Since the margin of errors in the polls are roughly 5 percent (4.5 or so) and the lead that Kerry/Edwards have in polls is roughly 4.5 percent, thats statistically a tie.
Everyone from Charlie Rose, to the various public radio broadcasts, to conservative talks shows point out the fact that since brining Edwards to the campaign, Kerry's lead over Bush has not changed significantly, or at all, really. When you go back to 2000, the bounce that Gore got from Lieberman was about the same, five percent, but in 1992 Clinton got a 16 percent bounce from choosing Gore.
Right after the selection of Edwards, all of the cable media outlets were predicting that Edwards would give a 16-18 point bounce by this point.
The average of the first 6 national polls taken after Edwards was selected was 4.3 percent. The average as of today(8 polls), is 4.9 percent.
The web site I use to check all of the pollsout and their averages is realclearpolitics.com
It is a pretty neutral site, but they printed an article this week ( they print from both liberal and conservative media):
Monday, July 12 2004
EDWARDS BOUNCE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN A DEAD CAT: You've probably heard the saying, "Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough." Well, John Edwards is giving the Kerry campaign a bounce, but it sure isn't that big. I suspect both the Dems and the GOP were expecting something a bit larger.
In the six polls taken since Kerry announced his VP choice on Tuesday, Kerry/Edwards has moved ahead of Bush/Cheney by 5.4% in the head-to-head race. Compared to the average of the last 6 polls conducted prior to Kerry's announcement, that represents a net gain of 4.3%.
It's about the same in the three way race. In the five surveys last week that included Nader/Camejo in the mix, Kerry/Edwards is averaging a 2.2% lead over Bush/Cheney. Compare this to the last five polls leading up to Kerry's announcement and you see a net gain of only 3.6%.<[br />
http://realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_7_12_04_0837.html
There is an article that just Gallop just did on historical bounces and Edwards is pretty much on the low end of the bounce scale> Looking at the scakes also seems to indicate that Democrats tend to get bigger bounces out of choosing their running mate and the convention:
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12310&pg=1
We will have to see what kind of bounce the convention gets for Kerry.
Overall the relatively small bounce that resulted from the selection of Edwards may indicate a lot less about Edwards and a lot more about the polarization that this campaign is indicating exists in the country. Pretty much everyone has made up their minds as to who they are going to vote for, and those who have not constitute one of the smallest percentages of undecided swing voters available during any campaign in recent presidential election history.
WHich is pretty good for Kerry/Edwards if my premise is correct. For Kerry/Edwards to get this king of bump with so few undecided people left would indicate that the lead that Kerry /Edwards have now is a lead that will not erode iver the next 3 and a half months.