Bush* Strengths

[charlyvi]

Chris Bowers, over at mydd (weblog) has an interesting post about the strengths * has going into the election, especially after the repub convention. Here are his main points:

1. Starting in August, Bush will have a significant financial advantage. Kerry will be reduced to $75M, and the 527's will no longer be able to run their negative Bush ads. At the same time, 2. 2. Bush will be able to spend as much as he wants in August, and then will still have another $75M following the GOP convention.
3. Bush could receive a significant convention bounce. Not all convention bounces are the same, and there remains the possibility that Bush's convention bounce will be significantly higher than Kerry's.
4. Media coverage of Kerry is more negative than Bush. While a recent study from the Project for Excellence in Journalism showed that coverage of Bush was negative by a margin of 3-1, coverage of Kerry was negative by a margin of 5-1. Over three and a half months, that could take a significant toll. It could also really hurt Kerry when post-debate spin starts flying.
5. Bush's job approval numbers are still hovering around 50%. See Professor Pollkatz's chart. If Bush were to rise just a few points, he would be in a pretty decent re-elect position.
6. Bush always stays on message during debates. We have all seen it a thousand times--no matter what question Bush is asked, he is always able to talk past the question and stay on his talking points during his response (even if it requires a non-sequitor). Considering the crappy format of modern debates, this will make it very difficult for Kerry to "win" any of the debates.
7. Gas prices could drop significantly. Remember Jerome's chart a couple weeks back? It is entirely possible that little else matters in this election and low October oil prices could almost single-handedly lead to Bush's re-election.
8. Bin Laden remains at large, and the Bush administration is trying to capture him at the best moment possible for shrub's re-election campaign. The ol' July surprise.

Here's the link: http://www.mydd.com/

His main point is that we cannot fall victim to hubris. It's worth a read. Let's have at it!

[readmylips]

1. His from super rich, world influencial bush family....

other than that, he's just a jerk.

[wolfgirl]

2. We absolutely

must stay on target and be more vocal as the election draws closer. Bush & Co stole one election and they plan on stealing this one. I still get chills remembering Bush say on MTP, he was going to win, no doubt, no hesitation.

:dem:

[David Dunham]

3. Half the country dislikes Bush. Therefore, we have a good chance.

[charlyvi]

4. True, True

But, like Chris, I worry about what happens from the Repub convention through the election. These times are too crazy to count on past experience.

[fujiyama]

5. This does worry me

Kerry's ads and ability to fight back have been vital in him being competetive this election so far.

I think we might expect any bounce from the convention for Kerry to fade somewhat quickly, as Bush fires another extremely nasty round of negative ads at that time...The ads are usually stupid, but are effective when not challenged. When Kerry was short on money immediately after winning the primaries, Bush's ads brought his numbers down. The same can happen after the convention. They may not end up making Bush's number go up, but it may increase Kerry's unfavorabilities and plant doubts in people's minds.

But I still don't expect a huge bounce for Bush after the GOP convention either.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

6. Hard to imagine either candidate getting much of a convention bounce.

A large % of the population is "beyond reason" committed to one side or the other -- nothing can convince them to change. The remainder probably doesn't watch the conventions, and the media coverage of them is always scrupulously Crossfire-like -- in lieu of "balance," they just have a Dem hack and a GOP hack come on to apply equal and opposite spin.

I really think a given election is an incumbent's to lose, and up till now Bush has been doing everything in his power to lose this one. If Kerry were a messiah-like charismatic candidate, he might change that, but he's basically a solid technocrat -- a shade less geeky than Dukakis -- so odds are he's a cipher: nithing he does or says will either capsize the boat or move it forward.

I'm tempted to say Bush's money is less a factor than we'd suppose from history. It kicks in at the end, when attitudes have hardened even more, and the candidates have already been defined (flipflopping/heroic vs moronic/god-fearin'). And there's all sorts of free publicity for the candidatesin the final two months, when everybody will be obsessed with the electoral math.

[Eric J in MN]

7. We should donate to the DNC in the final months since we can't

give to Kerry-Edwards after July 29 and the 527s can't run ads in the last 2 months before the election (correct me if I'm wrong about that last point.)