Who do you think will win and why?

[bluestateguy]

This is not a poll. Rather, I'm curious as to who you who think will win and why. I am really undecided on the question, but I feel better about Kerry's chances than I did in January.

[Birthmark]

1. Kerry will win by 12% or so.

Bush has trashed the country to such a degree and botched the WOT so badly that millions of people who otherwise would not vote will come out this time simply for the privilege of throwing his ass out of office.

[mo5quito]

2. I agree...

I do believe that Kerry/Edwards will win... but I also do not think that people can begin sitting back thinking that it's a shoe-in. That is what will get us in trouble. The momentum that has arisen against Bush over the course of the last few months needs to continue otherwise by the time Nov. 2nd comes around the people who are worked up now might get lazy again. Bush does have a lot of support... unfortunately, it is hard to guage how much support he still has because all you hear about now are the complaints against him. But yeah, I do believe the Kerry/Edwards will still win.

[newyawker99]

17. Hi mo5quito!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[GreenArrow]

3. Kerry probably

Bush is bad for business, and the business of America, as has been noted, is business.

I feel a lot less confident about this since Kerry chose Edwards. A month ago I'd have said Kerry by six to ten points. Now I think maybe six on the top end, more likely two or three. It's easy to picture another scenario where Kerry wins the popular vote and loses EC. Nader plays little to no factor.

[Dagaz]

4. Look for the October Surprise

Rove will time the bagging of bin laden such that the election happens before the euphoria wears off. My personal feeling and I have no info on this is that this Sandy Berger play isn't Rove's only card. He tends to come prepared.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. They Prolly Have OBL At The Kabul Hotel Intercontinental

NT

[blackcat77]

5. I'll say what I've been saying all along

The election is more finely-balanced than any I can remember and the issues which will decide the election may very well be out of the hands of the candidate.

When stuff that should be a non-issue, such as the Berger fuss, get so much ink, you know that it's very, very tight.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Very Prescient.....

This election will be close...

[grytpype]

6. Kerry, because Bush has f*cked up too much.

Period. Bush is no longer electable.

[WI_DEM]

7. Kerry will win due to strong anti-Bush sentiment

similar to the sentiment held for Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Poppy in 1992. People will want a change and Kerry represents the only candidate other than Bush with a realistic chance to win.

[Ishoutandscream]

16. Spot on. It's about changing horses

The comparison to the 80 and 92 elections is right on the money.

[MoonRiver]

10. Kerry will win if the votes can be counted!

BIG IF.

[DU9598]

11. Look at independents

At the end they will break toward Kerry Edwards. Plus, Kerry will carry northern Ohio and Edwards will carry southern Ohio and Florida. With those two states it is over.

[MoonRiver]

14. Florida

How can we guarantee that Dems' votes will be counted there? I'm worried.

[OKNancy]

12. Kerry !!!!

Woohoo

This is why:

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=170-07...

Kerry Shatters Quarterly Presidential Fundraising Record with $99.2 Million; Tops Bush in Fundraising for Fourth Straight Month

7/20/2004 5:23:00 PM

To: National Desk
Contact: Michael Meehan of Kerry-Edwards Campaign, 202-464-2800


WASHINGTON, July 20 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The Kerry Edwards campaign announced today that it has raised $36.5 million in the month of June, $99.2 in the second quarter, over $160 million in 2004 and $185 million for the entire primary campaign. It is the fourth consecutive month that Kerry dramatically outraised Bush and the fourth month that it has topped $30 million.

The Kerry campaign raised $99.2 million for the second quarter of 2004, setting a record for any presidential campaign ever.

"With an average grassroots donation under $100 in June, our campaign continues to build great energy from average Americans," said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry-Edwards campaign manager. "Two- thirds of all the money raised by John Kerry has come from 750,000 contributors."

[IndianaGreen]

13. Kerry will win by a landslide. Why?

Because a clear plurality of the voters are sick and tired of Bush and his shit! And they are fearful of what would happen if Bush gets a second term...

[shivaji]

15. This one is easy to answer........just watch how the

economy is doing in september/october. As a stock market
observer, I can't remember an incumbent or his Veep
winning when economy was going DOWN. Conversely, I can't
remember an incumbent losing with the economy in
ascendancy. So, call me in last week of october, and I
will tell you if President Bush is history and
President Kerry has arrived. All other issues are incidental,
not enough to make a difference.

[Monte Carlo]

18. Kerry is a much stronger politician than many give him credit for.

Mr. Charisma he is not, but he does have a certain air about him. That intangible quality is very valuable in this race.

The sheer pride and stupidity of the Bush Administration has left them vulnerable and has given Kerry an opening. Kerry is smart enough to capitalize, and I think he can make himself to be the greatest good for the greatest amount of people.

[Tweed]

19. Nader

Millions of Americans will finally wake upand get out and vote. The other 50% of Americans that don't vote will ban together and say "Down the two party system!". Nader will win with 50% of the vote while Kerry get a terrible 26% and Bush falls to third with 24%. It will be like nothing America has seen before and nothing she will see... ah what the hell, it will be Kerry in a landslide.

[Steve Beatty]

20. Thanks for a good laugh

There is no way that you can seriously beleive what you just typed about Nader winning. Or was I just missing the sarcasm?

[Tweed]

21. I don't think you read the whole thread...

At the end I said Kerry would win in a landslide. There's no way that the 50% of people who don't vote would say "Oh, I'm going to vote for Nader." I don't seriously believe nor do I want Nader to win. I was hoping people would get a good laugh. The post was meant to be humorous.

[DjTj]

22. Kerry, because he has to. (nt)

[drmom]

23. Hate to be pessimistic but the bushies will do something to screw us again

I just have this feeling that they are in their little “war room” plotting some big media bomb to drop a week or so before the election. There are enough gullible people in this country, that it could certainly work.

[Worthless Teen]

24. It will all depend on the Iraq situation in late Oct...

...but Bush has one huge advantage: money. Kerry takes his federal funds after the covention next week, but Bush can raise money all the way up to Sept. when he recieves the GOP nod...not a good sign for Kerry.