NATIONAL TREND AND ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST

[TruthIsAll]

NATIONAL TREND AND ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST		

LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS		
Total Votes (millions)                         		
Dem	138.75	 52.60 
Rep	125.03	 47.40 

STATE POLLING DATA SOURCE		
 www.electoral-vote.com                         		



ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY					

Sensitivity        Vote%	 AvgEV  MaxEV 	MinEV
Simulation I					
Kerry%Und	60%				
Kerry wins	95	51.94%	314	376	223
Bush wins	5	48.06%	224	315	162
					
Simulation II					
Kerry%Und 	70%				
Kerry wins	99	52.85%	328	389	260
Bush wins	1	47.15%	210	278	149
					
Simulation III						
Kerry%Und	80%					
Kerry wins	100	53.77%	348	409	277	
Bush wins	0	46.23%	190	261	129	



NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING TREND						

 Data source: PollingReport.com    						
IBD,ABC,NWK,ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME						

	Average Trend	Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.50	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74

Undecided/other alloc. to Kerry:70.0%			

Kerry Projection = Kerry poll avg + allocation x
other/undecided
		=49.57+ 0.70 x (100 - (49.57+44.29))
		=49.57+ 0.70 x 6.14
		=49.57+4.298 = 53.87



		ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST 											


Simulation II
70% Undecided/other to Kerry

..... Wins...Pct.....Avg EV Max EV  Min EV					
Kerry	99	52.85%	328	389	260						
Bush	1	47.15%	210	278	149						


	Last 3												
	Elect.	Proj.	Kerry	Trials									
State	Dem%	Kerry%	Pr(win)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
AL	44.8	45.0	1.0%										
AK	37.6	40.7	0.1%										
AZ	48.8	47.2	16.4%	10			10						
AR	55.2	50.6	55.8%	6					6	6		6	6
CA	57.4	57.2	99.0%	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
CO	48.8	49.3	41.4%	9				9		9			
CT	57.7	62.6	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	53.3	88.4%	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
GA	47.6	45.9	1.0%										
HI	59.0	60.9	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.1%										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.0%	21	21	21	21		21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	1.0%										
IA	51.8	53.6	95.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	0.1%										
KY	46.7	45.3	1.0%							8			
LA	49.2	49.0	37.5%			9			9	9	9		9
ME	57.1	52.3	76.9%		4	4		4	4	4			4
MD	57.8	58.6	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.3	99.0%	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.2	97.5%	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	53.3	88.4%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.1%										
MO	52.5	52.1	75.0%	11				11		11	11	11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	0.1%										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.1%										
NV	49.9	51.4	65.4%	5		5	5	5			5		5
NH	51.7	56.7	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
NJ	56.5	56.6	99.0%	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3	99.0%	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	66.4	99.0%	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	
NC	46.6	49.9	48.5%	15		15		15	15		15		
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1%										
OH	50.8	51.1	61.5%	20	20	20	20	20				20	
OK	42.8	35.2	0.1%										
OR	53.6	56.2	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	97.5%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
SC	44.4	47.5	20.2%			8				8			
SD	44.5	44.8	0.1%										
TN	50.5	50.8	57.7%	11	11	11	11	11	11		11	11	
TX	44.3	42.6	0.1%										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.1%										
VT	59.4	60.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	31.7%	13	13		13	13			13		
WA	55.9	55.1	99.0%	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV*	54.0	47.2	16.4%		5					5			
WI	52.7	51.3	65.4%	10	10		10		10	10	10		10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.1%										
													
Avg	52.6	52.85%	-	387	340	349	346	344	332	347	351	325	291
				

[shockingelk]

1. How abouts cookin' that down fer us? n/t

[foo_bar]

2. Kerry wins

[Lefty Pragmatist]

3. Interesting

1. Is this your program, or is it public?

2. Does it live somewhere we can mess about with it?

3. If it's not public but it's small, would you mind emailing it?

4. If not, can you post the trial results of a 55% Kerry take of the Undecided/Others?

5. Why does WV have an "*"?

[TruthIsAll]

8. Answers

1. Is this your program, or is it public?
Mine.

2. Does it live somewhere we can mess about with it?
On my hard drive. No can do.

3. If it's not public but it's small, would you mind emailing it?
Sorry. Pride of ownership.

4. If not, can you post the trial results of a 55% Kerry take of the Undecided/Others?

Kerry allocation: 55% of undecided/other votes.
Kerry won 93 trials with 51.54% of the vote.
Kerry's average EV 305 electoral votes.
Maximum EV: 351
Minimum EV: 257



5. Why does WV have an "*"?

Forgot to remove it. At one time I wanted to indicate battleground states with an *.

[Gman]

4. TIA...

is this the same data you posted yesterday?

Help me understand, again, what you're doing here. The way I understand this is that you're using a Monte Carlo simulation shooting random numbers along a specific curve to simulate how the undecideds will fall based on past election info. Then are those figures aded to the running averages in each state to give a final percent? Do you also use historic voter turnout numbers for each state to forecast each state? I don't know why you'd need to do this since you're working with actual percentages and it shouldn't matter in a state if 100 or 10,000,000 people turned out to vote, but I'm thinking out loud now.

Good work. Its glad to see another math geek like me come out every now and then!

[TruthIsAll]

9. Updated poll data, model revised and answers for you.

You:
Help me understand, again, what you're doing here. The way I understand this is that you're using a Monte Carlo simulation shooting random numbers along a specific curve to simulate how the undecideds will fall based on past election info. Then are those figures added to the running averages in each state to give a final percent?

Me:
I am not using random numbers for undecideds. I apply an allocation factor (60%, 70%, 80%) to the Kerry poll numbers for each state. I use random numbers applied to the +/- 4% MoE and the spread between Kerry and Bush.

After applying the undecided allocation, if Kerry leads Bush by 20% in a state, then he has a 99.9% chance of winning, since he is far beyond the MoE.

If they are tied 50/50, then they each have a 50% chance of winning.

The purpose of the random number is to simulate 100 possible outcomes. See the simulation analysis for the probabilities of winning each state and check the number of times out of the first 10 trials that Kerry won the state.

If the probability is 99%, he probably won all ten trials.
If the probability is 50%, he probably won about 4-6 trials.

You:
Do you also use historic voter turnout numbers for each state to forecast each state?

Me:
Yes. I calculate the states proportion of the total vote over the last three elections. I do this to enable me to compute a weighted Kerry national %.

You:
I don't know why you'd need to do this since you're working with actual percentages and it shouldn't matter in a state if 100 or 10,000,000 people turned out to vote, but I'm thinking out loud now.

Me:
It DOES matter. Here's why.

For simplicity, assume there are two states in the country.

Example:
State 1 has 1 million votes, and Kerry gets 60%.
State 2 has 2 million votes, and Kerry gets 50%.

Kerry's national vote % is NOT 55%.
We need to use the compute his weighted voting %.

There are 3 million total votes.

Kerry gets .6 mm from state 1
Kerry gets 1 mm from state 2

His total is 1.6 mm votes.

Therefore, his national vote % is 1.6 / 3 = 53.333%

[TexasSissy]

5. As always, thanks for keeping us posted. Looking good!

[librechik]

6. kick in honor of TIA's magnificent obsession

with the #s.

:loveya:

[TruthIsAll]

7. TIA ELECTION FORECAST MODELS: Kerry 52.92%, 330EV

 
TIA NATIONAL POLLING PROJECTION MODEL						
Kerry proj.	53.87%	of two-party vote.				

TIA FORECAST SIMULATION MODEL (STATE POLLING DATA)						
State Poll Data Source: Electoral-Vote.com as
of			7/18/2004			

Kerry Base Case Forecast Summary (see below)						
Probability of Win: 		100%				
Vote Percentage:		52.92%	of two-party vote			
Electoral Votes: 		330	(average of 100 trials)			
Simulation Wins: 		100	of 100 trial runs			
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY						
				
Data is downloaded to Excel for the forecasting model.				
One hundred (100)  trials are run in each simulation.				
				
Simulation I: Conservative Case 				
Kerry allocation: 	60%	of undecided/other votes.		
Kerry won 	96	trials with 	52.00%	of the vote.
Kerry won an average of		311	electoral votes.	
His maximum total was		371		
His minimum was total		233		
				
Simulation II: Most likely Case 				
Kerry allocation: 	70%	of undecided/other votes.		
Kerry won 	100	trials with 	52.92%	of the vote.
Kerry won an average of		330	electoral votes.	
His maximum total was		362		
His minimum was total		283					
							
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 							
Kerry allocation: 	80%	of undecided/other votes.					
Kerry won 	100	trials with 	53.83%	of the vote.			
Kerry won an average of		349	electoral votes.				
His maximum total was		401					
His minimum was total		297					
							
							

							
Compare to Other Election Predictors:							
Site	Kerry	Bush					
EP	291	247					
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html							
EVP	292	246		
http://www.electoral-vote.com/				
MyDD	316	222		
http://www.mydd.com/outlook/president				
R04	264	261		
http://www.race2004.net/				
Rasm	247	203		
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.75	52.60%		
Rep	125.03	47.40%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.40	48	na	na	na	na	45	na	na	45	50	49
												
												
												
												
						
TIA NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY						
						
The data source is PollingReport.com    						
Monthly polling data from: 						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
						
						
The projection is based on latest month average of the ten
polls.						
The average is adjusted by allocating the undecided/other
voters to Kerry and Bush..						
Assume 70% of undecided/others are allocated to Kerry.						
						
	Poll Averages			Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.50	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75		
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60		
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36		
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28		
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74		
								
								
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:								
10-Poll Avg 	49.57							
+ allocation	4.30							
= Projection:	53.87	% of total vote.						
								
								
TIA ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..								

Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted													
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.													

The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread between Kerry and Bush, compared to the
MoE. 													
Obviously, the greater the spread, the greater the
probability Kerry will win the state.													


Simulation II	70%	Undecided/other to Kerry											
Summary	Wins	Pct	Avg EV	Max EV	Min EV								
Kerry	100	52.92%	330	362	283								
Bush	0	47.08%	208	255	176								


State	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	Ten EV Simulation Trials									
	Dem%	Kerry%	Kerry	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
	52.60%	52.92%	Win	295	348	342	325	292	327	350	341	347	334
													
AL	44.8	45.0	1.0%										
AK	37.6	40.7	0.1%										
AZ	48.8	47.2	16.4%						10		10		
AR	55.2	50.6	55.8%	6	6	6		6	6				6
CA	57.4	57.2	99.0%	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
CO	48.8	49.3	41.4%		9	9			9	9			9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	
DC	90.3	90.4	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	53.3	88.4%		27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
GA	47.6	45.9	1.0%										
HI	59.0	60.9	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.1%										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.0%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	1.0%										
IA	51.8	53.6	95.0%	7	7	7	7		7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	0.1%										
KY	46.7	45.3	1.0%										
LA	49.2	49.0	37.5%	9			9				9	9	
ME	57.1	52.3	76.9%	4	4	4	4		4	4	4	4	4
MD	57.8	58.6	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.3	99.0%	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.2	97.5%	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	53.3	88.4%	10	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.1%										
MO	52.5	52.1	75.0%	11	11	11		11	11	11	11	11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	0.1%										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.1%										
NV	49.9	51.4	65.4%	5		5	5	5			5	5	5
NH	51.7	56.7	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
NJ	56.5	56.6	99.0%	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3	99.0%	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	66.4	99.0%	31	31	31	31	31		31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	48.9	37.5%		15				15	15	15		15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1%										
OH	50.8	51.1	61.5%			20	20					20	
OK	42.8	35.2	0.1%										
OR	53.6	56.2	99.0%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	97.5%	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	99.0%	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
SC	44.4	47.5	20.2%										
SD	44.5	44.8	0.1%										
TN	50.5	50.8	57.7%		11				11	11		11	
TX	44.3	42.6	0.1%										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.1%										
VT	59.4	60.1	99.0%	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	31.7%							13			
WA	55.9	55.1	99.0%	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	47.2	16.4%		5				5				
WI	52.7	55.0	99.0%	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.1%