What 's going on in Arizona!!?--Bush up by 12-points

[WI_DEM]

There was a poll last week which had Bush up by 10 in Arizona and now this poll by Survey USA has him up by 12--53-41 over Kerry. +/- 3.6%
What is up with this? I thought that Arizona was a toss-up state? Heck Survey USA has Kerry in a better position in South Carolina--trailing by only 7-points than in Arizona.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Prolly McCain's trolling.

[Wright Patman]

2. Haven't a lot of the taxed-off

Californians moved to Arizona? This group of immigrants would be likely to vote 90 percent or more for Shrubco.

[sniffa]

3. mccain doesn't think shrub wiLL win though

mccain has said that the FMA finaLLy pushed arizona's repubs. (predominantLy moderates) over the edge. they're not supporting bush, and more importantLy, are not contributing money to the bush campaign.

so i tend not to trust the poLL too much.

[King of New Orleans]

4. Odd thing about the Survey USA poll

is that it has Kerry leading 46-40 among African-Americans (vs a normally 80%+ number for the Democrat)

and has a 48-48 tie among Hispanic voters (I don't know what the normal demographic split is for this group in Ariz. though I'm sure they generally vote Democratic).

Both of those subsets look pretty off, probably pulling the poll off quite a bit.


McCain probably does have a modest effect among voters in the state too.

[WI_DEM]

5. yeah those seem off

No way Bush will get 40% of AA vote or even 48% of Latino vote.

[qazplm]

6. yeah but the last THREE polls

each have Bush up by 12%.

Sometimes it just goes that way, it is STILL way too early to look at polls for much more than amusement.

With the DNC, RNC, and debates still to come polls could look much different after each.

And that's not counting outside events.

[King of New Orleans]

9. I've actually looked up the 2000 exit poll results

2000 exit poll (CNN)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html

Whites 63-37 Bush
Hispanics 73-27 Gore
Other (Asians, Native Americans, African Americans) 67-33 Gore


Current Survey USA poll
Whites 56-39 Bush
Hispanics 48-48
African Americans 46-40 Kerry
Asians/others 49-36 Kerry


So Kerry is actually doing better with White voters than Gore in 2000 (at least according to Survey USA. Either he's doing much worse with Hispanics or Survey USA is having trouble polling them.

Survey USA uses an automated system I believe, whether that impacts their ability to poll effectively in multilingual neighberhoods I don't know.

[osaMABUSh]

13. Gore won the black vote: 90% to 9% there is no way in hell

it's only 46 - 40 Kerry.

In fact because of FLA and the NAACP flap I think Kerry will get at least the amount Gore got.

[demosincebirth]

10. Very fishy!

[LizW]

7. Yeah, there's something wacky about this poll

I'll bet we see another one soon that differs from this one.

[Zomby Woof]

20. based on the scoop here

Bush's support has remained steady, but it's the undecideds who went back on Kerry. I have no idea if that's true, but I do know we need to help Kerry get all the undecideds he can back in his court - nationwide.

[donsu]

8. who believes polls?

nt

[Cybergata]

11. With the exception of Flagstaff....

Arizona is a very conservative state. I'm not sure if they every accepted Martin Luther King day as a holiday, but if they did, they were one of the last.

:hippie:

[Zomby Woof]

19. Flag is a liberal-leaning island, thank gawd

Yeah, AZ finally went along with the MLK holiday. One thing I am glad we didn't adopt was daylight savings. Having lived in nowhere but Daylight Savings areas before, it is the best not dealing with it. :-)

[Cybergata]

21. I am so envious of you folks in Arizona...

for not using daylight saving time. I'm next door to you in New Mexico, and why we want another hour light and heat is beyond me. I always feel like I'm being smashed into a wall ever time DLS comes around, and don't recover until the last week of October when we go back to real time.

:hippie:

[Zomby Woof]

22. well hi there

Next-door neighbor! :hi:

[Leilani]

12. Arizona is in an uproar about illegal immigration

& what it is costing the state, thus the taxpayers.

I read last week that Kerry s recent speeches about amnesties upset many in Arizona, & meant he would not carry it.

There is a ballot initiative about limiting benefits for illegals.
I gather that illegal crossings have declined in Texas & Cal, due to tighter border controls, which has moved the majority of people to Arizona. And the state is under pressure, & people are angry.

Maybe an Arizona DUer knows more about this.

Also, McCain endorsing Bush probably boosted Bush/Cheney numbers.

[blondeatlast]

27. Less of an uproar than the press would have you believe...

I'm 33 year Zonie.

Citizens hate illegal immigration, to be sure, but business (SURPRISE!) doesn't. Tourism is major here, and they will never allow any REAL reform to occur--it's a source of way too much cheap labor.

It's like abortion--we'll talk a lot about changing things, but nothing relevant will ever happen, because it would be political suicide here.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

14. OTOH,

there aint a lot of blacks in AZ, so that won't matter. My fiancee is from there, and there was exactly one black family in her entire town (which goes Republican 90-10 every time). Mexican-Americans vote Dem when they vote, which isn't often.

AZ is not Dem country. They oppose our social programs and aren't wild about our economic programs. It's electoral dead weight, like the deep south, Alaska, and Utah. In fact, UA and other AZ institutions are dominated by the Mormon Church, so think of it as a hotter, poorer, uglier, less educated Utah.

[Name removed]

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[Tansy_Gold]

17. I beg to differ --- but not much

UofA and Tucson in general are much more liberal than the rest of AZ; Phoenix is quite conservative. This is, after all, the area that elected J.D. Hayworth.

AZ does not have a large African-American population, and the large Hispanic population has never been as energized to vote as it could be. However, Arizona does produce Hispanic politicians -- Raul Grijalva of Tucson and Ed Pastor of (west & south) Phoenix to name just two.

The LDS church is VERY powerful, and there is also a huge military establishment here with a bazillion retired military officers (not enlisted).

Also, property rights -- ranchers and developers -- still trump human and environmental rights in this state. So while (some of) the ranchers scream about the devastation the undocumented border crossers create on their land, they don't mind paying their "Messican" laborers starvation wages. (Oh, yes, and never mind the devastation those perfectly legal cattle do to fragile desert ecosystems.)

I came to Arizona almost 20 years ago and I love it, but the politics still suck.

That said, I also think this poll is bogus. boosh may still win AZ, but I don't think it's gonna be by any 12 points.

[Zomby Woof]

18. the southern half of AZ maybe

But having been through Utah, which only has the national parks in its southern half to recommend it, I would give the political edge to AZ, which did go with Clinton in '96, has a Dem governor, and is Dem-leaning in Tucson in the south and Flagstaff to the north.

Utah is hell otherwise. Ugly, pure, backwards hell. Same goes for PHX here, but as I said, we have a few Dems in power here and there.

Northern AZ is beautiful enough to win out over its ugly companion to the north.

Or in other words, FUCK Utah, which will vote Dem when purple monkeys fly out of my ass.

[Zomby Woof]

16. it's PHX's fault

The fucking HEAT melts brains.

[blondeatlast]

28. AHEM!

My brain is fine, thank you--and my building was on emergency energy savings last week.


Phoenix is not yet the source of all that is evil--that is north Scottsdale (as an original south Scottsdaler, I can say this with conviction--those people are severely warped!)

[Zomby Woof]

29. well duh!

YOU (and Catshrink) are the exception because, well, duh! :D

The north end of Scottsdale is full of nazis. Can't stand the plastic mall and concrete "culture". You can get run down by a Hummer at ANYTIME.

[fujiyama]

23. It was always a longshot

I do think that 12 points is a bit much though. Maybe if the state were to get a lot closer, the libertarian candidate could draw some votes from Bush, but I still think it's a tough state for dems to take.

[GreenArrow]

24. Clark would have helped here and throughout

the Southwest/ Mountain west.

[wish_I_could_vote]

25. doesn't this same poll

have Bush and Kerry almost tied in California?

[Kevin Spidel]

26. hate messaging

from Anti-Clean Elections, to Rasist PAN initiative on imigration, the neocons are coming out in full force in AZ to make all the radical right wingsers come out in mass.

[RamboLiberal]

30. Who to believe - Poll out tonight has Kerry up by a point

see thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x583187