How Is Kerry Doing In Comparison To Other Challengers

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Here's the link to Gallup....


It appears all challengers who came out of their conventions with a lead went on to win....

http://gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1210

[Merusault]

1. 2004 bears some similarities to '80 and '92

I think that it's very possible that the post-convention bounce for K/E will hold all the way through to November, like Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992. If the Repub convention doesn't bring Bush within a few points or ahead, Kerry will win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Hope So

NT

[lancdem]

3. That's right

and Kerry's ahead even before the convention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. It's A Little Scary...

Too good to be true....

[IndianaGreen]

4. Kerry has a lead before the Convention

I don't think that has happened too often in the past. We would have to look at FDR to see something similar.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. In 1964 LBJ Was Beating Goldwater By 49% At One Point..

Imagine your candidate is down by 49%....

[Gothmog]

7. News is encouraging but lets not get over confident

It is still a long way to November 2 and we can not afford to get over confident. Rove has dirty tricks planned and Bush will not go away without a fight.

That being said, these are nice trends and facts.

[JI7]

8. agree

shows we are on the right path but we have to still keep aware and ready to deal with whatever may happen .

[The Zanti Regent]

9. ...except Dukakis

Remember when Mike was 18 points up over Bush?

Then came Willie Horton, and Bernie Shaw's knife in the back called THE KITTY QUESTION...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Duke Wasn't The Challenger

but your point is well taken....

[notbush]

23. The Duke wasn't the challenger??????

He sure wasn't the incumbent.

[salonghorn70]

16. It Wasn't Shaw's Fault

It was a fair question. Dukakis stabbed himself in the back. Dukakis was possibly one of the worst candidates that we have ever nominated. He did not have a clue about how to run a Presidential campaign.

[osaMABUSh]

10. I don't see the link/article that you refer to

Anyway, we do have history on our side. The voters are down on Bush and once they find Kerry acceptable it's game, set, and match.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Just click on it.....

NT

[osaMABUSh]

14. this is all I get (nothing about this topic)

Gallup Poll Election History
The World's Oldest and Most Accurate Public Opinion Poll
The Gallup Poll has reported the standings and comparative strengths of U.S. presidential candidates on a continuous basis since the organization's founding in 1935.
The record of accuracy achieved by Gallup in these "horse-race" or "head-to head" measurements is unsurpassed. For example, in the sixteen presidential elections since 1936, the deviation between Gallup's final pre-election survey figures and the actual election results is 2.2% and, since 1960, only 1.5%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Look To The Left Under Election History

NT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Look To The Left Under Election History

NT

[osaMABUSh]

17. Ok, thanks. One more stupid question:

What is NT ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Don't Know

Just when people leave this part blank they put NT....

[osaMABUSh]

21. That's beautiful - an acronym that means nothing

[Kal Belgarion]

27. NT means "No Text [in the message]" (NT)

[Downtown Hound]

25. Here's a little something that might help you

dug.seattleactivist.org/#1

It's a glossary of DU terms. NT means No text. It implies that the central theme of the post is all in the headline, and that nothing more needs to be said.

[Inland]

13. Yeah, but this year is weird

Anti Bush sentiment, right wing or flaccid media, a number of identifiable battleground states, and an adminstration that is so craven and amoral that we can't even imagine how it will manipulate the election. Its going to be a unique election.

[salonghorn70]

18. Fascinating Stuff

If you are a political junkie like me, then all of that history is just fascinating. Sometimes we forget that the vote in 1980 was 47-44-8.Anderson, a moderate Repub, was the Nadar of his day?

[Hippo_Tron]

20. My dad has an interesting opinion on this

Despite the fact that Kerry is up and that Bush is having trouble, he thinks that it will be dead even by the time November 2 rolls around. His theory is based on the fact that we are dealing with the lowest and most well funded right wing attack machine ever. There is no attack or tactic that is too low for these people. He also thinks that a week before the election he'll have Tom Ridge raise the threat level to red and claim that there are imminent threats on polling places in highly democratic areas. These poll numbers are encouraging, especially since this is a president who once had 70% approval ratings, but we need to stay on our guard and not let up until the polls close on November 2nd.

[osaMABUSh]

22. If they roll Tom (Mr. Excitement) Ridge out a week before the

election then that'll be a sign of true desperation.

The recent attempt by Ridge to scare us about Election Day terra was widely seen as politically motivated to take Kerry/Edwards out of the spotlight.

[fujiyama]

24. I figure

as long as no major events occur (pulling Osama out, terrorist attack that isn't averted, free and fair elections in FL as well as elsewhere), then Kerry should win. Kerry has the edge in the EC right now, but it's still very close.

Plus, as we all know the people (if you can call them that) in office right now are willing to go at any length. I'm not a MIHOPer, but I wouldn't be surprised if a terrorist attack takes place at a convenient time (just ignore any warnings) or if they pull Osama out of their hat (payback for all the military aid and debt relief the administration has given Pakistan).

[Nicholas_J]

26. Another thing has happened that is sort of unprecedented

A recent Rasmussen polls is now showing that even people who plan to vote for Bush beleive that Kerry is going to beat him. There has never been a case in which a plurality of those who planned to vote for the incumbent themselves beleived that their candidate would lose to the opposition. This is a serious problem for Bush. A majority of his own supporters beleve that Kerry will beat him. When your own supporters lose faith in your ability to win you are going to lose.