CBS Poll: Clinton and Obama NECK&NECK among registered Democrats

[McCamy Taylor]

I believe that an educated voter is an empowered voter. So, i just could not let this misleading thread header stand by itself. Someone else has posted that a CBS poll shows Obama now leading Clinton by 12 points. Everyone will assume that this means among Democratic voters in a nationwide poll because that is what everyone measures. And since all the other polls have shown them neck and neck, this is a big deal .

But I read that poll. Among registered Democrats, Obama and Clinton are neck and neck.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/MAY08A-Politics.pdf

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml

However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week.

The 12 point spread is only among a subgroup who are yet to vote or who have voted. That number was 8 points a few days ago, so it has only risen slightly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Gallup/USA now shows Clinton ahead by 7 points.

Rassmussen, which uses likely Dem voters shows a tie.

CNN also has a tie.

So, I think that this is a case of a cherry picked poll result from a poll being used for a thread header for a Pep rally effect, and people here need to be very careful about using that result to plot political strategy.

[JoFerret]

1. Good thinking

.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. I read it as a 12 point lead over the entire sample.

But then again I can read.

[McCamy Taylor]

4. Is this what you read?

Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased -- he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago.

[Warren Stupidity]

9. yeah that is what I read

"Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased -- he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago.

However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week."

12 points over the entire sample of democratic primary voters, tied with 'registered democrats'. In fact the more I look at this poll the worse it looks for your candidate. I also read this:

"Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest independents support McCain by five points. However, more Democrats say they will vote Clinton in the fall than say they will vote for Obama."

Ooops.

[boston bean]

12. With a sample of 268 or so people, it's a farce!

[cboy4]

3. Hold on.

:popcorn:

Okay go!

Yet another reason to count all the votes.

[cali]

5. Actually, no. I assumed it meant among all voters.

And you don't know what everyone will assume. Seems rather arrogant and elitist to think you would.

"Everyone will assume that this means among Democratic voters in a nationwide poll because that is what everyone measures"

[McCamy Taylor]

7. Then you would have been even more off, because this number is only

Democratic voters who have actually voted or say they will vote. It does not include Independents or Republicans who also make up the group of all voters.

People just are not specific enough.

[McCamy Taylor]

6. Also note Really (Not) Clear Politics average different results.

Polls that include all registered Dems. Likely to vote Dems. Dems who have voted in primaries or who say they are going to vote.

How can this be scientific? Really (Not) Clear needs to stop the bullshit averaging (which just encourages people like Newsweek and CBS/NYT to come out with weird outlier results that will skew the average) and simply report each poll number.

Ok, I will get off my survey soap box. If someone would just me some money, I could do some serious political surveys.

[rodeodance]

8. cbs is am --used this poll. I think the wording they used was 'virtual tie"

[hokies4ever]

10. Too bad the polls don't matter

in determining the Dem primary nominee. I guess Hillary is going to have to go back to her 2012 plan.

[Oleladylib]

11. Together they win...separate they lose..it's rather simple

[bowens43]

14. any ticket that includes hillary loses..it's as simple as that.

[flpoljunkie]

13. Reckon you didn't like this part of the poll, either...

He (Obama) now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51% to 40%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/04/nytcbs_poll_obama_rebounds_nationally.html

[remember2000forever]

16. Polls Are Manipulated By The Powers That Be

These Powers Want A Tight Race, Not A Landslide. We The People Should Not Believe Our Eyes That Obama Has Surged Ahead And Caught The Imagination Of We The People. Check Out The Rallies! So, Our Votes Will Once Again Be Manipulated, Just Like The Polls, To Get The Desired Results Of These Powers That Be. No Landslides Allowed!

[berni_mccoy]

18. Desperate response.

[Vinca]

15. But, but, but . . . the posting above this says Obama is tanking.

:rofl:

[berni_mccoy]

17. Your Gallup poll is out of date. The latest shows Obama ahead by 4.

[MadBadger]

19. The Official number is 12 points. Because most races allow independents and some Repukes to vote.

[Quixote1818]

20. Kick

[FlaGranny]

21. Try as you might, I don't believe

you will convince anyone Hillary has a better chance than Obama in the GE. The worst thing the republicans have against Obama is associating him with things acquaintances have said or done. When they come out in the fall with guns blazing on things Clinton HERSELF has been involved in, hold onto your hat. If the media keeps fawning over McStupid, he might have a slim chance in November.

Hillary and her campaign are convincing Obama supporters every single day that they've made the right choice. We want inclusive, not divisive. If you don't think Hillary is divisive, just look at what her campaign has done to those of us who once considered voting for her. She has disappointed me.