Kerry moves ahead of Bush in PA (46 - 41)

[osaMABUSh]

Article is a few days old but notable.

"With strong showings among independents and suburban residents, Sen. John Kerry has moved ahead of President Bush in a new poll of Pennsylvania voters."

"Kerry's improved position rested in part on his strong showing among independent voters, where he held an advantage of 47 percent to 31 percent"

"Kerry held a crucial advantage in the suburban communities surrounding Philadelphia, where he led 48 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent for Nader and 8 percent undecided. Those counties were once regarded as GOP strongholds, but Gore managed to carry them in 2000, as did Gov. Ed Rendell in his 2002 race against Republican Mike Fisher."

"There was a strong gender divide in the findings, with a plurality of men favoring Bush over Kerry, 45 percent to 42 percent, but a strong majority of women favoring the Democrat, 51 percent to 37 percent."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04197/346667.stm

[WI_DEM]

1. Those 6% in the suburbs of Philly who support Nader are

primarily anti-war and hopefully they can be persauded to vote Democratic. I think the Democratic convention should have a strong anti-war plank in their platform.

[sandnsea]

2. Liberal Men of America

We own you!

The Ladies. :P

[beyurslf]

3. You don't us anything! Women have been our backbone for years

It is about damn time men step up to play!

[yellowcanine]

4. Looks like Nader may be hurting Bush more than Kerry in Philly suburbs. -

Got to be what is going on for shrub to be under 40% in a former GOP stronghold.

[monchie]

5. I grew up in the Philly suburbs--Delaware County.

I find it interesting that my old turf has been trending Dem for the past 12 years, at least in national elections. It's still pretty hardcore Republican at the local level, but I expect that to change if this trend continues. The congressman who represents the bulk of the county is a Repub, Curt Weldon, but that's partially because Repubs have managed to redistrict the more Democratic-leaning parts of the county--along the Philly city line and the Delaware River--into Philly-based safe Democratic districts.

An adjacent congressional district, which is centered around the Main Line, has been a swing district the last decade, though the Dems captured it the last 2 or 3 elections. The congressman who represents it, Joe Hoeffel, is now running for Senate against Arlen Specter.

IIRC, Delaware County went for the Democratic ticket twice in the 60s: for JFK in 1960 and LBJ in 1964. Both were regarded as flukes, JFK's victory being attributed to the county's large Catholic population, and LBJ's due to fear of Goldwater's perceived extremism. After that, however, I believe the county went for Nixon twice, in 68 and 72; Ford in 76; Reagan twice, in 80 and 84; and for Poppy Bush in 88. In 1992 and 1996, though, the county went for Clinton, then went for Gore in 2000.

Now I live in NYC, and I see similar trends in the burbs around the city, especially in Westchester and Nassau counties.

I believe what we're seeing is a realignment of the parties in the suburbs in the Northeast, and probably the Great Lakes and West Coast states as well, especially among women. In part, IMHO, the realignment is a reaction to a previous realignment, when the right-wing Dixiecrats left the Dems and joined the Republicans, thereby strengthening the far right wacko wing of the Repubs and weakening its moderate wing, which was centered in the Northeast, Great Lakes states and West Coast. Those Republican moderates are now trending more toward the Dems in national elections and some state elections--e.g., PA's Rendell, who was always popular in the Philly burbs--but the local Dems are lagging behind.

I'm crossing my fingers and hoping not only for a Kerry win in PA with strong support in the Philly burbs, but also for a Hoeffel win in the Senate race. Yes, Specter, with his Philly ties and his reputation as a Republican moderate, has usually been popular in the suburban counties, but now he's old and he's been whipped by the right wing. Plus, Hoeffel is himself a product of the suburbs.

[tom22]

6. It certainly proves

that women are smarter than men. I still contend the election won't be that close. It will be easy. The country has rejected Bush. After next week it embraces Kerry-Edwards. It is over.