Kerry has 18 states for 254 electoral votes
13 states strongly for Kerry for 201 EV.
5 States leaning towards Kerry for 50 EV
Bush has 20 states for 183 electoral votes
14 States strongly for Bush for 124 EV
5 States leaning towards Bush for 59 EV
7 states are too close to call for 83 EV
Kerry ahead in Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, Florida, For 61 EV
Bush ahead in Nevada for 5 electoral votes
Kerry and Bush exactly even in Tennessee for that states 11 EV
Six states where no pollin has been done for 21 EV
This leave Kerry sitting on 305 electoral votes. He could lose his lead in either Ohio OR Florida, the two very close states with the largest number of electoral votes and still be winning in the electoral college. All he needs is 17 Electoral votes out of the states too close to call to win the presidency by one electoral vote. Right now, Bush could win every state that has not polled, and take away 2/3rds of the electoral votes from Kerry n the states too close to decide, and Kerry would still beat him in the electoral college.
Things are looking up for Kerry.
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htmProjections are another story:
Electoral-vote.com has Kerry winning 322 EV, Bush 205
Hedgehog Report has Kerry winning at 296, Bush Getting 242.
This site uses methods that heavily favor a Bush win scenario, and still cant come up with a Bush win.
Rasmussen has Kerry with 254 EV right now, Bush with 197
Election Projection has Kerry with 327, Bush with 211
Robert Silvey has Kerry with 291, Bush with 247.
All have Florida moving more and more strongly into the solidly Kerry column.
http://www.ospolitics.org/blog/archives/2004/06/24/electoral_.phpThings are looking more and more positive for Kerry/Edwards. No one is projecting a Bush win in he electoral college. I don not think that even an October surprise, even capturing Osama bin Laden, would turn enough around for Bush to give him an electoral college win.
I noted very early on, as early as may, that Kerry was strongly focusing on firming up a win in the electoral college, and focusing less on the popular vote. He is virtually copying the strategy that George Bush folloewd in 2000, going for electoral votes, rather than a popular win. BUt fortinaltely for Kerry, the states that are giging him his electoral votes are also very densely populated, and therefore are very likely to give him a popular vote win.
Not bad for a guy who is called a flip flopper, someone who will not defend America from terrorists like George Bush does, and someone who does not have the family values that Bush is so in touch with.