the race tight are underestimating African-American turnout which is likely to be around 40%.

[zabet]

24. Lived here all of my life,

except for 1 year in the early 80s. I guess that makes my opinion invalid then since it does not align with yours. :eyes:

[Hoof Hearted]

18. Bookmarked.

[madrchsod]

19. hillary is going to win all the rest of the states

she`s got the big mo today from Guam...nothing is going to stop the hillary express!

[Median Democrat]

21. CNN Says Single Digits

NC is Hillary's Pennsylvania. Lets see if she could do a better job of closing the gap, then Obama did in PA. My take is that if she makes Rev. Wright ads 24/7 with some Osama Bin Ladin ads sprinkled in, she can get a victory.

Gore - "Fear is the enemy of reason."

Corrollary - "Reason can be overcome by fear."

There may very well be good reasons to vote for either Hillary or Obama. However, at this stage of the game, based on the news stories receiving headlines, its not Hillary's healthcare or Obama's economic plan that will gain victory.

[Bright Eyes]

22. NC doesn't count.

Remember? :P

[iamthebandfanman]

25. whats crazy is... it doesnt matter!

because hes already the nominee.

[Raine]

26. Obama 5%

to maybe 10%

[faithfulcitizen]

27. Indiana is completely open to all, so you can imagine! ;(