THE MATH Update – Monday, May 5 – A Range of Possibilities for North Carolina and Indiana

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Update – Monday, May 5 – A Range of Possibilities for North Carolina and Indiana

4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

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First, a visual:




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TODAY’S STANDINGS:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,849.0 of 3,253.0 – 87.6%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,744.5 (280 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,608.5 (416 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 677

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,491.5 (135 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,339.5 (287 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 404

Senator Obama needs 31.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 68.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 80 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 29.3%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 212 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%

Huckabee Index – 61 (or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed)

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BEST SCENARIO FOR SENATOR OBAMA IN NORTH CAROLINA AND INDIANA

POLL NC: Obama +10 (PPP)
POLL IN: Obama +2 (Zogby)

The Standings Would Be:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,845.5 (179 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,694.5 (330 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 490

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,592.5 (34 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,425.5 (201 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217

Senator Obama needs 11.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 88.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 80 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 29.3%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 212 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%

Huckabee Index – 61 (or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed)

********************************************

BEST SCENARIO FOR SENATOR CLINTON IN NORTH CAROLINA AND INDIANA

POLL NC: Obama +3 (Insider Advantage)
POLL IN: Clinton +12 (Survey USA)

The Standings Would Be:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,836.5 (188 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,703.5 (321 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 490

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,583.5 (43 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,434.5 (192 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217

Senator Obama needs 15.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 84.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 89 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 32.6%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 203 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 74.4%

Huckabee Index – 70 (or 25.6% of remaining superdelegates needed)



:dunce:

[grantcart]

1. first in to say great job

[phrigndumass]

5. You win today's cheeseburger!

mmmmmmmm ... big one!

:hi:

[Kukesa]

11. Hey, I was second. Do I at least get fries? Or a drink? n/t

[phrigndumass]

20. You win a fortune cookie!

Open it up and tell us who wins tomorrow!

:headbang:

[Kukesa]

36. Yummy cookie. However,

it says "He who does math wisely is wise indeed." That means YOU, oh wise one.

I know who I WANT to win tomorrow . . . fingers crossed.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

37. Thanks! Lucky Numbers ... 7, 11, 21, 33, 44, 47

What a nice compliment

:hi:

[grantcart]

2. IMO the most important numbers are 34-43 the spread between the worst and best

case scenarios to reach the Pelosi number.

[phrigndumass]

7. Isn't that amazing? I can see the light at the end of the tunnel

:woohoo:

[July]

38. First, phrigndumass, thanks for your updates on THE MATH.

I look forward to them.

Secondly, could you refresh my memory (please) on the difference between the "magic number" and the Huckabee number? I am looking at so many different calculators that I am losing track.

Thanks, again.

[phrigndumass]

39. You bet, here it is ...

The magic number is what it would take to reach 2,024.5 delegates, winning the nomination.

But before that happens, there will come a point when it will be impossible for the other candidate to reach their magic number. This will happen about 19 delegates before the winning candidate reaches 2,024.5. That's the Huckabee Index.

I named it after Mike Huckabee, who reached his point where it was mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination, but stayed in the race anyway.



}(

Thanks July! :hi:

[July]

43. Thanks so much; I think I knew that, but I'm getting addled.

I really enjoy your breakdowns.

[July]

44. P.S., love your DU handle. nt

[phrigndumass]

46. Thanks! Got it from a freeper who gave up on a debate with me

(long story) I wear it proudly!

[July]

48. Are you in MA? nt

[phrigndumass]

51. Illinois, Land of Lincoln and Obama!

B-)

[July]

47. OK, I'm ba-a-a-ck.

So, does your math say that if Obama gets 61/70 more delegates (either pledged or supers), he's "Huckabeed" Hillary?

Sorry to be slow.

[phrigndumass]

49. 61/70 more Supers =)

... not pledged, because the pledged are already projected. However, changes in the pledged projections can bump it up or down a couple points here and there (polls), but only if it's a large poll swing.

More simply, it's the Supers needed. 61/70 more, and Hill is Hucked.

:7

[July]

50. Thanks, I get it now.

I appreciate your taking the time to explain.

[phrigndumass]

52. Happy to do it!

:hi:

[Kukesa]

3. Yea! Another terrific post. Thanx. n/t

[phrigndumass]

8. Thanks Kukesa

:toast:

[Fyddlestyx]

4. K & R

Great work, as usual!

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks Fyddlestyx

:hi:

[Jersey Devil]

6. So, in other words, Hill has as much chance of winning as Obama does of bowling a 300

I get it

[phrigndumass]

12. LOL! We could even spot him 200 pins, same chance

:7

[Coexist]

10. Great job and a closer for Obama even worst case!

Woo hoo!

[phrigndumass]

14. The question is not "if" but "when" Obama will win!

Looks like Oregon & Kentucky will put him over the Pelosi mark

:woohoo:

[Upton]

13. Great job

you got a prediction for tomorrow?

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks! My prediction ...

Indiana:
Clinton 52-48, +2 net delegates

North Carolina:
Obama 54-46, +11 net delegates

:party:

[Upton]

53. I'll take it!

though I have concerns about both states, particularly NC since a Clinton upset there would be portrayed in the media as the beginning of the end for Obama.

[kmsarvis]

15. GREAT POST !!!

Although I think Obama will win by more than 10 in NC:kick:

[phrigndumass]

18. +10? Fingers crossed, hope so!

:hi:

[TheDoorbellRang]

17. I think her odds for a majority of pledged delegates may actually be a little worse

She's now 287 pledged delegates short of the majority of pledged delegates. With only 404 pledged delegates left, that's 287 of 404 needed, which is 71% -- even more daunting for her campaign than 68.8%

I just didn't want to cut her any slack. }(

Thanks for the update, phrigndumass! :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

24. If the green scenario came to pass, she'd need 201 of 217, or 92.6%

of the remaining pledged delegates to reach the halfway mark! I Heart Huckabee (Index)!

:pals:

[TragedyandHope]

19. Thanks for the stats!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

27. yw!

:hi:

[AllexxisF1]

21. Absolutely Great.

Thanks again Mate for another great post. After all the muck and wars on this site over the past months you have been the beacon of light of truth and fairness phrigndumass. Thank you again for your continuous good work!

[phrigndumass]

25. This, my friend, is why I started posting The Math ...

... to offset the bullshit in this forum, and to keep the posters at bay who try very hard to fill Obama supporters with doubt.

Thanks!

:hi:

[grantcart]

30. so AllexxisF1 is your brother in law? lol

[phrigndumass]

32. Another cat out of the bag, darn

I have five brothers-in-law, and they're not supposed to make it so obvious. They're used to following a script, but sometimes they improvise. Damn. I'll have to shoot off an email to my seven sisters-in-law and 43 nieces and nephews and tell them to hold off recommending my threads until I have a chance to review and edit their praise!

[ORDagnabbit]

22. there is no way clinton can make up the delegate divide. Its over and has been for a while now.

[phrigndumass]

26. Ever since she lost Texas!

... and she did lose Texas, as we know.

:hi:

[me b zola]

23. K&R!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

28. Thanks me b zola!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

29. * * * Huckabee Index will be 55, after official reports of IL & MD SD's * * *

:woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

59. No official reports yet on two IL supers ... Hucknumber at 57 Tuesday morning

57 !!!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

31. Thanks for that!

[phrigndumass]

35. yw bambino

[AlinPA]

33. Many thanks! I still have your earlier reports printed and still wonder how you got PA so close so

far ahead of time.

[phrigndumass]

34. It was in my fortune cookie!

Nah, really, it was an educated guess, with turnout-by-population projections for a heavy turnout, and poll-trends. I'm using the same method to project the popular vote for the general election, so stay tuned!

(sneak peek: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=388x4828 )

:hi:

[JBoy]

40. Great job, pda! I think Math class will be in session tomorrow night.

Assuming Clinton takes IN and Obama takes NC, and if Obama's win margin is greater than Clinton's, I think it will be impossible for the media to keep the story away from the math. They've been able to do it up to now, but a "lopsided wash" gives them little else to talk about.

[phrigndumass]

41. Tomorrow night should be **fun**

I'm looking forward to it, getting extra rest tonight. Might even make it an all-nighter! (geez, I haven't done that since college years ... more than 20 years ago)

Thanks! :hi:

[dbmk]

42. K/R -

Some phrigndumasses you gotta love.

[phrigndumass]

45. LOL ... be careful how you say that!

}( Thanks!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

54. I pray that Obama would sweep the board tomorrow and he would be nominee

it's coming I know - freedom!

[phrigndumass]

65. We need a show stopper!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

55. Thanks Darling. Hope you lose your math job here VERY soon! nt

[phrigndumass]

60. Gah! I'm vying for that GE Math promotion!

:loveya:

[Frank Booth]

56. These posts rule.

Thank you.

[phrigndumass]

61. Thanks Walter

:hi:

[TexanDem]

57. Kudos for all the hard work, but the spin is what's going to count.

[phrigndumass]

62. Thanks!

"Pelosi Club"

:hi:

[mmonk]

58. Thanks phrigndumass as always.

The path is shortening. I'm hearing Obama has a substantial lead in early voting in NC. It should be interesting to see if Clinton really closes the gap with the small town vote. I'm a little nervous but otherwise feel ok. As a delegate still going through the process, I really don't want dissention or trouble.

[phrigndumass]

63. YW, and thanks! New Zogby poll has Obama at +14 in NC ...

Don't know if that's too accurate, but I'm hoping for an 8-point win for Obama at least, in North Carolina. Let's hope the early voting numbers set the narrative for today!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

64. Morning kick

Off to work

[Rosa Luxemburg]

66. Afternoon kick