I estimate F9/11 will gain over 3% for Kerry..

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=696531#697477					


by David W. Moore					

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE					

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to the most recent Gallup survey,
more than half of all American adults (56%) either have seen
or expect, at some time, to see Michael Moore's controversial
movie, Fahrenheit 9/11, a highly critical look at the Bush
administration's decision to fight a war in Iraq. The poll was
conducted July 8-11. At the time, 8% of Americans said they
have already seen the movie, 18% expected to see it in the
theater, and 30% expected to watch the video. Among all
Americans, more people have an unfavorable than favorable
impression of the movie, but those who have seen it are
overwhelmingly favorable.	

Intentions to see the film are highly related to people's
political party orientation, but the survey shows that even a
significant number of Republicans -- 38% -- have seen or plan
to see the documentary despite its critical stance toward
Bush. More than 7 in 10 Democrats (71%) and 6 in 10
independents (60%) also have seen or expect to see the film,
with about half of each of these groups planning to see it in
a theater and the other half on video.	


I estimate F9/11 will gain over 3% for Kerry.
Here are my assumptions.
Voters are split evenly between Dens, Repubs and Independents

Assume that:
10% of registered Dems vote Rep.	
 and 10% of them switch to Kerry

10% of registered Reps vote Dem.
 and 10% of them switch to Kerry

50% of registered indies vote Rep.	
and 20% of them switch to Kerry
	
	
Then 
	
share           %Rep  seeF911 switch Total%switch
Dem     0.333   0.1     0.71    0.1     0.24%
Ind     0.333   0.5     0.6     0.2     2.00%
Rep     0.333   0.9     0.38    0.1     1.14% 

Total                                       3.37%
	

[TruthIsAll]

1. kick

[spooky3]

2. interesting, thanks