Polls show key Kerry gains (with Edwards -Tenn, North Carolinia )

[papau]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/07/16/polls_show_key_kerry_gains/

Polls show key Kerry gains
By Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff | July 16, 2004

The selection of Southerner John Edwards as his running mate is providing at least a short-term boost to John F. Kerry's presidential candidacy in Tennessee and North Carolina, states generally considered to be beyond the Democrat's reach in November.

A poll conducted by Zogby International after Kerry introduced the North Carolina senator as his vice presidential pick indicates that the Massachusetts senator was in a flat-out tie with President Bush in Tennessee, with both at 48 percent. A Zogby poll less than a month earlier indicated Bush was leading by 18 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Mason- Dixon/ WRAL-TV poll released yesterday indicated that the Kerry-Edwards ticket was within 3 percentage points of Bush-Cheney in North Carolina, also long considered to be safe territory for the Republicans. Independent polls had indicated that Kerry was trailing Bush in the state by 6 percentage points in May and 7 percentage points in June.<snip>

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, another independent polling firm that conducts 500-voter daily tracking surveys in the presidential race, said: ''If this state is in play or seriously headed toward the Democratic camp, then the Bush campaign is in serious trouble. But I don't see that happening."

But a senior Kerry strategist said the poll may indicate an opportunity for the Democrats to stretch the map, forcing Republicans to expend resources to defend an area thought to be safe.

''Usually what happens is the Republicans lock up their base early and then wrap the noose around the Democrats in the Midwest," said the strategist, who asked not to be named. ''This time it looks like we might be able to turn that around."

© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.

[senseandsensibility]

1. Oh, but

didn't CNN say there was no bounce in the South for Edwards? (Yeah, and they'll keep saying it no matter what the evidence).

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. What I don't understand

is why when the RW pundits repeat this lie, the LW pundits don't bother to point out that it's not true. It get's very frustrating sometimes...

[senseandsensibility]

5. I'll be generous

and say that it's ignorance on their part. They should read DU!

[tom_paine]

8. Becausde the LW pundits are chosen for their weakness, gullibility

and unpreparedness.

Sort of like Joe Lieberman when Cheney lied and lied and LIED with Lieberman nodding away the whole time!

Pundits who WILL reply back are not often invited to have a seat at the various Pravda Roundtables.

[samsingh]

10. yes, but CNN is stupid

and corrupt propaganda.

[WI_DEM]

2. neck and neck in Tennessee

and within the margin of error in NC. We will have some southern victories this time.

[juajen]

15. I agree

As a former resident of the State of Tennessee, I believe it would be a great move to have Kerry/Edwards appear together there in several parts of the state. I think they are now ashamed of not supporting Gore more. This state could be won, I think; and what a sweet victory that would be. Of course, I hope Gore campaigns there, too.

[MasonJar]

4. Tennessee should be mad that the Bushies cheated their native

son out of the election last time. Cat killer Frist was the Bush campaign chairman and he pulled the same stunts as Jebster...as in roadblocks in black neighborhoods, sending blacks info with wrong precinct or wrong date.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Wow. I hadn't heard that before about Tenn.

Anyway, this poll is GREAT news!!!

[AP]

9. Closing 18 pts in 1 month to a tie -- that's amazing.

[jobycom]

6. Bush knows about the bounce

that's why he's hellbent on FMA. He's trying to paint Kerry as a an extremist on abortion and gay rights. That won't help Bush very much outside the south, and may even hurt him in liberal to moderate states, but it helps him in the south.

Bush doesn't care much whether the amendment passes, he's just trying to force Kerry to make a stand so he can plaster the south with flyers saying that Kerry wants homosexuals to marry and wants to kill babies. It's the same thing he did with guns to Gore.

[PVnRT]

11. The traditional thinking

is that the VP candidate doesn't make enough of a difference to really matter in this area. However, judging from comments I've seen on other boards, including a very eloquent defense of him by a Louisianan who says "there is no truer son of the South," it's becoming very clear that people are jumping on board because of Edwards, and only Edwards.

Even if this doesn't necessarily pick up a lot of Southern states, it forces Bush to spend more money down there, leaving other battleground states open for the Democrats.

Who would of thought that the Democrats could do something smart?

[RummyTheDummy]

12. Starting to wonder about Rasmussen

He seemed a little too eager to push the "nothing to see here" angle when talking about North Carolina.

[Ronin1]

13. N.C. will be next to impossible. Bush beat Gore in TN

The Jesse-crats are very conservative. Edwards has kind of been neglecting NC for the last two years. My wife's TV station has received twice the ad money from Bush vs. Kerry. I think Bush is spending heavily to be able to say Edwards did'nt even win in his own state.

[RummyTheDummy]

14. They're spending money in those states for one big reason

Because they know, wisely, that if they slip up and Kerry upsets them in one of those states it could/would cost them the election.

[juajen]

16. I disagree

I think NC showed how pro-Kerry/Edwards they were when 25,000 of them stood in the blazing sun for hours just to cheer them on, even when they couldn't hear or see them. Those were great pictures from NC. I rather think there are a lot of people keeping mum about how they're voting.